MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Key $1.1818-23 Support Gets A Test On Thursday

*RES 4: $1.2070 Aug 29 high

*RES 3: $1.2009 Initial pullback low Aug 29, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1984/94 Aug 30 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.1923 Hourly recovery high Aug 31

*PRICE: $1.1904 @0903MT 

*SUP 1: $1.1845 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1818/23 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 31 low

*SUP 3: $1.1773 Aug 25 low

*SUP 4: $1.1754/58 Initial rally high Aug 17, 76.4% Fibo

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's $1.2070 rally was capped between the swing target of the

$1.1911-$1.1662 fall and the upper 2% volatility band. Has since fallen away,

aided by the appearance of a 'Gravestone Doji' like candle close on that day.

Has been correcting those $ 1.1662-$1.2070 gains, with the key near term support

from $1.1818-$1.1823 so far holding on Thursday. Some oversold conditions being

repaired, with  $1.1923-$1.1994 resistance, $1.2009 more important higher.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery So Far Halted By 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3054 Aug 8 high

*RES 3: $1.3015/22 1% vol band, 50% of $1.3269-$1.2774

*RES 2: $1.2979 Aug 29 high

*RES 1: $1.2949 76.4% Fibo of $1.2979-$1.2852

*PRICE: $1.2922 @0922GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2875/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2852 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.2979

*SUP 3: $1.2822 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.2979

*SUP 4: $1.2774 Aug 24 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery faltered on Tuesday at $1.2979, shy of a test to the

upper 1% volatility band and the next upside Fibo retrace, the 50% at $1.3022.

Downside has since explored support below $1.2900, a low so far of $1.2852,

equivalent to a 61.8% Fibo retrace, as we correct the recent gains from the Aug

24 low at $1.2774. Meanwhile, oversold near term, $1.2949 the bar to a $1.2979

return and potentially higher again. Nearest support now rises to $1.2875-85.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bullish 'Outside Day' Already Seen A 38.2% Fibo Retrace

*RES 4: Y111.76 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y111.38 50% Fibo of Y114.50-Y108.27

*RES 2: Y110.95 Aug 16 high

*RES 1: Y110.67 1% vol band, Aug 31 high

*PRICE: Y110.09 @0929GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.80/88 Hourly support, Aug 31 low

*SUP 2: Y109.15/25 Hourly congestion area Aug 25-28

*SUP 3: Y108.85 Aug 23 low

*SUP 4: Y108.27/47 Aug 29 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fall was held by the lower 1% volatility band on Tuesday, just

above the year's previous Y108.13 low. The subsequent recovery created a

potentially bullish 'outside day' on the daily chart, a fresh low coupled with a

close above the previous day's high. This has already seen a move towards the

upper 1% volatility band and just above the 38.2% Fibo level at Y110.65. Support

comes from between Y109.80-Y109.15 but only below Y108.85 would caution.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting The Week's Earlier Gains

*RES 4: Y133.63 76.4% Fibo of Y141.08-Y109.51

*RES 3: Y132.74 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y132.23 Underside prev broken 5 month support line

*RES 1: Y131.71 Aug 30 high

*PRICE: Y131.01 @0939GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.68/71 50% of Y129.66-Y131.71, Aug 31 low

*SUP 2: Y130.44 61.8% Fibo of Y129.66-Y131.71

*SUP 3: Y130.14 76.4% Fibo of Y129.66-Y131.71

*SUP 4: Y129.66 Aug 28 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally has surpassed the previous Y131.41 high and is now

considering an assault on Y132.23-Y132.74 resistance. Has faltered so far at the

slightly earlier Y131.71 level, as the rise became dogged by near term

overbought conditions. In this respect, the 50% retrace level at Y130.68 has so

far held the pullback, this protecting against a greater Y130.44-Y130.14 fall,

as we give back some of the gains from Monday's Y129.66 low.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Sustained Loss Of Stg0.9190 Would Be A Concern

*RES 4: Stg0.9398 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9310 Equality rise from 0.8743 to 0.8313-0.8880

*RES 2: Stg0.9270/80 Aug 30 high, hourly base Aug 29

*RES 1: Stg0.9245/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.9206 @0946GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9186 Aug 31 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.9142 Aug 16 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.9122 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.9091 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306

*COMMENTARY* Having briefly broken above both the upper 1% volatility band and

the 4 month bull channel top on Tuesday, the rally was halted just below the

equality rise target at Stg0.9310. The subsequent pullback, aided by a 'Doji'

candle close on that day, has breached the 7 week support line and also slightly

the key near term support at Stg0.9190. Sustained loss here would concern now.

Meanwhile, resistance from Stg0.9245-Stg0.9280 in way of a recovery.

GOLD TECHS: $1295.1 Support Holds And Protects Against Deeper Correction

*RES 4: $1352.8 Sep 6 high

*RES 3: $1337.6 Nov 9 high

*RES 2: $1326.2 Aug 29 high

*RES 1: $1323.7 Aug 31 high

*PRICE: $1318.5 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: $1308.2 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1303.5 Hourly base Aug 31

*SUP 3: $1297.3 Aug 31 low

*SUP 4: $1295.1 Aug 25 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The pullback from the week's earlier $1326.2 high reached $1297.3

on Thursday, keeping support from the Aug 25 high at $1295.1 intact. This for

the time being keeps recent momentum with the upside. Have subsequently seen a

recovery to $1323.7 but back above that previous $1326.2 high is required,

before looking to extend gains towards $1337.6-$1352.8 next. Meanwhile, support

rises to $1308.2-$1303.5 ahead of that $1297.3-$1295.1 region again.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]