MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Reaches Upper 2% Volatility Band, 'Doji' Candle

Close

*RES 4: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2571 Dec 15 2014 high

*RES 2: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.2495/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2423 @1028MT 

*SUP 1: $1.2385 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2364 Jan 25 low

*SUP 3: $1.2323 Jan 17 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2296 Jan 19 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band last Thursday, before

retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close

has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While

$1.2500-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is for lower. Support

$1.2385-$1.2364, loss of the latter will caution and open up deeper corrective

potential. Above $1.2538 will ease pressure, $1.2571-$1.2598 resistance above.

CABLE TECHS: Pulling Back After Faltering Ahead Of $1.4368 Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1.4287 Jan 26 high

*RES 3: $1.4240 Hourly congestion Jan 26

*RES 2: $1.4208 Hourly high Jan 26

*RES 1: $1.4167/72 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4110 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4083 Jan 25 low

*SUP 2: $1.4024/28 Equality fall from $1.4287, Jan 23 high

*SUP 3: $1.4007/17 38.2%$1.3458-$1.4346,76.4% $1.3916-$1.4346

*SUP 4: $1.3943 Jan 17 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* As suggested last Thursday, the overstepping of the the upper 2%

volatility band, at $1.4284 by time today, is never a long lasting scenario, so

always cautious when it happens. The subsequent fall from $1.4346-$1.4083 is

perhaps the first warning of some heavily overbought conditions. Meanwhile,

$1.4167-$1.4240 provides resistance, ahead of $1.4284-$1.4287. Above which is

needed to reignite real upside interest again.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Decent Support From Between Y108.27-Y108.22

*RES 4: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y109.77 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: Y109.42/48 Hourly highs Jan 25-26

*RES 1: Y109.06 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y108.68 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows

*SUP 2: Y107.89 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y107.72 1.618 swing of Y108.50-Y109.77

*SUP 4: Y107.44 1.618x Y114.74-Y110.84 from Y113.75

*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower on Friday, breaking below Y108.50 support, a low of

Y108.28 so far, before recovering swiftly, aided by some heavily oversold hourly

conditions. Looking at Y109.06 for initial resistance Y109.42-Y109.48 higher.

There is still decent support from between Y108.27-Y108.22 and this currently

protects against a further Y107.72-Y107.44 fall. Probably need a rally through

Y109.77 before any real upside belief will follow.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting Recent Y133.05-Y136.31 Gains 

*RES 4: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 3: Y136.31 Jan 18 high

*RES 2: Y135.90 Hourly congestion Jan 26

*RES 1: Y135.40/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y134.96 @1057GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.70/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.54 Jan 26 low

*SUP 3: Y134.20/30 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y133.05-Y136.31

*SUP 4: Y133.82 76.4% Fibo of Y133.05-Y136.31

*COMMENTARY* Has slipped below the recent range base at Y134.92, thereby

allowing some further correction of the most recent Y133.05-Y136.31 rise. In

this respect, a deeper Y134.30-Y133.82 fall cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile,

earlier support is noted from Y134.70-Y134.54. Rallies will require a move back

through Y135.40-Y135.50 initially but more importantly Y135.90 before upside

focus is regained.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8809 The Next Corrective Barrier To Surmount

*RES 4: Stg0.8873 76.4% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high, 61.8% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 1: Stg0.8809 Jan 9 low, 50% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*PRICE: Stg0.8802 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8745/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8724 Jan 26 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8711 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows

*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed on Thursday, a slightly

lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. This now allows some interim

Stg0.8755-Stg0.8711 support above. The sustained move back through

Stg0.8770-Stg0.8775 is encouraging and suggests some correction of losses from

the month's earlier Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 highs, with the Jan 9 low and 50% Fibo

retrace level at Stg0.8809 the next barrier to surmount.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2455 Congestion area Jan 22-23

*RES 3: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2360/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2342 @1112GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2278/82 1% volatility band, Jan 25 low

*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2154 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued last week, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355

behind, as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band, at

$1.2278 by time today. Lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2264 offers next

protection against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile, resistance is seen from

$1.2360-$1.2370 but needing to escape $1.2400 before any correction has room to

breathe.

GOLD TECHS: $1357.7 Break opens Way To $1367.3-$1380.3 Next

*RES 4: $1403.3 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 1: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*PRICE: $1346.8 @1115GMT

*SUP 1: $1342.5 Jan 25 low

*SUP 2: $1339.6 Jan 24 low

*SUP 3: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving too, $1342.5-$1339.6 now the nearest of note.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]