MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Faltering Beneath 76.4% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1.1911 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1880 Oct 12 high

*RES 2: $1.1858 Oct 19-Oct 20 highs

*RES 1: $1.1843 76.4% Fibo of $1.1880-$1.1725

*PRICE: $1.1812 @0900GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1793 Oct 24 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.1750/60 Congestion area Oct 24-25

*SUP 3: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows

*SUP 4: $1.1705 Congestion area Oct 5-6

*COMMENTARY* Pressure has been back on the base of the recent consolidation, a

low of $1.1725 on Monday. The subsequent bounce helps to remove some of the

resultant oversold conditions and the move above $1.1795 is encouraging for at

least a $1.1826-$1.1843 rise. As a result, nearest support now $1.1793 but the

$1.1760-$1.1750 area is of more importance lower. Loss will caution and put

$1.1725-$1.1705 in focus again. Above $1.1843 and $1.1858-$1.1880 next higher.

CABLE TECHS: Correction Runs Out Of Steam At 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3343 50% of $1.3659-$1.3027, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.3338 Oct 13 high

*RES 2: $1.3301 1.618 swing of $1.3228-$1.3110

*RES 1: $1.3279 76.4% Fibo of $1.3338-$1.3088

*PRICE: $1.3215 @0906GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3200/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3158 Oct 23 low

*SUP 3: $1.3140 Initial recovery Oct 25, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3110 Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1.3165 has started a correction, initially of the

losses seen since the Oct 13 high at $1.3338. With the move back above

$1.3228-29 this now sees the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3279 as the next

resistance to note. In the meantime, support rises to $1.3200-10, a hold above

here would increase the chances of further gains, with $1.3301-$1.3343 the next

area of interest higher. Below $1.3200 would caution in the near term now.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Unable As Yet To Reach The 61.8% Fibo Level At Y114.33

*RES 4: Y115.32 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y114.66 1.618 swing of Y113.51-Y111.65

*RES 2: Y114.33 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32

*RES 1: Y114.25 Oct 25 high

*PRICE: Y113.68 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.35/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y113.15/24 Oct 19 high, Oct 23 low

*SUP 3: Y112.95 Hourly basing area Oct 18-19

*SUP 4: Y112.55/60 Hourly congestion area Oct 19

*COMMENTARY* Broke briefly above last Friday's Y114.10 high and the upper 1%

volatility band at the same level, on Wednesday. However, we still remain

without a test to the next upside obstacle, the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

Y114.33. This then the key to a higher Y114.66 and perhaps Y115.32 rise. In the

meantime, Y113.4-Y113.35 now provides support to the key Y113.24-Y113.15 area.

Loss here would concern now.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Spurns The Opportunity To Cash In On A Y134.41 Break

*RES 4: Y135.70 4 month rising resistance line

*RES 3: Y134.77 1.618 swing of Y134.13-Y133.10

*RES 2: Y134.64 1.618 swing of Y133.50-Y131.66

*RES 1: Y134.41/50 61.8 of Y149.80-Y109.51, Oct 25 high

*PRICE: Y134.20 @0917GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.90/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y133.75 Oct 25 low

*SUP 3: Y133.35 Initial rally high Oct 24, now support

*SUP 4: Y133.10 Hourly basing area Oct 19, Oct 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a move above the Y134.41 Fibo level, above which

there is still the Y134.64-Y13.77 area to negotiate, before the upside becomes

free for an eventual challenge to the 4 month rising resistance line at Y135.70.

As a result, support moves higher, the Y134.00-Y133.75 range should now be able

to deal with any setbacks, if the rally is to continue at this stage. Loss would

disappoint now and put pressure back on Y133.35-Y133.10.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8994 Break Still The Key To Any Real Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: Stg0.9015/22 1% volatility band, Oct 20 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8994 Hourly high Oct 20

*RES 2: Stg0.8976/80 Oct 24 high, hourly recovery high Oct 20

*RES 1: Stg0.8950/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8946 @0926GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8895/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8880/86 Oct 25, Oct 23 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8855/56 61.8% Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032, Oct 16 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8830/37 Swing Stg0.8886-Stg0.8976, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Rallies this week have continued to falter within the key near term

Stg0.8970-Stg0.8994 resistance area. Will need to see a break back above the

latter, before the immediate bias can return to the topside and for another tilt

at the more important Stg0.9015-Stg0.9032 area. In the meantime, look to

Stg0.8900-Stg0.8895 for initial support, loss would disappoint now and put

pressure back on the recent Stg0.8886-Stg0.8880 lows.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Approaches The Upper 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2927 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061gh

*RES 3: $1.2865 2.618x $1.2433-$1.2591 from $1.2451 

*RES 2: $1.2852 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2817 Oct 25 high

*PRICE: $1.2805 @0931GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2745 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2722/24 Oct 25 hourly low/hourly high

*SUP 3: $1.2693 Oct 24 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2661/69 Hourly congestion area Oct 23-24

*COMMENTARY* The creep higher turned into a sprint on Wednesday. The break above

$1.2723-$1.2779, now sees the upper 2% volatility band, rising to $1.2852 by

time today, as the next potential barrier to this rise. This a known curb on

either side of the market and as yet, never above it this year, and only briefly

below for three days last month. Above and $1.2865-$1.2927 are next targets.

Support $1.2745-$1.2722, loss would temper the rise.

GOLD TECHS: $1282.5-$1286.1 Resistance After Test Of $1271.4 Support

*RES 4: $1299.0 Congestion area Oct 13-Oct 16

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1286.1 Oct 23 high

*RES 1: $1282.5 76.4% Fibo of $1286.1-$1271.0

*PRICE: $1278.0 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.0 Oct 25 low

*SUP 2: $1260.7 Oct 9 low

*SUP 3: $1251.7 Aug 8 low

*SUP 4: $1245.9 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* The $1271.4 support level is coming under pressure, below which

there is some minor support from around $1264.3 to consider next. Loss here will

once again put the key Oct 9 low at $1260.7 back under pressure. As a result,

resistance now comes from $1281.4 and then the Oct 23 high at $1286.1. Need back

above the latter before the near term outlook can improve. Below $1260.7 would

caution and suggest there is eventual scope for a deeper $1245.9-$1240.9 fall.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]