MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Phase Continues Above Key $1.1823 Support

*RES 4: $1.2052 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2033/34 76.4% of $1.2093-$1.1837, Sep 20 high

*RES 2: $1.2005 Sep 22 high

*RES 1: $1.1970/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1907 @0855GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1891/98 Hourly base Sep 21, Sep 22 low

*SUP 2: $1.1861 Sep 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.1823/27 Aug 31 low, 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2093

*SUP 4: $1.1764/73 76.4% of $1.1662-$1.2093, Aug 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The recent consolidation phase above key $1.1823 support continues

but resistance from $1.2005 and $1.2034 has capped the rallies over the last few

days and near term pressure has returned towards $1.1891-$1.1861 support. The

latter is the protection to that important $1.1823 level and with it the

prospect of a deeper correction of gains from the Aug 17 low at $1.1662. Within

the range, nearest resistance now $1.1970-$1.1980.

CABLE TECHS: Key $1.3450 Support Survives Another Test

*RES 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high

*RES 3: $1.3617/19 Sep 15, Sep 18 highs

*RES 2: $1.3596/01 Sep 22 high, 4 year falling res line

*RES 1: $1.3570/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3532 @0908GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3470/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3450/52 Sep 22, Sep 20 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3406 Sep 14 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3321/26 38.2% $1.2774-$1.3659, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY*  The key near term support above $1.3450 received another test last

Friday. This area seen as protecting against anything more untoward at present

and specifically a deeper correction of gains from the Aug 24 low at $1.2774. In

the interim, rallies are still faced with initial resistance from

$1.3570-$1.3601, the latter the current level of the 4 year falling resistance

line. The $1.3617-19 area however, is still currently viewed as more important.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of Congested Y112.81-Y113.00 Resistance

*RES 4: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04

*RES 3: Y113.00 50% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32

*RES 2: Y112.72/81 Sep 21 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.50-Y107.32

*RES 1: Y112.48 Sep 22 high

*PRICE: Y112.11 @0913GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.65 Sep 22 low

*SUP 2: Y111.45/50 Hourly congestion area Sep 20

*SUP 3: Y111.04/11 Sep 14 high, Sep 20 low 

*SUP 4: Y110.66/67 38.2% Fibo Y107.32-Y112.72, Aug 31 high

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a move through the Y112.20-Y112.42 barrier, toward

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y112.81. This the first of congested resistance

from between here and Y113.00. This an area that also includes the year's

falling resistance line at Y112.83 and a longer term 50% Fibo retracement. Will

need to clear here, before fresh upside impetus will follow. In the meantime,

support from Y111.65-Y111.45, loss of the latter would caution now.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting Lower After 61.8% Fibo Retrace Caps Rise

*RES 4: Y135.04 Median line drawn off Apr,Jun lows, Aug highs

*RES 3: Y134.61 November 2015 high

*RES 2: Y134.41 61.8% Fibo of Y149.80-Y109.51, Sep 22 high

*RES 1: Y134.00/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y133.31 @0923GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.26/27 Sep 20, Sep 19 lows

*SUP 2: Y132.95 Hourly base Sep 18

*SUP 3: Y132.51 50% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41

*SUP 4: Y132.02/07 Sep 12 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41

*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 last week, in line with a test to the

61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term  Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. Above here and still

confronted with resistance from between Y134.610-Y135.04, before the way becomes

clear again to make further gains. In the interim, we have seen a fall, the

Y133.26-27 area now under threat, beneath which opens the prospect of a deeper

Y132.95-Y132.07 decline.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8900 Cap Sees Pressure Return To The Downside

*RES 4: Stg0.8977/82 38.2% Stg0.9306-Stg0.8774, Sep 12 low

*RES 3: Stg0.8900/08 23.6% Fibo retrace, recovery high Sep 14

*RES 2: Stg0.8886 Sep 22 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8850/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8792 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8774/84 Sep 15, Sep 21 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8743 Jul 14 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8692 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break back above the key Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 resistance

last week. Through here needed before the correction of recent losses from

Stg0.9306 can get a real kick start. As a result, pressure has again returned to

the downside and on Stg0.8784-Stg0.8774. The latter seen as the protection to

the still important Stg0.8743 level and the added potential for a further

Stg0.8692 fall. In the meantime, Stg0.8850-60 provides near term resistance.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower As Rally Falters Below 9 Month Channel Top

*RES 4: $1334.5 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: $1322.7 Sep 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1316.2 Sep 20 high

*RES 1: $1304.7 Sep 18 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1295.8 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: $1288.1 Sep 21 low

*SUP 2: $1281.2 50% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 3: $1274.7 Aug 25 low

*SUP 4: $1267.4 Aug 15 low

*COMMENTARY* After breaking below the 2 month rising support line last week, the

fall has found some support from $1288.1, as we correct gains from the Jul 10

low at $1204.8. To be of any substance however, will need to see a recovery

through $1304.7, the underside of that support line residing at the higher

$1317.9 by time today. Below $1288.1 and the fall can continue, the 50% Fibo

retrace at $1281.2, the next level of note, ahead of the Aug 25 low at $1274.7.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]