MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/nglkxvd

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Target $1.2092-1.2153

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2438 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $1.2414 High Mar 14

*RES 1: $1.2348 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*PRICE: $1.2326 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2277 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2211 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to challenge the key $1.2446 resistance with the break

back below $1.2340 returning focus to the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 55-DMA to target the key $1.2092-1.2153 support region. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above

$1.2348 to gain breathing room and above $1.2446 to target $1.2555-1.2639.

CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3840 Initially Targets $1.3710

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1.3997 High Feb 27

*PRICE: $1.3969 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3908 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3881 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3840 Low Mar 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3781 Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of $1.3940 sees

pressure back on the 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears now look for a close below $1.3840 to

confirm a break of these DMAs and initially target $1.3710 with overall focus

shifting to $1.3585-1.3626 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls now need a close

above $1.3997 to reconfirm focus on $1.4150. Narrowing Bollinger bands increase

the risk of a break out.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.29 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y107.51 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.40 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y105.75 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08  2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y105.79 leaves the pair looking heavy with bears now

focused on the break of 2018 lows needed to add weight to the case for a test of

the Y98.95-101.15 support region. Layers of resistance building add to bearish

confidence. Bulls need a close above Y106.75 to gain breathing room and above

Y107.29 to shift initial focus to Y108.03-92 where the 55-DMA is located. While

Y106.75 caps immediate focus remains on 2018 lows.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y131.29

*RES 4: Y131.93 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*RES 3: Y131.70 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.29 Hourly resistance Mar 15a

*RES 1: Y131.03 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*PRICE: Y130.38 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.98 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.90 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having broken Y130.49 with immediate on

Y129.33-53 where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Nulls now need a close

above Y131.29 to signal a false break and return focus to layers of resistance

Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. The Bollinger base (Y129.98) is

the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow through as daily

studies are well placed for losses.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8845-0.8904 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8892 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8874 High Mar 15 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8845 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8820 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: The pair is gaining traction below the 55-DMA and remains heavy on

the break of the daily bull channel base off 2018 lows. Immediate focus is now

on the Gbp0.8769 level with a close below needed to target retests of 2018 lows.

The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above

the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the

200-DMA, retuning initial focus to 2018 highs and overall focus to Gbp0.9013-48.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3001

*RES 4: $1.3389 - Monthly Low May 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3265 - High June 26 

*RES 2: $1.3172 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $1.3131 - Low June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3058 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3001 - High Mar 7 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2922 - Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: $1.2846 - High Mar 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2822 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rally from 2018 lows continues to result in fresh 9mth highs

with immediate bullish focus on $1.3131-72 where the daily bull channel top is

located. The Bollinger band top ($1.3125) is the key concern for bulls. Initial

support is noted at $1.3001 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish

pressure and below $1.2922 to shift focus to $1.2749-1.2846 where the bull

channel base and 21-DMA are noted.

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 3: $0.7906 - Falling TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7889 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7827 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7792 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7770 - Hourly support Mar 16 

*SUP 2: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 100-DMA ($0.7775) has so far lacked follow through

with bears now looking for a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to the case

for a test of $0.7694-0.7710 where 2018 lows are situated. Daily studies are

well placed for a fresh leg lower with below $0.7694 to target $0.7500 Dec lows.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7842 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus

back to $0.7906-35 and above $0.7935 to hint at a move back to $0.8135-62.

GOLD TECHS: $1312.9 & $1330.0 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: $1321.5 - Low Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1320.0 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1304.3 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1289.6 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 21-DMA ($1325.9) bulls failed to gain

traction above with pressure returning to $1312.9. Bears look for a close below

$1312.9 to return focus to $1289.6-1304.3 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and gain

breathing room whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus

on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]