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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: A Hold Of $1.1763 Is Important To Further Recovery Hopes
*RES 4: $1.1915 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.1903 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717
*RES 2: $1.1863/68 Dec 14 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717
*RES 1: $1.1830/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1795 @1015GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1763/65 Initial recovery high Dec 13, Dec 14 low
*SUP 2: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low
*SUP 3: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940
*SUP 4: $1.1650/60 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961, 1% vol band
*COMMENTARY* Continued to find support from above $1.1713-$1.1709 this week and
the subsequent recovery through $1.1793-$1.1815 has allowed a correction of the
fall seen since the Nov 27 high at $1.1961. This has now reached towards the
61.8% Fibo retrace at $1.1868, before encountering some near term overbought
conditions. This sees $1.1763 as support, back below will disappoint now.
Resistance $1.1830-40, above $1.1868 and look to $1.1903 next.
CABLE TECHS: Recovery Reaches Pivotal $1.3460-$1.3470 Area
*RES 4: $1.3545/50 1% volatility band, Dec 1 high
*RES 3: $1.3521 Dec 8 high
*RES 2: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303
*RES 1: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December
*PRICE: $1.3416 @1020GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3395/00 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3375 Hourly base Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1.3340/45 Hourly congestion area Dec 13
*SUP 4: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 12 low
*COMMENTARY* Support from above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3298 remained
intact over the early part of the week. A low of $1.3303 on Tuesday, before
finding the ability to rally back above $1.3381-$1.3408 late on Wednesday. This
has subsequently seen a rise back into the pivotal $1.3460-$1.3470 area but
likely needing a further move through $1.3492 before being in a position to
revisit $1.3521-$1.3550. Nearest support meanwhile, rises to $1.3400-$1.3375.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Again Returns To Y111.99-Y111.95 Support
*RES 4: Y113.09/13 Hourly congestion Dec 13
*RES 3: Y112.89 Dec 14 high
*RES 2: Y112.70 Hourly resistance
*RES 1: Y112.46 Dec 13 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Y112.18 @1030GMT
*SUP 1: Y111.95/99 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 6 low
*SUP 2: Y111.72 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75
*SUP 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
Y113.82. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. The subsequent fall and
break below Y113.13-Y113.09, began a correction, which with the further loss of
Y112.46-Y112.38, has once again put the spotlight on Y111.99-Y111.95 support.
This currently protecting against a further Y111.72-Y111.53 fall. In the
interim, resistance from Y112.46-Y112.70 bars the way to any near term recovery.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Further Fall Has Next Support Between Y131.97-Y131.77
*RES 4: Y133.35 Hourly congestive highs Dec 12-14
*RES 3: Y133.13 Initial low Dec 14, now resistance
*RES 2: Y132.85 Dec 13 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.70 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y132.41 @1047GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.97/05 Hourly support, intraday low
*SUP 2: Y131.77 Equality fall from Y133.89 to Y134.38-Y132.26
*SUP 3: Y131.23/25 Nov 23 low, 1.618 swing Y132.26-Y133.89
*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low
*COMMENTARY* The failure to deal with pivotal Fibo resistance at Y133.88 this
week, has been the catalyst for the swift move back down the recent range. This
now sees Y131.97-Y131.77 as protecting against further losses towards
Y131.25-Y131.17. The latter the base of the Y134.50-Y131.17 range that has been
in effect since mid September this year. In the interim, resistance
Y132.70-Y132.85, above the latter needed to reduce current downside bias.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8850-54 Resistance Remains Key To Direction
*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance
*RES 3: Stg0.8880/83 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8868 Dec 5 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8850/54 Dec 7, Dec 6 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8799 @1055GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8745/50 Minor hourly congestion Dec 7-8
*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* The fate of a continued recovery is still in the hands of
Stg0.8850-54 resistance. Will need back above here, if the correction of losses
from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to continue, with
Stg0.8868-Stg0.8883 again expected to feature higher, ahead of Stg0.8915.
Support from Stg0.8773 has been lost, leaving Stg0.8761-Stg0.8725 as support
within recent range above Stg0.8687.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correction Continues, $1.2687-$1.2665 Key Support
*RES 4: $1.2850/55 Congestion area Dec 7-Dec 13
*RES 3: $1.2825/30 Series hourly lows Early Dec, now res'tce
*RES 2: $1.2816/17 Hourly low, recovery high Dec 14
*RES 1: $1.2785/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2751 @1106GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2714/27 Dec 14 low, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2893
*SUP 2: $1.2687 76.4% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2893
*SUP 3: $1.2665 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.2624 Dec 5 low
*COMMENTARY* Has found $1.2893 resistance too strong as yet, to mount another
challenge to the key $1.2917-$1.2927 area. As a result, we have seen a pullback,
which having lost support from the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2790 on
Thursday, has accelerated to $1.2714 so far, just below the 61.8% retrace at
$1.2727. This and the $1.2687-$1.2665 area present important near term support
now. In the interim, 1.2785-90 resists against a further $1.2816-$1.2855 rise.
GOLD TECHS: Heavily Oversold Conditions Assist In Near Term Recovery
*RES 4: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 3: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1265.1 Underside broken 2017 bull channel
*RES 1: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1257.9 @1110GMT
*SUP 1: $1245.4 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1
*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3
*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 on Tuesday, above the next targeted support area
from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily
oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3, now faces
resistance from $1260.7, ahead of a return towards the base of the broken 2017
bull channel at $1265.1. Will need back above the latter before any real upside
interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1245.4.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.