MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Breaks Above $1.1925 But So Far Lacks Conviction

*RES 4: $1.2055 1.618 swing of $1.1961-$1.1809

*RES 3: $1.2020 Equality rise from $1.1713 to $1.1554-$1.1861

*RES 2: $1.1961/66 Nov 27 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 1: $1.1940 intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1903 @1010GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1875/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1840 Hourly congestion area Nov 28-30

*SUP 3: $1.1809 Nov 20 high, Nov 30 low

*SUP 4: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, now support

*COMMENTARY* Found support on Thursday from the Nov 20 high at $1.1809, also a

61.8% retrace of the preceding $1.1713-$1.1961 rise, seen over the latter end of

last month. The subsequent recovery has squeezed back above the near term pivot

at $1.1925 but as yet without any conviction. This and some overbought hourly

conditions can conspire to see some correction, $1.1885-$1.1840 as initial

support. Above $1.1961-66 needed to prompt a further $1.2020-$1.2055 rise.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3460 Support A Gauge To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: $1.3596 Sep 22 high

*RES 3: $1.3565 1.618x 1.3027-$1.3338 from $1.3062

*RES 2: $1.3550 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.3525/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3485 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3460 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3425/30 Hourly congestion area Nov 29-30

*SUP 3: $1.3374/83 Hourly base Nov 29, Nov 27 high

*SUP 4: $1.3336 Nov 29 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally continued through $1.3483-$1.3510 resistance on Thursday,

culminating in a high earlier today at $1.3550. This leaves us just shy of a

look at next resistance from the 1.618 projection target at $1.3565. Heavily

overbought on a near term basis, $1.3460 represents initial support and a gauge

as to whether a deeper correction is required. Loss will have the potential for

a $1.3430-$1.3374 fall next. Above $1.3565 and $1.3596-$1.3622.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Recovery Continues, Y112.72-Y112.79 Next Upside Barrier

*RES 4: Y113.82 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 3: Y113.25/33 61.8% of Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 16 high

*RES 2: Y113.01 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y112.72/79 Nov 20 high, 50% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*PRICE: Y112.45 @1029GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.95/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.69/73 Nov 24 high, Nov 30 low

*SUP 3: Y111.48 Hourly high Nov 28, now support

*SUP 4: Y111.20/25 Hourly congestion area Nov 28

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has continued, moving through Y112.22-Y112.35

resistance in the process. This now sees Y112.72-Y112.79 as the next potential

target area, as we proceed to correct the Y114.74-Y110.84 fall seen during the

course of last month. As a result, support also rises, Y112.10-Y111.95

initially, with Y111.69 currently of more importance below. Above Y112.79 and

the upper 1% volatility band bars the way to Y113.25-Y113.33.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.75 Support A Likely Pointer To Intraday Direction

*RES 4: Y136.56 1.618 swing of y134.50-Y131.17

*RES 3: Y135.22 2% volatility band 

*RES 2: Y134.61 Nov 30 2015 high

*RES 1: Y134.50 Oct 25 high

*PRICE: Y133.60 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y133.24/31 Nov 24 high, initial high Nov 30

*SUP 3: Y132.65 Nov 30 low

*SUP 4: Y132.39 Initial rally high Nov 29, now support

*COMMENTARY* Broke above the recent range top and upper 1% volatility band, also

at Y133.89 by time today. Made a beeline straight towards the Oct 25 high at

134.50, pulling up just shy at Y134.38, before submitting to some heavily

overbought hourly conditions. In this respect Y133.75 support should offer

initial clues, a loss would concern and suggest some deeper correction is

required, Y133.31-Y132.65 then possible.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8747-Stg0.8761 In Way Of Better Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8900 Hourly low Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8880 Hourly recovery high Nov 28

*RES 2: Stg0.8855/61 Hourly resistance, recovery high Nov 29

*RES 1: Stg0.8842/47 Intraday high, Nov 28 low

*PRICE: Stg0.8815 @1058GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8780/89 1% volatility band, intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8766/76 Nov 2, Nov 30 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8756 1.618 swing of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8981

*SUP 4: Stg0.8745 Equality from 0.8880 to 0.8982-0.0.8847

*COMMENTARY* Found a base at Stg0.8776 on Thursday, at the beginning of some

congested support levels from between Stg0.8666-Stg0.8733, the latter the Nov 1

low. The resultant rally aided by some near term oversold conditions, now sees

resistance from Stg0.8847-Stg0.8861 as barring the way to any better correction

of losses from Tuesday's Stg0.8982 peak. Meanwhile, Stg0.8789-Stg0.8780 provides

some interim support.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Reaches Congested $1.2909-$1.2938 Area

*RES 4: $1.3014/16 Jul 3, Jul 4, Jul 5 highs

*RES 3: $1.2938 1.618 swing of $1.2837-$1.2673

*RES 2: $1.2921/27 1% volatility band, Oct 31, Oct 27 highs

*RES 1: $1.2909/17 Nov 30, Oct 27 highs

*PRICE: $1.2874 @1113GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2830/37 Hourly support, Nov 21 high

*SUP 2: $1.2804 Nov 29 low

*SUP 3: $1.2748/54 Nov 24 high, Nov 28 low

*SUP 4: $1.2715 Hourly congestion Nov 23-24

*COMMENTARY* The recovery finally broke through initial $1.2805 resistance on

Tuesday, after some intervening overbought conditions allowed a $1.2754 setback.

This allowed momentum to remain with the upside and to chase down last week's

$1.2837 high and more importantly the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2858. This now

sees congested resistance from between $1.2909-$1.2938 as barring the way

higher. Support from between $1.2837-$1.2804 currently protects the downside.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Moves Toward Range Base And Key Channel Support

*RES 4: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 3: $1299.3/7 Nov 27 high, hourly resistance

*RES 2: $1292.5 Hourly base Nov 27, now resistanxe

*RES 1: $1282.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1277.3 @1125GMT

*SUP 1: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 3: $1259.6 2017 bull channel support line

*SUP 4: $1241.9 1.618 swing of $1263.8-$1299.3

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make a break through the top of the recent range, being

capped by $1299.3-$1299.7 resistance. The subsequent fall back within the range

has been swift, leaving $1269.9-$1263.8 as the protection to the 2017 bull

channel base at $1259.6. Have to hold the latter or overall bias will swing back

to the downside and further corrections of gains initially from $1204.8 and

potentially from $1122.6. Resistance $1282.7-$1292.5.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]