MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.1812-$1.1815 Needed To Generate Fresh Upside

Focus

*RES 4: $1.1906 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1730

*RES 3: $1.1873/77 61.8% of $1.1961-$1.1730, Dec 5 high

*RES 2: $1.1848 Dec 6 high

*RES 1: $1.1812/15 Dec 11, Dec 7 highs

*PRICE: $1.1780 @1010GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1750/65 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.1728/30 1.618 swing $1.1809-$1.1940, Dec 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*COMMENTARY* Rallied into the middle of $1.1809-$1.1815 resistance on Monday,

still requiring a break above the latter, before the way becomes clear for a

better correction of losses sustained since the recent $1.1940-$1.1961 highs.

While capped around $1.1815, then the immediate risk is for a $1.1765-$1.1750

pullback. Below the latter will once again see attention focus on

$1.1730-$1.1694, ahead of the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.1650.

CABLE TECHS: Focus Again on $1.3320-$1.3293 After Support Line Breaks

*RES 4: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December

*RES 3: $1.3432 Dec 11 high

*RES 2: $1.3405/08 Hourly congestion Dec 8-Dec 11

*RES 1: $1.3381 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3332 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3314/20 1.618 swing $1.3370-$1.3461, Dec 7 low

*SUP 2: $1.3293/98 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549

*SUP 3: $1.3221 Nov 28 low

*SUP 4: $1.3196 1.618 swing of $1.3320-$1.3521

*COMMENTARY* The 4 week rising support line has given way, once again putting

the congested $1.3320-$1.3293 area back in the shop window. Only clearly below

the latter will open up the potential for a deeper $1.3221-$1.3196 fall, as the

disappointment from last week's $1.3550 cap grows. Resistance in the meantime,

comes from the day's $1.3381 high and then the $1.3405-$1.3408 region. Back

above here needed to reignite upside interest.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fibo Retrace Level At Y113.82 Still Out Of Reach

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.24/34 Equality rise from Y111.99, Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y114.00 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y113.82 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*PRICE: Y113.46 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.24 Dec 11 low

*SUP 2: Y113.09/13 Dec 4 high, Dec 8 low

*SUP 3: Y112.80 Hourly high Dec 7, now support

*SUP 4: Y112.57 Hourly base Dec 7

*COMMENTARY* Unable as yet to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level

at Y113.82. Monday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.69. This also keeps us below

the upper 1% volatility band, which has risen by time today to Y114.00. This

Y113.82-Y114.00 region is the area to break, if the recovery is to continue and

challenge Y114.24-Y114.34 next. Meanwhile, support from between Y113.24-Y113.09

is the protection against a correction from the Dec 6 low at Y111.99.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Y132.88 The Immediate Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.50/70 Oct 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y134.38 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: Y134.05 Dec 4 high

*RES 1: Y133.88/89 76.4% of Y134.38-Y132.26, Dec 11 high

*PRICE: Y133.60 @1037GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.11/20 Dec 8 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.71 Hourly base Dec 7

*SUP 3: Y132.55 Hourly congestion area Dec 6

*SUP 4: Y132.26 Dec 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Having found support at Y132.26 last Wednesday, now moving back up

the Y134.50-Y131.17 range, that has been in existence for the last 3 months. The

76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y133.88 is the next potential barrier to gains,

Y134.05-Y134.38 higher. In the interim, support comes from Y133.20-Y133.11, loss

would trigger a deeper correction of that rise from Y132.26, with

Y132.71-Y132.55 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Continued Rally Still Dependent On Stg0.8850-54 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8891 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8868/80 Dec 5 high, hourly high Nov 28

*RES 1: Stg0.8850/54 Dec 7, Dec 6 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8835 @1048GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8790 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8773 Dec 11 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fate of a continued recovery is firmly in the hands of

Stg0.8850-Stg0.8854 resistance. Will need to cross back above here, if the

correction of losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to continue,

with Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 again expected to feature higher, en route to the upper

1% volatility band at Stg0.8891. Support rises to Stg0.8790-Stg0.8773. Loss of

the latter would caution.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2885-$1.2893 Still The Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% $1.3794-$1.2061, 1% vol

*RES 2: $1.2909 Nov 30 high

*RES 1: $1.2885/93 Hourly recovery highs Dec 1

*PRICE: $1.2831 @1052GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2820/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2805 Dec 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.2785 Hourly base Dec 6

*SUP 4: $1.2727 Dec 4 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Held last Tuesday, by support from the lower 1% volatility band at

$1.2624. The subsequent recovery was faltering for a while between $1.2705-10

resistance but found the impetus for a break higher on Wednesday. This rally has

surpassed all near term resistance including the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2842.

The $1.2885-$1.2893 area now the remaining barrier to further upside hopes.

Support $1.2825-1.2805, loss would concern.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Tests Base Of Congested Support Area

*RES 4: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1265.1 Underside broken 2017 bull channel

*RES 2: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1252.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1244.2 @1101GMT

*SUP 1: $1240.2 50% Fibo of $1122.6-$1357.7

*SUP 2: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*SUP 3: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3

*SUP 4: $1212.4 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1357.7

*COMMENTARY* Having lost key support from $1262.3 and $1260.7 earlier last week,

the pace of the fall quickened. This now sees congested support from between

$1242.5 and $1240.2, as the next potential target area and a brake against a

deeper $1232.6-$1230.9 decline. Resistance meanwhile, comes initially from

$1252.5, above which a succession of recent lows and the underside of the broken

2017 bull channel, now combine to form an umbrella of resistance above.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]