MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: A Hold Of $1.1763 Is Important To Further Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: $1.1915 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1903 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717

*RES 2: $1.1863/68 Dec 14 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717

*RES 1: $1.1830/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1795 @1015GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1763/65 Initial recovery high Dec 13, Dec 14 low

*SUP 2: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 3: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*SUP 4: $1.1650/60 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Continued to find support from above $1.1713-$1.1709 this week and

the subsequent recovery through $1.1793-$1.1815 has allowed a correction of the

fall seen since the Nov 27 high at $1.1961. This has now reached towards the

61.8% Fibo retrace at $1.1868, before encountering some near term overbought

conditions. This sees $1.1763 as support, back below will disappoint now.

Resistance $1.1830-40, above $1.1868 and look to $1.1903 next.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Crumbles After Pivotal $1.3460-70 Caps Rise

*RES 4: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303

*RES 3: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December

*RES 2: $1.3420/30 Hourly congestion Dec 14-15

*RES 1: $1.3380/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3330 @1440GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 12 low

*SUP 2: $1.3265 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550, 

*SUP 4: $1.3202 1.618 swing of $1.3303-$1.3467

*COMMENTARY* Support from above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3298 remained

intact over the early part of the week. A low of $1.3303 on Tuesday, before

finding the ability to rally back above $1.3381-$1.3408 late on Wednesday. This

has subsequently seen a rise back into the pivotal $1.3460-$1.3470 area but

unable to find the strength for a move through $1.3492. The subsequent loss of

$1.3395-$1.3375 leaves the downside and that $1.3303-$1.3298 vulnerable again.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Again Returns To Y111.99-Y111.95 Support

*RES 4: Y113.09/13 Hourly congestion Dec 13

*RES 3: Y112.89 Dec 14 high

*RES 2: Y112.70 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: Y112.46 Dec 13 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.18 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.95/99 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 6 low

*SUP 2: Y111.72 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*SUP 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

Y113.82. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. The subsequent fall and

break below Y113.13-Y113.09, began a correction, which with the further loss of

Y112.46-Y112.38, has once again put the spotlight on Y111.99-Y111.95 support.

This currently protecting against a further Y111.72-Y111.53 fall. In the

interim, resistance from Y112.46-Y112.70 bars the way to any near term recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Further Fall Has Next Support Between Y131.97-Y131.77

*RES 4: Y133.35 Hourly congestive highs Dec 12-14

*RES 3: Y133.13 Initial low Dec 14, now resistance

*RES 2: Y132.85 Dec 13 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.41 @1047GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.97/05 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y131.77 Equality fall from Y133.89 to Y134.38-Y132.26

*SUP 3: Y131.23/25 Nov 23 low, 1.618 swing Y132.26-Y133.89

*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*COMMENTARY* The failure to deal with pivotal Fibo resistance at Y133.88 this

week, has been the catalyst for the swift move back down the recent range. This

now sees Y131.97-Y131.77 as protecting against further losses towards

Y131.25-Y131.17. The latter the base of the Y134.50-Y131.17 range that has been

in effect since mid September this year. In the interim, resistance

Y132.70-Y132.85, above the latter needed to reduce current downside bias.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8850-54 Resistance Break Remains Key To Direction

*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761

*RES 2: Stg0.8880/85 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8868 Dec 5 high 

*PRICE: Stg0.8837 @1449GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8785/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fate of a continued recovery is still in the hands of

Stg0.8850-54 resistance. Will need a sustained move back above here, if the

correction of losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to continue,

with Stg0.8868-Stg0.8885 again expected to feature higher, ahead of

Stg0.8900-Stg0.8915. Support now from Stg0.8795-Stg0.8785, yesterday's Stg0.8761

low now important below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correction Continues, $1.2687-$1.2665 Key Support

*RES 4: $1.2850/55 Congestion area Dec 7-Dec 13

*RES 3: $1.2825/30 Series hourly lows Early Dec, now res'tce

*RES 2: $1.2816/17 Hourly low, recovery high Dec 14

*RES 1: $1.2785/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2751 @1106GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2714/27 Dec 14 low, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2893

*SUP 2: $1.2687 76.4% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2893

*SUP 3: $1.2665 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2624 Dec 5 low

*COMMENTARY* Has found $1.2893 resistance too strong as yet, to mount another

challenge to the key $1.2917-$1.2927 area. As a result, we have seen a pullback,

which having lost support from the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2790 on

Thursday, has accelerated to $1.2714 so far, just below the 61.8% retrace at

$1.2727. This and the $1.2687-$1.2665 area present important near term support

now. In the interim, 1.2785-90 resists against a further $1.2816-$1.2855 rise.

GOLD TECHS: Heavily Oversold Conditions Assist In Near Term Recovery

*RES 4: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 3: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1265.1 Underside broken 2017 bull channel

*RES 1: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1257.9 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: $1245.4 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 on Tuesday, above the next targeted support area

from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily

oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3, now faces

resistance from $1260.7, ahead of a return towards the base of the broken 2017

bull channel at $1265.1. Will need back above the latter before any real upside

interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1245.4.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]