MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correction Continues, $1.1680 Ahead Of Key $1.1725-30

Area

*RES 4: $1.1790 Initial low Oct 20, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1753 Oct 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1675/80 Hourly highs Oct 26

*PRICE: $1.1633 @0945GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1595/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1574 Oct 27 low

*SUP 3: $1.1524 5 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: $1.1506 1.618 swing of $1.1649-$1.1880

*COMMENTARY* Still finding near term support from above last Friday's $1.1574

low, as we continue to correct some near term oversold conditions. Having moved

above $1.1644, this now sees $1.1675-$1.1680 as the next resistance area of

note, before we reach the more important $1.1725-$1.1730 region. A move back

above the latter is needed to disrupt recent downside momentum. In the meantime,

look to $1.1605-$1.1595 as protection against a fresh down move.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Meets Tougher Resistance From Between $1.3230-$1.3236

*RES 4: $1.3316 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3280 Oct 26 high

*RES 2: $1.3230/36 76.4% $1.3280-$1.3070, Hourly high Oct 26

*RES 1: $1.3223 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3202 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3166 Hourly low Oct 30

*SUP 2: $1.3127 Oct 30 low

*SUP 3: $1.3070 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1.3052 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.3070 on Friday, just above the lower 1%

volatility band, which has moved by time to $1.3052 today. Had become oversold

in the near term and is still correcting the most recent losses from the Oct 26

high at $1.3280. Has reached $1.3223 so far but likely needing a further move

above $1.3230-$1.3236, before near term bias returns to the topside. Support

also rises, $1.3166-$1.3127 now the protection against a return lower.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.50-55 Now Becomes Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: Y114.45/60 Oct 27 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y114.10 Hourly congestion Oct 26-27

*RES 2: Y113.84 Oct 30 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y113.50/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.26 @1007GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.96/05 Intraday low, 50% of Y111.65-Y114.45

*SUP 2: Y112.70/72 Initial high Oct 19, 61.8% Fibo retrace

*SUP 3: Y112.29/31 Oct 19 low, 76.4% of Y111.65-Y114.45

*SUP 4: Y111.65 Oct 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday's loss of Y113.50 support, has started a correction, the

subsequent loss of Y113.24 adding fuel to the fire. Is currently finding support

from Y112.96, as some near term oversold conditions come into play. Y113.50-55

now becomes resistance, Y113.84-Y114.10 on any break higher. Need back above the

latter before bias can return higher. Below Y112.96 and look for the correction

to continue, Y112.72-Y112.29 the next area of support.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Pullback Continues, Y131.41-Y131.03 The Next Band Of Support

*RES 4: Y133.46 Hourly highs Oct 26

*RES 3: Y132.96 Oct 27 high

*RES 2: Y132.59 Initial low Oct 27, now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.10/29 Hourly resistance, Oct 30 high

*PRICE: Y131.75 @1016GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.41/46 Aug 2 high, Oct 30 low

*SUP 2: Y131.03/09 50% of Y127.56-Y134.50, Sep 7 high

*SUP 3: Y130.39 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y130.21 61.8% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a move above the Y134.41 Fibo level last week and

paying the price for spurning this opportunity. The fall has been compounded

again by the loss of Y132.47-Y132.33 and has subsequently dipped into the next

area of support from above the Aug 2 high at Y131.41. Meanwhile, Y132.10-Y132.29

provides initial resistance and the bar to any further upside corrective

opportunity. Below Y131.41 and Y131.09-Y131.03 is the next support of note.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8830-Stg0.8840 The Current Bar To Any Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8902 Oct 27 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8880 Oct 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8851/54 Oct 26 low, hourly high Oct 27

*RES 1: Stg0.8830/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8804 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8793/00 Oct 30 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Stg0.8746 Sep 27 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8737 1.618x Stg0.9032-Stg0.8856 from Stg0.9022

*SUP 4: Stg0.8714 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The pullback has continued this week, most latterly falling below

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8813 and also slightly beneath the lower 1%

volatility band at Stg0.8800 by time today. Is however close to oversold on an

hourly basis and the Stg0.8793 low currently protects against a further fall

towards Stg0.8746-Stg0.8737 next. In the interim, resistance from Stg0.8830-40

is the bar to any near term recovery.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2807-$1.2781 Still Provides Key Near Term Support

*RES 4: $1.3015/16 Jul 5, Jul 3 highs

*RES 3: $1.2959/69 2% volatility band, Jan 31 low

*RES 2: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.2880/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2845 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2807/08 23.6% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 27 low

*SUP 2: $1.2781 Oct 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.2739 38.2% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917

*SUP 4: $1.2684 50% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a brief spike above the upper 2% volatility band, now at

$1.2959 by time today, as the upside moved to chase down the 50% Fibo retrace

level at $1.2927. A high of $1.2917 before succumbing to some overbought hourly

conditions. Now looking to $1.2807-$1.2781 support for next clues. While above,

look to $1.2880-90 for resistance now, loss however will caution and signal that

a deeper correction of gains from the Oct 19 low at $1.2451, is required.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Pegged By $1278.9 Resistance On Monday

*RES 4: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 3: $1286.1 Oct 23 high

*RES 2: $1282.6 Oct 26 high

*RES 1: $1278.9 Oct 30 high

*PRICE: $1273.7 @1038GMT

*SUP 1: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 2: $1260.7 Oct 9 low

*SUP 3: $1251.7 Aug 8 low

*SUP 4: $1248.6 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* The $1271.4 support level gave way last week, resulting in a low of

$1263.8 on Friday, just ahead of the next key level, the Oct 9 low at $1260.7.

As a result, resistance now comes from yesterday's $1278.9 high and then

Thursday's $1282.6 peak. Still need back above the latter before the near term

outlook can improve. Below $1260.7 would suggest there is eventual scope for a

deeper $1248.6-$1240.9 fall.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]