Free Trial

MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Phase Continues Above Key $1.1823 Support
*RES 4: $1.2052 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2033/34 76.4% of $1.2093-$1.1837, Sep 20 high
*RES 2: $1.2005 Sep 22 high
*RES 1: $1.1970/80 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1907 @0855GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1891/98 Hourly base Sep 21, Sep 22 low
*SUP 2: $1.1861 Sep 20 low
*SUP 3: $1.1823/27 Aug 31 low, 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2093
*SUP 4: $1.1764/73 76.4% of $1.1662-$1.2093, Aug 25 low
*COMMENTARY* The recent consolidation phase above key $1.1823 support continues
but resistance from $1.2005 and $1.2034 has capped the rallies over the last few
days and near term pressure has returned towards $1.1891-$1.1861 support. The
latter is the protection to that important $1.1823 level and with it the
prospect of a deeper correction of gains from the Aug 17 low at $1.1662. Within
the range, nearest resistance now $1.1970-$1.1980.
CABLE TECHS: Key $1.3450 Support Survives Another Test
*RES 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high
*RES 3: $1.3617/19 Sep 15, Sep 18 highs
*RES 2: $1.3596/01 Sep 22 high, 4 year falling res line
*RES 1: $1.3570/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3532 @0908GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3470/80 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3450/52 Sep 22, Sep 20 lows
*SUP 3: $1.3406 Sep 14 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.3321/26 38.2% $1.2774-$1.3659, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY*  The key near term support above $1.3450 received another test last
Friday. This area seen as protecting against anything more untoward at present
and specifically a deeper correction of gains from the Aug 24 low at $1.2774. In
the interim, rallies are still faced with initial resistance from
$1.3570-$1.3601, the latter the current level of the 4 year falling resistance
line. The $1.3617-19 area however, is still currently viewed as more important.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of Congested Y112.81-Y113.00 Resistance
*RES 4: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04
*RES 3: Y113.00 50% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32
*RES 2: Y112.72/81 Sep 21 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.50-Y107.32
*RES 1: Y112.48 Sep 22 high
*PRICE: Y112.11 @0913GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.65 Sep 22 low
*SUP 2: Y111.45/50 Hourly congestion area Sep 20
*SUP 3: Y111.04/11 Sep 14 high, Sep 20 low 
*SUP 4: Y110.66/67 38.2% Fibo Y107.32-Y112.72, Aug 31 high
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a move through the Y112.20-Y112.42 barrier, toward
the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y112.81. This the first of congested resistance
from between here and Y113.00. This an area that also includes the year's
falling resistance line at Y112.83 and a longer term 50% Fibo retracement. Will
need to clear here, before fresh upside impetus will follow. In the meantime,
support from Y111.65-Y111.45, loss of the latter would caution now.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting Lower After 61.8% Fibo Retrace Caps Rise
*RES 4: Y135.04 Median line drawn off Apr,Jun lows, Aug highs
*RES 3: Y134.61 November 2015 high
*RES 2: Y134.41 61.8% Fibo of Y149.80-Y109.51, Sep 22 high
*RES 1: Y134.00/15 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y133.31 @0923GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.26/27 Sep 20, Sep 19 lows
*SUP 2: Y132.95 Hourly base Sep 18
*SUP 3: Y132.51 50% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41
*SUP 4: Y132.02/07 Sep 12 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41
*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 last week, in line with a test to the
61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term  Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. Above here and still
confronted with resistance from between Y134.610-Y135.04, before the way becomes
clear again to make further gains. In the interim, we have seen a fall, the
Y133.26-27 area now under threat, beneath which opens the prospect of a deeper
Y132.95-Y132.07 decline.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8900 Cap Sees Pressure Return To The Downside
*RES 4: Stg0.8977/82 38.2% Stg0.9306-Stg0.8774, Sep 12 low
*RES 3: Stg0.8900/08 23.6% Fibo retrace, recovery high Sep 14
*RES 2: Stg0.8886 Sep 22 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8850/60 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8792 @0935GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8774/84 Sep 15, Sep 21 lows
*SUP 2: Stg0.8743 Jul 14 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8692 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306
*SUP 4: Stg0.8687 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Unable to break back above the key Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 resistance
last week. Through here needed before the correction of recent losses from
Stg0.9306 can get a real kick start. As a result, pressure has again returned to
the downside and on Stg0.8784-Stg0.8774. The latter seen as the protection to
the still important Stg0.8743 level and the added potential for a further
Stg0.8692 fall. In the meantime, Stg0.8850-60 provides near term resistance.
GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower As Rally Falters Below 9 Month Channel Top
*RES 4: $1334.5 Sep 14 high
*RES 3: $1322.7 Sep 12 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1316.2 Sep 20 high
*RES 1: $1304.7 Sep 18 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1295.8 @0943GMT
*SUP 1: $1288.1 Sep 21 low
*SUP 2: $1281.2 50% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7
*SUP 3: $1274.7 Aug 25 low
*SUP 4: $1267.4 Aug 15 low
*COMMENTARY* After breaking below the 2 month rising support line last week, the
fall has found some support from $1288.1, as we correct gains from the Jul 10
low at $1204.8. To be of any substance however, will need to see a recovery
through $1304.7, the underside of that support line residing at the higher
$1317.9 by time today. Below $1288.1 and the fall can continue, the 50% Fibo
retrace at $1281.2, the next level of note, ahead of the Aug 25 low at $1274.7.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ (function appendPosts () { var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0]; var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span'); policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts); policyPosts.style.display = "block"; var empolicyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('em-policy-posts-wrapper')[0]; var empolicyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.em-policy-posts-span'); empolicyPostsMenu.append(empolicyPosts); empolicyPosts.style.display = "block"; var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0]; var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span'); dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts); dataPosts.style.display = "block"; })(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){ item.href="/core/users/email_login/"; item.innerHTML="Log In"; }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'submission_click', 'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks", 'event_label': "Posts" }); }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){ item.onsubmit=function(e){ ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15}); window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'signup_click', 'event_category': "Signup", 'event_action': 'CompletedForm', 'event_label': 'pageTitle', 'event_value': 15 }); } }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) { img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return false; }); }); document .querySelector(".site-logo img") .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return true; }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'submission_click', 'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks", 'event_label': "Posts" }); }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){ item.onsubmit=function(e){ ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15}); window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'signup_click', 'event_category': "Signup", 'event_action': 'CompletedForm', 'event_label': 'pageTitle', 'event_value': 15 }); } }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)"); window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts"); }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) { document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); let country_code = c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto"; document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); } const fetch = function (err, res) { var r = new XMLHttpRequest(); r.open("GET", err, !0), (r.responseType = "json"), (r.onload = function () { var err = r.status; res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response); }), r.send(); }; function setupCountry() { if (window.preventDuplicateExec) { return; } window.preventDuplicateExec = true; window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({ threshold: 0, firstOnly: true, oneTime: true, selector: ".signup-form", onIntersect: (entry) => { // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way: let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData"); if (!ipapiData) { fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) { console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API "); localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData)); populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData); }); } else { console.log( "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage" ); populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData)); } }, }); } setupCountry(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ /* const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container'); const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content'); const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream'); if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) { if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) { console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight); stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px'; } } */ }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) { document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); let country_code = c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto"; document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); } const fetch = function (err, res) { var r = new XMLHttpRequest(); r.open("GET", err, !0), (r.responseType = "json"), (r.onload = function () { var err = r.status; res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response); }), r.send(); }; function setupCountry() { if (window.preventDuplicateExec) { return; } window.preventDuplicateExec = true; window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({ threshold: 0, firstOnly: true, oneTime: true, selector: ".signup-form", onIntersect: (entry) => { // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way: let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData"); if (!ipapiData) { fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) { console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API "); localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData)); populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData); }); } else { console.log( "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage" ); populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData)); } }, }); } setupCountry(); });