MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2365 Still The Bar To Further Progress

*RES 4: $1.2433 Underside broken bull channel base

*RES 3: $1.2413/24 1% vol band, swing of $1.2365-$1.2269

*RES 2: $1.2403 61.8% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.2155

*RES 1: $1.2365 Mar 2 high

*PRICE: $1.2342 @0855GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2290 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2252/69 Mar 2, Mar 5 lows

*SUP 3: $1.2205 Hourly congestion Feb 28-Mar 1

*SUP 4: $1.2155/65 Mar 1 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Found support last week from a combination of the lower 1%

volatility band and a 38.2% Fibo retrace level. The subsequent recovery now

tries to renegotiate resistance from $1.2365. Back through here would allow a

move up to the next area of note, at $1.2403, a 61.8% Fibo level and the swing

target of the most recent $1.2365-$1.2269 fall, at $1.2424. In the interim,

$1.2290 and then $1.2269-$1.2252 now provide support.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3890 Now The Next Resistance To Consider

*RES 4: $1.4008 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3984/97 5 week falling res line, Feb 27 high

*RES 2: $1.3928 Feb 26 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3877/90 Mar 5 high, hourly lows Feb 28

*PRICE: $1.3830 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3815 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3790/95 Hourly congestion Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 3: $1.3756 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $1.3712 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered near term since last Thursday's dip to $1.3712.

Monday saw further progress through recent 1.3817 highs and the Feb 22 low at

$1.3857, to reach $1.3877. This now leaves $1.3890 as the bar to the Feb 26 low

at $1.3928. Through the latter needed however, before the rally can increase in

potential toward $1.3984-$1.3997. As a result, support also on the move,

$1.3815-$1.3790, now the protection to the more important Mar 2 low at $1.3756.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.46-Y106.55 The Next Obstacle To Recovery

*RES 4: Y107.20/28 Mar 1 high, 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25

*RES 3: Y107.11 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: Y106.74 76.4% Fibo of Y107.20-Y105.25

*RES 1: Y106.46/55 61.8% Y107.20-Y105.25, initial low Mar 1

*PRICE: Y106.03 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.70/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.50 Congestion area Mar 2-Mar 5, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Y105.25 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: Y104.53 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Had continued to lose ground since last Monday's Y107.68 high. The

subsequent loss of the previous Y105.55 low reached Y105.25 last Friday, before

finding some near term respite from some oversold hourly conditions. With the

move above Y106.00, now has Y106.46-Y106.55 in the way of further gains and

better recovery of some of those losses. As a consequence, support rises to

Y105.75-Y105.50, loss of the latter would swing bias lower again.

EURO-YEN TECHS: New Low But Higher Close Creates Bullish 'Outside' Day

*RES 4: Y132.47 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y129.35, 1% vol band

*RES 3: Y132.19 Feb 27 high

*RES 2: Y131.52/55 76.4% Fibo of Y132.19-Y129.35, i'day high

*RES 1: Y131.25/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.77 @0942GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.45 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.19 Initial recovery high Mar 5, now support

*SUP 3: Y129.65/70 Hourly congestion area Mar 2

*SUP 4: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* A fresh fall Monday saw a low of Y129.35, before finding some

support on the back of some near term oversold conditions. With the close above

Friday's Y130.53 high, this has created a potentially bullish 'outside' day on

the daily chart. Now needing to clear Y131.52-Y131.55 to carry this recovery on

and some greater correction of this year's losses from Y137.51. Support

Y130.45-Y130.19, back below Y129.65 would caution.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Stg0.8951 Caps, Watching Stg0.8883-85

*RES 4: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 3: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8951 Mar 2 high, 76.4% of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687

*RES 1: Stg0.8937 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Stg0.8909 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8883/85 Hourly base Mar 1, Mar 5 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8837 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8815 Initial rally high Feb 26, now support

*COMMENTARY* Have recently seen a move through the range top at Stg0.8920-26. So

far, this has been halted at Stg0.8951, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level of the

Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687 fall seen since the beginning of October last year. Will

need to maintain a break through here, before the potential for a higher

Stg0.8981-Stg0.9013 rise will occur. In the meantime, Stg0.8905 support has been

lost and suggests scope for some deeper correction of recent gains.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 76.4% Fibo At $0.7794 Stands In Way Of Better Recovery

*RES 4: $0.7871 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7851 76.4% Fibo of $0.7893-$0.7713

*RES 2: $0.7819/24 Feb 28 high, 61.8% of $0.7893-$0.7713

*RES 1: $0.7794 76.4% Fibo of $0.7819-$0.7713

*PRICE: $0.7758 @0952GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7726 Mar 5 low

*SUP 2: $0.7713 Mar 1 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7695 Dec 15 high, now support

*SUP 4: $0.7637/52 2% vol band, 76.4% of $0.7502-$0.8136

*COMMENTARY* Break below the previous $0.7759 low last week has resulted in a

base at $0.7713 so far, before picking up aided by some near term oversold

conditions. This keeps us above the lower 1% volatility band also at $0.7713

today, for the time being but will need the added emphasis of a 0.7794 break,

before any further confidence in the upside will follow. Below $0.7713 and the

Dec 15 high at $0.7695 protects against a deeper $0.7652-$0.7637 fall.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Nudges Above $1.3000 As Rally Continues

*RES 4: $1.3109 Equality rise from $1.2249 to $1.2061-$1.2921

*RES 3: $1.3085 6 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.3060 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3002 Mar 5 high

*PRICE: $1.2984 @1008GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2916 Mar 2 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2869 Hourly base Mar 2

*SUP 3: $1.2809 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1.2758 Feb 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Blasted through the previous $1.2921 high and also the near term

equality rise target at $1.2948 on Monday. A high of $1.3002 at the time of

writing but there is currently not much resistance of note until the upper 2%

volatility band at the higher $1.3060 level and the 6 month channel top at

$1.3085. Support also rises, $1.2916 initially, protecting against a deeper

$1.2869 fall, which should hold, if the rally is to continue at this juncture.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 1: $1332.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1324.7 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: $1317.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low 

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 last Thursday, just ahead of the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. The

subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially bullish

'Doji' candle close on the daily chart last Thursday. Next resistance comes from

$1332.1, through here will allow a better $1341.1-$1351.6 rise. Above the latter

then needed to reinvigorate the upside. Nearest support $1317.5-$1307.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]