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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Near Term Bear Bias, $1.1818-$1.1823 Remains Key Support
*RES 4: $1.2070 Aug 29 high
*RES 3: $1.2009/14 Initial pullback low Aug 29, 1% vol band
*RES 2: $1.1984 Aug 30 high
*RES 1: $1.1930/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1881 @0830GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1849 Sep 1 low
*SUP 2: $1.1818/23 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 31 low
*SUP 3: $1.1773 Aug 25 low
*SUP 4: $1.1754/58 Initial rally high Aug 17, 76.4% Fibo
*COMMENTARY* Last weeks $1.2070 rally was capped between the swing target of the
$1.1911-$1.1662 fall and the upper 2% volatility band. Has since fallen away,
aided by the appearance of a 'Gravestone Doji' like candle close on that day.
Has been correcting those $ 1.1662-$1.2070 gains, with the key near term support
from $1.1818-$1.1823 so far holding on Thursday. Some oversold conditions being
repaired, with  $1.1984 resistance, $1.2009/14 more important higher.
     
CABLE TECHS: $1.2906-$1.2884 Keeps Immediate Interest Higher
*RES 4: $1.3080 61.8% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774
*RES 3: $1.3022/32 50% of $1.3269-$1.2774, 1% vol band 
*RES 2: $1.2996 Sep 1 high
*RES 1: $1.2965/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2922 @0837GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2906 Sep 1 low
*SUP 2: $1.2884 Initial recovery high Aug 31, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2852 Aug 31 low
*SUP 4: $1.2825 Congestion area Aug 22-24
*COMMENTARY* Support found on Thursday at $1.2852, in line with a 61.8% Fibo
retrace of the previous $1.2774-$1.2979 rise. Friday's move back above firstly
$1.2949 and then $1.2979 is a fresh positive, a high of $1.2996 so far but scope
to increase gains into $1.3022-$1.3080 next, as we continue the recovery of last
month's $1.3269-$1.2774 drop. Support now from $1.2906-$1.2884. Loss of the
latter would caution now.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Further Recovery Would Be Aided By A Y109.15-Y108.85 Hold
*RES 4: Y110.95 Aug 16 high
*RES 3: Y110.67 1% vol band, Aug 31 high
*RES 2: Y110.30/35 Hourly congestion Sep 1
*RES 1: Y109.95/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.48 @0843GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.15/20 Hourly congestion area Aug 25-28
*SUP 2: Y108.85 Aug 23 low
*SUP 3: Y108.50 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y108.13/27 Apr 17, Aug 29 lows
*COMMENTARY* The fall was held by the lower 1% volatility band last Tuesday,
just above the year's previous Y108.13 low. The subsequent recovery created a
potentially bullish 'outside day' on the daily chart, a fresh low coupled with a
close above the previous day's high. This has so far seen a move towards the
upper 1% volatility band and just above the 38.2% Fibo level at Y110.65. Support
comes from between Y109.15-20 but below Y108.85 would caution now.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Continued Fall Has Y129.63-Y129.l66 As Next Support
*RES 4: Y132.58 Underside prev broken 5 month support line
*RES 3: Y131.71 Aug 30 high
*RES 2: Y131.35 Sep 1 high
*RES 1: Y130.71 Aug 31 low, Sep 4 high
*PRICE: Y130.06 @0854GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.63/66 50% of Y127.56-Y131.71, Aug 28 low
*SUP 2: Y129.15/19 61.8% of Y127.56-Y131.71, Aug 22 high
*SUP 3: Y129.05 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y128.54 1% 76.4% Fibo of Y127.56-Y131.71
*COMMENTARY* Still undergoing some correction of last month's Y127.56-Y131.71
rise. Today's loss of Y130.14 has given the downside some further impetus, with
Y129.63-Y129.66 now the next focus. Becoming oversold on an intraday basis but
still requires a move back above Y130.71, before any real confidence in a
recovery will appear. Through here and Y131.35 then becomes the next barrier to
cross. Below Y129.63 and the correction continues, Y129.19-Y129.05 next.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Near Term Bear Bias After 8 Week Support Line Break
*RES 4: Stg0.9306 Aug 29 high
*RES 3: Stg0.9270 Aug 30 high
*RES 2: Stg0.9238/43 Aug 31 high, broken 8 week support line
*RES 1: Stg0.9223/28 Sep 1, Sep 4 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.9193 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.9165/75 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.9142/49 Aug 16 high, Sep 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.9119 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.9091 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* Broke above both the upper 1% volatility band and the 4 month bull
channel top last week but the rally was halted just below the equality rise
target at Stg0.9310. The subsequent pullback, aided by a 'Doji' candle close on
that day, has breached the 8 week support line and also the key near term
support at Stg0.9190. Sustained loss here would concern now and open potential
for a further Stg0.9142-Stg0.9091 fall. Resistance Stg0.9223-Stg0.9270.
     
GOLD TECHS: Rally Seeks Next Targets Between $1344.0-$1352.8
*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 high
*RES 3: $1352.8 Sep 6 high
*RES 2: $1344.0 1.618 swing of $1326.2-$1297.3
*RES 1: $1339.9 Sep 4 high
*PRICE: $1331.4 @0903GMT
*SUP 1: $1326.2 Aug 29 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1321.9 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1316.4 Sep 1 low
*SUP 4: $1308.2 Initial rally high Aug 31, now support
*COMMENTARY* The pullback from last week's earlier $1326.2 high reached $1297.3
on Thursday, keeping support from the Aug 25 high at $1295.1 intact. This keeps
recent momentum with the upside. Have subsequently seen a move back above that
previous $1326.2 high and this can see the upside extend gains towards
$1344.0-$1352.8 next. Meanwhile, initial support rises to that $1326.2 level and
then more importantly $1321.9-$1316.4.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]