Trial now

TD recommend to receive GBP OIS 2y1y


What to watch out for

MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Near Term Bear Bias, $1.1818-$1.1823 Remains Key Support
*RES 4: $1.2070 Aug 29 high
*RES 3: $1.2009/14 Initial pullback low Aug 29, 1% vol band
*RES 2: $1.1984 Aug 30 high
*RES 1: $1.1930/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1881 @0830GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1849 Sep 1 low
*SUP 2: $1.1818/23 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 31 low
*SUP 3: $1.1773 Aug 25 low
*SUP 4: $1.1754/58 Initial rally high Aug 17, 76.4% Fibo
*COMMENTARY* Last weeks $1.2070 rally was capped between the swing target of the
$1.1911-$1.1662 fall and the upper 2% volatility band. Has since fallen away,
aided by the appearance of a 'Gravestone Doji' like candle close on that day.
Has been correcting those $ 1.1662-$1.2070 gains, with the key near term support
from $1.1818-$1.1823 so far holding on Thursday. Some oversold conditions being
repaired, with  $1.1984 resistance, $1.2009/14 more important higher.
CABLE TECHS: $1.2906-$1.2884 Keeps Immediate Interest Higher
*RES 4: $1.3080 61.8% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774
*RES 3: $1.3022/32 50% of $1.3269-$1.2774, 1% vol band 
*RES 2: $1.2996 Sep 1 high
*RES 1: $1.2965/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2922 @0837GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2906 Sep 1 low
*SUP 2: $1.2884 Initial recovery high Aug 31, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2852 Aug 31 low
*SUP 4: $1.2825 Congestion area Aug 22-24
*COMMENTARY* Support found on Thursday at $1.2852, in line with a 61.8% Fibo
retrace of the previous $1.2774-$1.2979 rise. Friday's move back above firstly
$1.2949 and then $1.2979 is a fresh positive, a high of $1.2996 so far but scope
to increase gains into $1.3022-$1.3080 next, as we continue the recovery of last
month's $1.3269-$1.2774 drop. Support now from $1.2906-$1.2884. Loss of the
latter would caution now.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Further Recovery Would Be Aided By A Y109.15-Y108.85 Hold
*RES 4: Y110.95 Aug 16 high
*RES 3: Y110.67 1% vol band, Aug 31 high
*RES 2: Y110.30/35 Hourly congestion Sep 1
*RES 1: Y109.95/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.48 @0843GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.15/20 Hourly congestion area Aug 25-28
*SUP 2: Y108.85 Aug 23 low
*SUP 3: Y108.50 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y108.13/27 Apr 17, Aug 29 lows
*COMMENTARY* The fall was held by the lower 1% volatility band last Tuesday,
just above the year's previous Y108.13 low. The subsequent recovery created a
potentially bullish 'outside day' on the daily chart, a fresh low coupled with a
close above the previous day's high. This has so far seen a move towards the
upper 1% volatility band and just above the 38.2% Fibo level at Y110.65. Support
comes from between Y109.15-20 but below Y108.85 would caution now.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Continued Fall Has Y129.63-Y129.l66 As Next Support
*RES 4: Y132.58 Underside prev broken 5 month support line
*RES 3: Y131.71 Aug 30 high
*RES 2: Y131.35 Sep 1 high
*RES 1: Y130.71 Aug 31 low, Sep 4 high
*PRICE: Y130.06 @0854GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.63/66 50% of Y127.56-Y131.71, Aug 28 low
*SUP 2: Y129.15/19 61.8% of Y127.56-Y131.71, Aug 22 high
*SUP 3: Y129.05 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y128.54 1% 76.4% Fibo of Y127.56-Y131.71
*COMMENTARY* Still undergoing some correction of last month's Y127.56-Y131.71
rise. Today's loss of Y130.14 has given the downside some further impetus, with
Y129.63-Y129.66 now the next focus. Becoming oversold on an intraday basis but
still requires a move back above Y130.71, before any real confidence in a
recovery will appear. Through here and Y131.35 then becomes the next barrier to
cross. Below Y129.63 and the correction continues, Y129.19-Y129.05 next.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Near Term Bear Bias After 8 Week Support Line Break
*RES 4: Stg0.9306 Aug 29 high
*RES 3: Stg0.9270 Aug 30 high
*RES 2: Stg0.9238/43 Aug 31 high, broken 8 week support line
*RES 1: Stg0.9223/28 Sep 1, Sep 4 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.9193 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.9165/75 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.9142/49 Aug 16 high, Sep 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.9119 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.9091 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* Broke above both the upper 1% volatility band and the 4 month bull
channel top last week but the rally was halted just below the equality rise
target at Stg0.9310. The subsequent pullback, aided by a 'Doji' candle close on
that day, has breached the 8 week support line and also the key near term
support at Stg0.9190. Sustained loss here would concern now and open potential
for a further Stg0.9142-Stg0.9091 fall. Resistance Stg0.9223-Stg0.9270.
GOLD TECHS: Rally Seeks Next Targets Between $1344.0-$1352.8
*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 high
*RES 3: $1352.8 Sep 6 high
*RES 2: $1344.0 1.618 swing of $1326.2-$1297.3
*RES 1: $1339.9 Sep 4 high
*PRICE: $1331.4 @0903GMT
*SUP 1: $1326.2 Aug 29 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1321.9 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1316.4 Sep 1 low
*SUP 4: $1308.2 Initial rally high Aug 31, now support
*COMMENTARY* The pullback from last week's earlier $1326.2 high reached $1297.3
on Thursday, keeping support from the Aug 25 high at $1295.1 intact. This keeps
recent momentum with the upside. Have subsequently seen a move back above that
previous $1326.2 high and this can see the upside extend gains towards
$1344.0-$1352.8 next. Meanwhile, initial support rises to that $1326.2 level and
then more importantly $1321.9-$1316.4.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: