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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Continued Recovery Requires $1.1813-$1.1845 Break
*RES 4: $1.1903 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717
*RES 3: $1.1863/68 Dec 14 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717
*RES 2: $1.1835/45 Hourly congestion area Dec 14
*RES 1: $1.1800/13 Hourly resistance, Dec 15 high
*PRICE: $1.1794 @0945GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1738 Dec 15 low
*SUP 2: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low
*SUP 3: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940
*SUP 4: $1.1650/65 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961, 1% vol band
*COMMENTARY* A deeper setback than anticipated on Friday, the loss of $1.1763
seeing a further dip to $1.1738 before encountering some oversold hourly
conditions. This still leaves the congested $1.1713-$1.1694 support area intact.
The subsequent recovery sees resistance from $1.1800-$1.1813 but likely
requiring a move back through $1.1835-45, before once again being in a position
to challenge the Dec 14 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.1863-68.
CABLE TECHS: Pullback Again Held Between $1.3303-$1.3298 Support
*RES 4: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303
*RES 3: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December
*RES 2: $1.3420/30 Hourly congestion Dec 14-15
*RES 1: $1.3380/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3355 @0953GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 12 low
*SUP 2: $1.3252 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550,
*SUP 4: $1.3202 1.618 swing of $1.3303-$1.3467
*COMMENTARY* The $1.3303-$1.3298 area once again came to the rescue on Friday.
The sharp decline from last week's $1.3467 high was arrested at $1.3302, before
finding some respite on the back of some near term oversold conditions. The
subsequent rally, now faces resistance from $1.3380-90 initially, $1.3420-30
currently of more consequence higher. Will ultimately need back through here to
renew upside potential and stave off further downside probing.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.99-Y111.95 Support Again Holds Off Pressure
*RES 4: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84
*RES 3: Y113.37 Dec 12 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y113.09/13 Hourly congestion Dec 13
*RES 1: Y112.84/89 Intraday, Dec 14 highs
*PRICE: Y112.64 @1004GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.20/25 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y111.95/99 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 6 low
*SUP 3: Y111.78 4 month support line, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75
*COMMENTARY* Unable to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
Y113.82 last week. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. The subsequent
fall and break below Y113.13-Y113.09, began a correction, which with the further
loss of Y112.46-Y112.38, once again put the spotlight on Y111.99-Y111.95
support. This currently protecting against a further Y111.78-Y111.53 fall. In
the interim, resistance from Y112.89-Y113.37 bars the way to a recovery.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.85 The Initial Bar To Further Recovery Prospects
*RES 4: Y133.76/89 Dec 14, Dec 11 highs
*RES 3: Y133.35 Hourly congestive highs Dec 12-14
*RES 2: Y133.13 Initial low Dec 14, now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.85/87 Dec 13 low, Intraday high
*PRICE: Y132.77 @1014GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.25 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y132.05 Dec 15 low
*SUP 3: Y131.77 Equality fall from Y133.89 to Y134.38-Y132.26
*SUP 4: Y131.23/25 Nov 23 low, 1.618 swing Y132.26-Y133.89
*COMMENTARY* The failure to deal with pivotal Fibo resistance at Y133.88 last
week, was the catalyst for the swift move back down the recent range. This now
sees Y132.05-Y131.77 as protecting against further losses towards
Y131.25-Y131.17. The latter the base of the Y134.50-Y131.17 range that has been
in effect since mid September this year. In the interim, a move back above
Y132.85 would help to reduce current downside bias.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8868-Stg0.8885 Presents Next Barrier To Recovery
*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance
*RES 3: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761
*RES 2: Stg0.8880/85 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Stg0.8868 Dec 5 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8829 @1022GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8785/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Found the strength for a move through Stg0.8850-54 on Friday but
for the time being the rally has stalled below the base of the next
Stg0.8868-Stg0.8885 resistance area. Will now need to see a move through here,
if the correction of losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to
continue, with Stg0.8900-Stg0.8915 then of interest higher. Support now from
Stg0.8795-Stg0.8785, last Thursday's Stg0.8761 low now important below.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Once Again Faces $1.2893-$1.2917 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.2958 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2927 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 2: $1.2909/17 Nov 30, Oct 27 highs
*RES 1: $1.2893/95 Dec 12, Dec 15 highs
*PRICE: $1.2878 @1036GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2843 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.2816 Initial recovery high Dec 14, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2786 Hourly high Dec 15, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2739 Dec 15 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.2714 last week. This and the $1.2687-$1.2665
area present important support now. In the interim, the subsequent rally on
Friday through firstly $1.2816 and then $1.2855, has once again brought us
toward $1.2893-$1.2917, which has capped rallies since late October. These and
the 50% Fibo retrace at $1.2927 are the bar to a higher $1.2958-$1.3004 rise.
Meanwhile, the day's $1.2843 low protects against any corrective action.
GOLD TECHS: $1260.7-$1267.8 The Near Term Bar To Further Gains
*RES 4: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 3: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1267.8 Underside broken 2017 bull channel
*RES 1: $1261.9 Dec 15 high
*PRICE: $1258.1 @1040GMT
*SUP 1: $1245.4 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1
*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3
*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 last Tuesday, above the next targeted support area
from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily
oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3, now faces
resistance from $1260.7-$1261.9, ahead of a return towards the base of the
broken 2017 bull channel at $1267.8. Will need back above here, before any real
upside interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1245.4.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.