MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Falters On Initial Foray To $1.2410 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2526 Underside broken 4 month bull channel base

*RES 3: $1.2461/81 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2155, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $1.2446 Mar 7, Mar 8 highs

*RES 1: $1.2410/13 Congestion area Mar 7-Mar 8, Mar 14 high

*PRICE: $1.2368 @0850GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2334/46 Mar 9, Mar 12 highs, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2305/14 Congestion Mar 8-12, Mar 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.2291 Mar 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.2266/69 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The combination of the upper 1% volatility band and the base of the

previously broken 4 month bull channel, proved a bridge too far last week. A

dual $1.2446 high before succumbing to downside pressure, heightened by the loss

of $1.2365 support. A low of $1.2273 seen, just ahead of the 61.8% retrace level

at $1.2266, this of recent gains from $1.2155. Meanwhile, with Tuesday's move

back above $1.2345 the focus now switches to $1.2410-$1.2413 for next clues.

CABLE TECHS: Rallies Still Troubled By $1.3997-$1.4000 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 3: $1.4070 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1.4021/29 1.618 swing $1.3930-$1.3782, 50% Fibo 

*RES 1: $1.3997/00 Feb 27 high, equality rise from $1.3782

*PRICE: $1.3956 @0901GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3905/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3875 Mar 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.3841 Mar 12 low, hourly base Mar 9

*SUP 4: $1.3817 Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* After a couple of days is still unable as yet to deal with

$1.3997-$1.4000 resistance. A break above the latter is the key to a further

$1.4021-$1.4029 rise, where the upper 1% volatility band also resides today.

While it continues to cap, focus will eventually switch to $1.3920-$1.3905

support. Back below the latter will caution, bringing recent upside momentum

into question and suggest scope for a  deeper correction of gains from $1.3782.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Sharp Pullback Approaches Key Near Term Support

*RES 4: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Y107.05 Mar 9 high

*RES 2: Y106.75 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: Y106.38 Hourly low/high Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.03 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.70/75 Hourly lows/highs Mar 2-Mar 7

*SUP 2: Y105.46 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: Y105.13/25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: Y104.00/09 15 month bear channel, swing target

*COMMENTARY* Still paying the price for faltering at Y107.28-Y107.30 resistance,

an area which also includes the upper 1% volatility band today. The subsequent

fall has reached toward the key near term support from between Y105.75-Y105.70.

Really need to stay above here if any recent upside momentum is to be retained

and avoid pressure returning on Y105.25-Y105.13. Resistance Y106.38-Y106.75 but

back above Y107.05 is likely needed to see upside confidence return.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.97-Y130.92 Support Becomes Key To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.95 1.618 swing of Y132.02-Y130.52

*RES 2: Y132.44/53 Mar 13 high, 38.2% Y137.51-Y129.35, 1% vol

*RES 1: Y131.75/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y131.13 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.92/97 Hourly base Mar 6, Mar 12 low

*SUP 2: Y130.52 Mar 8 low

*SUP 3: Y130.05/10 Hourly congestion Mar 1-Mar 5

*SUP 4: Y129.91 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise,

before meeting resistance. The subsequent lower close then saw the appearance of

a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle at Tuesday's close. Tuesday's move back

above Y132.02 seeingly negates this but has been capped by the 38.2% Fibo

retrace level and upper 1% volatility band between Y132.47-Y132.53. Support from

Y131.70-Y131.25 has since been lost, putting near term onus on Y130.97-Y130.92.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Near Term Support Exists From Between Stg0.8844-Stg0.8837

*RES 4: Stg0.8981/88 Nov 28 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8925/40 Hourly highs Mar 8, Mar 5

*RES 1: Stg0.8895/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8856 @0924GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8837/44 Mar 1 low, Feb 27 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8815/20 Hourly congestion Feb 26-Feb 27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8804 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8771 Feb 26 low

*COMMENTARY* It seems that we were not quite ready for a challenge to the top of

the congested trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, let alone a

break out. The failure below Stg0.8981 last week, has seen a return into the

recent range. Near term support from Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870 has been lost and opens

the way for a deeper Stg0.8844-Stg0.8815 fall. Meanwhile, Stg0.8895-Stg0.8900

currently bars the way higher again.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Retreats After Rally Extends Towards Next $0.7924 Target

*RES 4: $0.7989 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $0.7974/78 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713, 2% vol band

*RES 2: $0.7924 76.4% $0.7989-$0.7713, 50% $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 1: $0.7905 1% volatility band, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7867 @0929GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7843/46 Mar 6 high, Mar 13 low

*SUP 2: $0.7795 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 9

*SUP 3: $0.7772/73 Mar 7-Mar 8 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7750/55 Congestion area Mar 1-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up again. This kept us above the lower 1% volatility

band and with the added emphasis of a 0.7794 break, have subsequently seen a

rise, which with Wednesday's move through $0.7898, has seen the rally stretch

toward the next resistance of note at $0.7924. Support comes initially from

above $0.7846-$0.7843, loss would concern in the near term.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Still Awaiting Fresh $1.3000 Challenge

*RES 4: $1.3098 6 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3043 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3001/02 Mar 6, Mar 5 highs

*RES 1: $1.2985 Mar 13 high

*PRICE: $1.2946 @0938GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2910/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2877 Initial rally high Mar 13, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2845 Hourly congestion highs Mar 12-13

*SUP 4: $1.2803/09 Mar 12 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*COMMENTARY* Had two attempts earlier in the month to move through $1.3000

without success. The subsequent pullback broke below support from the 38.2% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2854, this of the gains seen since the Feb 26 low at $1.2615

but was held at the top of the next deeper correction area between

$1.2809-$1.2763. Meanwhile, the move back above $1.2909-$1.2961 encourages for

another go at $1.3000 and perhaps $1.3030-$1.3096. Support $1.2915-$1.2877.

GOLD TECHS: $1334.1-$1341.1 The Bar To Further Upside Progress

*RES 4: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 3: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 1: $1330.1 Mar 14 high

*PRICE: $1322.8 @0941GMT

*SUP 1: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to find support from above $1311.2 over the course of

the last week, keeping the key near term support from the 50% Fibo retrace level

at $1301.4 intact for the time being. The recovery is still being aided by the

appearance of a potentially bullish 'Doji' candle close on Mar 1. To capitalise

on this, will need to navigate a way through $1334.1-$1341.1 resistance, before

any real upside impetus will be found.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]