MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2360-$1.2369 Still In The Way Of Continued Recovery

*RES 4: $1.2486/93 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2260, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.2435 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1.2413/16 Hourly recovery highs Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2360/69 Feb 21 high, Feb 19 low

*PRICE: $1.2326 @0819GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2280/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2260 Feb 22 low

*SUP 3: $1.2246 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2206 Feb 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Broke below $1.2289-$1.2276 last Thursday, a low of $1.2260, ahead

of the next downside markers, the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2246 and the

Feb 9 low at $1.2206. Some near term oversold conditions can see a rise but

likely needs to sustain a move back above $1.2360-$1.2369, before any real

upside confidence will appear, for some correction of losses from $1.2556. Below

$1.2206 and attention will switch to the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2173.

CABLE TECHS: $1.4050-$1.4077 The Next Test To This Rise

*RES 4: $1.4128 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.4100 One month falling resistance line

*RES 2: $1.4077 76.4% Fibo of $1.4145-$1.3924

*RES 1: $1.4050/56 Feb 19 high, equality rise from $1.3924

*PRICE: $1.4038 @0830GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3980/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3960 Hourly base Feb 23

*SUP 3: $1.3924 Initial low Feb 23

*SUP 4: $1.3905 Feb 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues it's recovery from a test to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level

at $1.3855 last Thursday. Had to endure a sharp $1.3905 pullback on Friday but

has since clambered higher, now heading towards the next resistance area of note

between $1.4050-$1.4077. This will be the next test to the power of this rise

and whether we are ready to take on higher $1.4100-$1.4145 resistance. Support

meanwhile, from $1.3980-$1.3960, loss would weaken immediate upside argument.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Falters Beneath Key Y108.05-Y108.28 Resistance

*RES 4: Y107.91/05 Feb 21 high, Feb 9 low

*RES 3: Y107.61 Hourly recovery high Feb 22

*RES 2: Y107.21/34 Feb 23 high, congestion area Feb 21-22

*RES 1: Y107.00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y106.63 @0840GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.35/45 Hourly lows/highs Feb 16-19

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Feb 19 low

*SUP 3: Y105.82/92 1% volatility band, hourly base Feb 16

*SUP 4: Y105.55 Feb 16 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery came to a halt at Y107.91 last week, leaving us shy of

a test to the key Y108.05-Y108.28 region. As well as these two previous lows,

there is also the upper 1% volatility band at Y107.96 and the 2018 falling

resistance line at Y108.03, to contend with. Will therefore need to conquer this

area, before any real upside impetus will be found. Meanwhile, Y106.35 is

initial support but Y106.10-Y105.82 a better gauge to direction below.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Key Support Situated Between Y130.89-Y130.26 Today

*RES 4: Y132.78 Hourly recovery high Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.35/40 Hourly congestion Feb 21-22

*RES 2: Y132.06 Hourly recovery high Feb 22

*RES 1: Y131.81 Feb 16 low, Feb 23 high

*PRICE: Y131.32 @0850GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.89/94 1% volatility band, Feb 23 low

*SUP 2: Y130.51 1.618 swing of Y131.61-Y133.39

*SUP 3: Y130.26 1.618 swing of Y133.05-Y137.51

*SUP 4: Y129.56 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Sank again on Friday, moving below the key Y131.17-Y131.04 support

area. Now looking toward the lower 1% volatility band at Y130.89 today, as the

last protection against a deeper Y130.51-Y130.26 fall, this ahead of perhaps

Y129.56, where the lower 2% volatility band lies today. This would also open up

the prospect of beginning a correction of the Y114.85-Y137.51 gains seen since

April last year. Meanwhile, a Y131.81-Y132.06 break would allow a breather.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8876-Stg0.8769 Support Back Under Pressure 

*RES 4: Stg0.8890 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8830/38 Congestion Feb 21-22, hourly high Feb 23 

*RES 1: Stg0.8805/06 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8785 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8776/79 76.4% of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920, Feb 9 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8769 1.618 swing of Stg0.8805-Stg0.8864

*SUP 3: Stg0.8753 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8732/42 Feb 8 low, 76.4% of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8920

*COMMENTARY* Continued to lose ground last week, following the failure to deal

with range top resistance at Stg0.8926 earlier in the month. The first of two

dual Fibo support levels at Stg0.8805 gave way on Friday, leaving the second

dual support from Stg0.8776 to protect ahead of the swing target and 1%

volatility band between Stg0.8769-Stg0.8753. Meanwhile, Stg0.8805-06 becomes

resistance, above would allow some near term respite.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7893 Resistance After Hold Above 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $0.7958 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7936/42 Feb 19 high, 76.4% of $0.7989-$0.7790

*RES 2: $0.7915 Congestion area Feb 16-20

*RES 1: $0.7893 Feb 16 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7876 @1005GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7846 Feb 23 high, now support

*SUP 2: $0.7829 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $0.7800/04 1% volatility band, Feb 23 low

*SUP 4: $0.7790 Feb 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Suffered another challenge to the lower 1% volatility band last

Thursday, $0.7790 at the time. This the top end of what looks a congested band

of support from above the Feb 9 low at $0.7759 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at $0.7744. Meanwhile, some oversold hourly conditions have produced a rally.

Resistance from the Feb 16 low at $0.7893 now the bar to a higher

$0.7915-$0.7942 rise. Support $0.7846 and then the day's $0.7829 low.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Declines After 76.4% Fibo Retrace Caps Rise

*RES 4: $1.2758/62 Feb 21 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249

*RES 3: $1.2726/28 Feb 23 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2705 Hourly congestion Feb 22-23

*RES 1: $1.2672 Feb 22 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2626 @1018GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2604 50% Fibo of $1.2450-$1.2758

*SUP 2: $1.2557/68 Feb 16 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2450-$1.2758

*SUP 3: $1.2523/28 76.4% Fibo of $1.2450-$1.2758, Feb 19 low 

*SUP 4: $1.2476 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The rally was stopped in its tracks at $1.2758 last Wednesday, just

ahead of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2762. The subsequent fall now

correcting the most recent rise from $1.2450, with the 50% Fibo retrace level at

$1.2604  the protection against a further $1.2568-$1.2523 fall.  As a result,

resistance slips to $1.2672 initially, $1.2705-$1.2728 above. Below $1.2523 and

the lower 1% volatility band is at $1.2476 today.

GOLD TECHS: Finds Support From Above 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level At $1320.0

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1346.6 Feb 20 high

*RES 1: $1343.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1339.4 @1023GMT

*SUP 1: $1325.9 Feb 23 low

*SUP 2: $1320.0 76.4% Fibo of $1307.1-$1361.8

*SUP 3: $1318.1 Feb 14 low

*SUP 4: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to find the ability to retest the year's $1366.2 high and

has been gradually suffering since. The latest fall back beneath $1344.9 allows

some further correction of recent gains from this month's $1307.1 base. In this

respect the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.0 and the Feb 14 low at $1318.1

now offer a potential reprieve. In the interim, resistance moves to

$1343.5-$1346.6 but back above $1351.6 needed to revive upside interest. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]