MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Continues Correction, Initially Of Gains From $1.2165

*RES 4: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1.2494 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: $1.2433 Jan 29 high

*RES 1: $1.2395/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2349 @0825GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2320/23 Equality fall from $1.2494, Jan 17 high

*SUP 2: $1.2307 61.8% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538

*SUP 3: $1.2284 1.618 swing of $1.2364-$1.2494

*SUP 4: $1.2253 76.4% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band last Thursday, before

retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close

has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While

$1.2494-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is for lower. Initial support now

from $1.2323-$1.2307 and then more importantly $1.2284-$1.2253. Interim

resistance $1.2395-$1.2433.

CABLE TECHS: Pullback Continues, $1.3957-$1.3943 Next Area Of Interest

*RES 4: $1.4172 Hourly recovery high Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4120/30 Hourly congestion Jan 26-29

*RES 2: $1.4083 Jan 25 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.4045/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4002 @0840GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3957 1.618 swing of $1.4083-$1.4287

*SUP 2: $1.3943 Jan 17 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3902/16 50% of $1.3458-$1.4346, Jan 23 low

*SUP 4: $1.3861 1.618x $1.4346-$1.4083 from $1.4287

*COMMENTARY* Continues to pullback following the brief break of the upper 2%

volatility band last week. Support from $1.4007 the latest to come under

pressure today, leaving $1.3957-$1.3943 as the next area of note. In the

interim, $1.4045-$1.4083 provides an initial barrier to any recovery, back above

the latter needed before thoughts can turn to some further  correction of losses

from last Thursday's $1.4346 peak.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Decent Support Still Seen From Between Y108.27-Y108.22

*RES 4: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y109.77 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: Y109.42/48 Hourly highs Jan 25-26

*RES 1: Y109.20/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y108.72 @0848GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows

*SUP 3: Y107.72 1.618 swing of Y108.50-Y109.77, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: Y107.32 Sep 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower last Friday, breaking below Y108.50 support, a low of

Y108.28 so far, before recovering, aided by some heavily oversold hourly

conditions. Now looking at Y109.20-Y109.25 for initial resistance

Y109.42-Y109.48 higher. There is still decent support from Y108.27-Y108.22 and

this currently protects against a further Y107.72-Y107.32 fall. Probably need a

rally through Y109.77 before any real upside belief will follow.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Key Near Term Support Noted Between Y133.82-Y133.80

*RES 4: Y135.80/85 Hourly congestion Jan 26

*RES 3: Y135.41/49 Hourly base Jan 25, hourly high Jan 26

*RES 2: Y135.00/02 Intraday high, hourly recovery Jan 29

*RES 1: Y134.80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y134.36 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.19 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y133.82 76.4% Fibo of Y133.05-Y136.31

*SUP 3: Y133.80 6 month rising support line

*SUP 4: Y133.05 Jan 10 low

*COMMENTARY* Has slipped below the recent range base at Y134.92, thereby

allowing some further correction of the most recent Y133.05-Y136.31 rise. In

this respect, a deeper Y134.19-Y133.80 fall cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile,

resistance is noted from Y134.80 and then beneath Y135.02 but rallies will

likely require a move back through Y135.41-Y135.49 before near term upside focus

is regained and a move back towards Y135.80-Y135.85.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Correction Continues Eyeing 61.8% Fibo Retrace At Stg0.8838

*RES 4: Stg0.8873 76.4% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8870 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high, 61.8% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*PRICE: Stg0.8828 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8780/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8767 Jan 29 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8740/45 Congestion area Jan 25-26

*SUP 4: Stg0.8724 Jan 26 low

*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed last Thursday, a slightly

lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. The recovery has gained momentum

this week, the latest rise now challenging towards the Jan 18 high and 61.8%

Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8838. As a consequence, support rises, the

Stg0.8790-Stg0.8767 area now anticipated to remain intact, if further gains back

up the recent range are to be contemplated.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Still Limited To Below $1.2400

*RES 4: $1.2455 Congestion area Jan 22-23

*RES 3: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2380 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2346 @0923GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2282/93 Jan 25, Jan 26 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2146 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued last week, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355

behind, a low of $1.2282 so far, as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1%

volatility band, which by time joins the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2264

today. These offer next protection against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile,

have seen a bounce to $ 1.2380 but likely needing to escape $1.2400 before any

correction has room to breathe.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 2: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 1: $1346.4 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1338.9 @0927GMT

*SUP 1: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 4: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower now, $1333.2-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]