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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Eyes Long Term Fibo Resistance At $1.2167
*RES 4: $1.2223 1.618 swing of $1.2070-$1.1823
*RES 3: $1.2183 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340
*RES 1: $1.2093/05 Intraday high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2063 @0852GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2010/25 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1980/84 Sep 1 high, Aug 30 highs, now support
*SUP 3: $1.1950 Sep 6 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.1920/25 Series highs/lows Aug 31-Sep 6
*COMMENTARY* The move above $1.2070 releases the hold that the 'Gravestone Doji'
had over price since Aug 29. A peak of $1.2093 so far, before once again some
overbought hourly conditions have come into play. Looking to $1.2025-$1.2010 to
provide initial support, the $1.1984-$1.1980 region to provide a potentially
stronger base below. Any loss here now would caution. Above $1.2093 and the
minor swing target at $1.2105 provides the bar to a further $1.2167 rise.
CABLE TECHS: Recovery Has Potential To Reach $1.3152-$1.3184 Next
*RES 4: $1.3269 Aug 3 high
*RES 3: $1.3252 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.3184 1.618 proj'n from $1.2852 to $1.2774-$1.2979
*RES 1: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774
*PRICE: $1.3133 @0856GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3080/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3033 Sep 7 low
*SUP 3: $1.2996 Sep 1 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2979 Aug 29 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Support found last Thursday at $1.2852, in line with a 61.8% Fibo
retrace of the previous $1.2774-$1.2979 rise. The subsequent move back above
$1.2979 was a fresh positive, with scope to increase gains through $1.3080 and
then the swing target at $1.3114, as we continue the recovery of last month's
$1.3269-$1.2774 drop. Support now from $1.3095-$1.3033 and then Friday's 1.2996
high. Above $1.3114 and look for a continued $1.3152-$1.3184 rise.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Pressure Continues, Y107.51-Y107.36 Next Targets
*RES 4: Y108.97 Hourly recovery high Sep 7 (2)
*RES 3: Y108.72 Hourly recovery high Sep 7 (1)
*RES 2: Y108.45 Sep 6 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y108.05/15 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y107.71 @0910GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.51 Jul 2016 high, now support
*SUP 2: Y107.36 1.618 swing of Y108.73-Y110.95
*SUP 3: Y107.06 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y106.51 61.8% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67
*COMMENTARY* The week's earlier break below Y108.85 was the initial concern,
Thursday's loss of Y108.45-Y108.39 then the confirmation of a fresh downside
assault. This has broken  below the year's previous Y108.13 low, as we extend
towards the next band of support from between Y107.51-Y107.36. This just above
the lower 2% volatility band at Y107.06 and the longer term Fibo level at
Y106.51. Resistance currently from beneath Y108.05-15 and then Y108.47-Y108.72.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Near Term Loss Of Y129.80 Raises Some Concern
*RES 4: Y131.09/16 Sep 7 high, 76.4% of Y131.71-Y129.37
*RES 3: Y130.70/75 Pivot point over last two weeks
*RES 2: Y130.45/50 Minor hourly congestion Sep 7
*RES 1: Y130.15/20 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y129.90 @0930GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.37 Sep 5, Sep 6 lows
*SUP 2: Y129.15/19 61.8% of Y127.56-Y131.71, Aug 22 high
*SUP 3: Y128.54 76.4% Fibo of Y127.56-Y131.71
*SUP 4: Y128.31 1.618 swing of Y129.37-Y131.09
*COMMENTARY* This week's correction of the Y131.71-Y129.37 fall faltered at
Y131.09, just shy of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y131.16. The subsequent
fall has been swift, today losing support from Y129.80, albeit only briefly so
far. This can see Y129.37 come under pressure again, the Y129.19-Y129.15 area
below seen as more important and contains the lower 1% volatility band.
Resistance Y130.15-Y130.50 but the Y130.70-75 area more significant.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.9203-Stg0.9213 In Way Of Better Recovery
*RES 4: Stg0.9279 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Stg0.9227/38 Sep 4, Aug 31 highs
*RES 2: Stg0.9213 Sep 5 high
*RES 1: Stg0.9203 Sep 7 high
*PRICE: Stg0.9167 @0940GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.9140/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.9119 Sep 7 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.9100 1.618 swing Stg0.9149-Stg0.9226
*SUP 4: Stg0.9091/95 38.2% Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306, 1% vol band
*COMMENTARY* Broke the upper 1% volatility band and the 4 month bull channel top
last week but the rally was halted just below the equality rise target at
Stg0.9310. The subsequent pullback, aided by a 'Doji' candle close, has breached
the 8 week support line and also the key near term support at Stg0.9190.
Sustained loss here would concern now and open potential for a further fall
towards next key Stg0.9100-Stg0.9091. Resistance Stg0.9203-Stg0.9213.
GOLD TECHS: Rally Continues, $1344.4-$1337.8 Provides Support
*RES 4: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4
*RES 3: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high
*RES 2: $1367.3 Aug 2 2016 high
*RES 1: $1357.7 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1351.8 @0951GMT
*SUP 1: $1344.4 Sep 5 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1337.8 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1331.7 Sep 6 low
*SUP 4: $1326.2 Aug 29 high, Sep 5 low
*COMMENTARY* The rally continues, moving through what looked decent resistance
from between $1352.8-$1354.3. The latter the current level of the 9 month bull
channel projection. A high of 1357.7 so far, before not unnaturally encountering
some near term overbought conditions. Now looking at $1344.4-$1337.8 to provide
support, a loss of the latter would suggest some caution. Meanwhile, back above
$1357.7 and $1367.3 stands in the way of $1375.4-$1380.3.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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