MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hold Above $1.2335-$1.2323, Allows Some Correction 

*RES 4: $1.2523 Feb 1 high

*RES 3: $1.2475/82 Feb 5 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2523-$1.2351 

*RES 2: $1.2457 61.8% Fibo of $1.2523-$1.2351

*RES 1: $1.2437 50% Fibo of $1.2523-$1.2351

*PRICE: $1.2404 @0955GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2370 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2351/58 Intraday low, 1.618 swing $1.2409-$1.2491

*SUP 3: $1.2323/35 Jan 17 high, Jan 30 low

*SUP 4: $1.2307 61.8% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538

*COMMENTARY* Was unable to trade back through $1.2523-$1.2538, in order to shake

off the negative signals provided by the 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart

on Jan 25. Lost support from $1.2470 on Friday, $1.2384-85 also giving way

briefly today but fall caught around the swing target at $1.2358 and above the

next supports of note from $1.2335-$1.2323. Recovery now corrects losses from

$1.2523-$1.2538, needing back above $1.2482 for impact.

CABLE TECHS: Finds Some Support Between The $1.3943-$1.3924 Area

*RES 4: $1.4110/20 Congestion area Feb 2-Feb 5

*RES 3: $1.4082 Feb 2 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.4036 Hourly recovery high Feb 5

*RES 1: $1.4015 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3982 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3924/38 2 week bear channel base, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3902 50% Fibo of $1.3458-$1.4346

*SUP 3: $1.3843 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3795/97 1.618 swing $1.3980-$1.4279, 61.8% Fibo

*COMMENTARY* Have seen support from $1.3980 give way today, allowing a look at

$1.3938 so far, below the Jan 17 high at $1.3943 but just above the 2 week bear

channel base projection, at $1.3924 by time today. Oversold as a result in the

near term but requiring a move back above $1.4015-$1.4036, before any recovery

is likely to pick up any pace and allow a greater correction of losses from the

recent $1.4279-$1.4346 highs.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Sharp Fall After Failure Below Y110.49-Y110.57 Resistance

*RES 4: Y110.48/57 Feb 2 high, broken 5 month support line

*RES 3: Y110.00 Hourly congestion Feb 2-Feb 5

*RES 2: Y109.64 Initial low Feb 5, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.32 Hourly recovery high Feb 5

*PRICE: Y108.94 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.42 Jan 30 low

*SUP 2: Y108.28 Jan 26 low

*SUP 3: Y108.11 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y107.32 Sep 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Recovery came to a full stop at Y110.48 last Friday. just below the

Jan 19 low at Y110.49 and also the base of the previously broken 5 month support

line, at Y110.57. The subsequent fall has been swift, holding above Y108.42 for

the time being but reliant on the lower Y108.28-Y108.11 region holding in order

to prevent a deeper Y107.32-Y106.92 drop. Resistance falls to Y109.32, above

required for better Y109.64-Y110 rise.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Swift Fall After Rally Fails In Y137.40-Y137.65 Target Area

*RES 4: Y136.67/69 76.4% Fibo retrace, initial low Feb 5

*RES 3: Y136.29 Hourly low Feb 5, now resistance

*RES 2: Y136.16 61.8% Fibo of Y137.50-Y133.98

*RES 1: Y135.80 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y135.22 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.85/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.40 Intraday hourly base

*SUP 3: Y133.98/06 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y133.05 Jan 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery faltered last Friday at Y137.50, in the middle of the

next upside Y137.40-Y137.65 target area. The subsequent fall over the last two

days has been swift, losing Y134.90 support and the Jan 30 low at Y134.13 in the

process. Has been arrested so far at Y133.98, just below the 1% volatility band,

at Y134.06 today and the 76.4% Fibo retrace of the Y133.05-Y137.50 rise, at

Y134.10. Resistance Y135.80-Y136.29, more important from Y136.67-Y136.69.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Further Rise Relies On Stg0.8850 Support Holding

*RES 4: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8930 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8900 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687

*RES 1: Stg0.8893 3 month falling resistance line

*PRICE: Stg0.8885 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8850 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8825 Hourly congestion area Feb 2-Feb 5

*SUP 3: Stg0.8813 Feb 5 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8780 Feb 1 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last week's dip to Stg0.8716 is now more than

100% complete with the rally back through Stg0.8837. Has subsequently moved

through the higher Stg0.8873 level today, a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the most

recent fall from Stg0.8930. This now leaves the Stg0.8893-Stg0.8900 region as

the next potential bar to a Stg0.8930 return. Support comes from Stg0.8850, loss

would caution and suggest some overbought conditions are in need of repair.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Caution As Decline Oversteps 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $0.7985/87 50% of $0.8136-$0.7835, Feb 1 low

*RES 3: $0.7950/54 38.2% of $0.8136-$0.7835, Feb 5 high

*RES 2: $0.7925 Hourly congestion Feb 2-Feb 5

*RES 1: $0.7895/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7873 @1105GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7835 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7819 50% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*SUP 3: $0.7808 Jan 9-Jan 10 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7744 61.8% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136

*COMMENTARY* The decline has gathered pace and exuberance over the last 48

hours. A low of $0.7835 today, slightly below the lower 2% volatility band at

$0.7854 by time today. As always, cautious when this occurs as it is never a

long lasting event. Has bounced subsequently but requires a move back above

$0.7895-$0.7925 before confidence in any recovery will appear, $0.7950-$0.7954

then the next stepping stone higher. Below $0.7835 and $0.7819-$0.7808 next.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2500-$1.2480 Provides Near Term Support

*RES 4: $1.2762 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 3: $1.2664 61.8% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 2: $1.2624/25 Dec 5 low, 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2585/91 50% of $1.2921-$1.2249, Jan 11 high

*PRICE: $1.2527 @1115GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2480/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2451 Feb 2 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2398 Feb 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2367 Hourly base Feb 2

*COMMENTARY* The recovery continues apace this week, the latest rise to $1.2565,

just shy of the next resistance area between $1.2585, a 50% retrace level and

the Jan 11 high at $1.2591. Some near term overbought conditions are currently

being unwound, $1.2500-$1.2480 anticipated to stay intact, is a deeper

correction of gains from last week's $1.2249 base, is to be averted. Above

$1.2591 and $1.2624-$1.2625 is likely to provide the next barrier.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 3: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: $1351.1 Feb 1 high

*RES 1: $1345.5/46.2 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1342.4 @1120GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1327.5/27.9 Feb 2 low, Jan 10 high 

*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 4: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower, $1327.9-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]