MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Finding Some Support On Back Of Near Term Oversold

Conditions

*RES 4: $1.2446 Mar 7, Mar 8 highs

*RES 3: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 2: $1.2375/85 Mar 14 congestion, Mar 15 high

*RES 1: $1.2336 Mar 16 high

*PRICE: $1.2324 @1620GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2275/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2258/66 Intraday low, 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 3: $1.2218/24 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 4: $1.2186 1.618 swing of $1.2273-$1.2413

*COMMENTARY* The failure to cope with $1.2410-$1.2413 resistance last week, the

catalyst behind the recent fall, which has slightly surpassed the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2266. A low of $1.2258 but has become oversold in the near

term. With the move back above $1.2305-$1.2315 now looking to last Friday's

$1.2336 high for next clues. Will need back through here to reduce downside

momentum. Meanwhile, $1.2285-$1.2275 supports.

CABLE TECHS: $1.4104 The Next Upside Resistance After $1.4070 Break

*RES 4: $1.4204 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.4196 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 2: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 1: $1.4089 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.4030 @1622GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4015/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3996 Mar 14 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3950 Initial rally high Mar 16, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3913 Intraday low

*COMMENTARY* Finally got the break above $1.3997-$1.4000.  This has been

followed by a further move through the next bands of resistance from between

$1.4029-$1.4070. A high of $1.4089 so far, as we head for the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.4104. Today's rise is nearing near term overbought levels, so

support comes initially from $1.4020-$1.4015 and then last Wednesday's $1.3996

igh. Ideally pullbacks are held above here, if rally to continue.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.24-Y106.42 The Bar To Any Near Term Recovery Potential

*RES 4: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Y106.97/05 Recovery high and Mar 9 high

*RES 2: Y106.42 Mar 15 high

*RES 1: Y106.24/31 Hourly recovery high Mar 16, i'day high

*PRICE: Y105.91 @1624GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.60 Mar 16 low

*SUP 2: Y105.46 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: Y105.16/25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: Y103.90/09 15 month bear channel, swing target

*COMMENTARY* Paying the price for faltering at Y107.28-Y107.30 resistance last

week, an area which also included the upper 1% volatility band. The subsequent

fall has reached slightly below the key near term support from Y105.70. Really

needed to stay above here, if any recent upside momentum is to be retained and

avoid pressure returning on Y105.25-Y105.16. Resistance Y106.24-Y106.42, back

above the latter would help with near term recovery efforts.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Mar 14 Low At Y131.02 Now The Bar To Continued Rise

*RES 4: Y132.44/48 Mar 13 high, 38.2% Fibo, 1% vol band

*RES 3: Y131.77 76.4% Fibo of Y132.44-Y129.61

*RES 2: Y131.35 Congestion area early March

*RES 1: Y131.02 Mar 14 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.53 @1625GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.95/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.61/70 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*SUP 4: Y128.85 38.2% Fibo of Y114.85-Y137.51

*COMMENTARY* Failure last Tuesday to move through the 38.2% Fibo retrace level

at Y132.47, coupled with the upper 1% volatility band, heaped problems back on

the downside. The fall below Y130.05 has been held at Y129.61 so far today, just

below the lower 1% volatility band and above the key Mar 5 low at Y129.35. Some

respite has followed, with the move back through Y130.25-Y130.52, the Mar 14 low

at Y131.02 now the next barrier to surmount.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Decline Continues After Break Below Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771 

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Mar 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8790/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8785 @1626GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8732 Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Feb 1 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8687 Jan 25 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8685 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months has continued with a

vengeance today. The loss of Stg0.8815 has been followed by a further move below

Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771. This now leaves the Feb 8 low at Stg0.8732 and the Feb 1

low at Stg0.8717 protecting the range base at Stg0.8687. In the meantime,

resistance from Stg0.8790-Stg0.8800 keeps a lid on near term recovery potential.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Sharp Decline Continues, $0.7655-$0.7652 Key Support

*RES 4: $0.7833 Hourly recovery high Mar 15

*RES 3: $0.7804 Mar 16 high

*RES 2: $0.7771 Initial base Mar 16, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7735/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7703 @1627GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7687 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7655 6 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $0.7652 76.4% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: $0.7628 Dec 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to lose ground rapidly, this has been exacerbated by

the loss of $0.7772-$0.7760 support. Also below the lower 1% volatility band, at

$0.7730 by time today. A low of $0.7687 at the time of writing, this protecting

what currently looks a decent area of support from between the 6 week bear

channel base at $0.7655 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652. Resistance

from $0.7735-$0.7740, above needed for near term respite.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Reaches $1.3125 Swing Target

*RES 4: $1.3217 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3165 Jun 14 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3132 61.8% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.3125 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2803, i'day high

*PRICE: $1.3091 @1628GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3048 Mar 16 low

*SUP 2: $1.3001/02 Mar 7, Mar 5 highs, now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2965 Congestion area Mar 14-Mar 15

*SUP 4: $1.2921 Mar 14 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally through $1.3000 has  continued, today reaching $1.3125,

the swing target of the recent $1.3002-$1.2803 fall. This leaves us just shy of

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.3132. As a result, has become extremely

overbought in the near term, so looking to $1.3048 support for clues. Loss here

will likely kick start a correction, potentially of those gains from $1.2803.

Above $1.3132 and minor $1.3165 ahead of 2% volatility band.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Protects Against $1302.8-$1301.4 Fall

*RES 4: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 3: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 2: $1330.1 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: $1321.9 Mar 16 high

*PRICE: $1317.9 @1630GMT

*SUP 1: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Unable to find a way above $1334.1 resistance over the course of

the month and is paying the price as a result. The loss of $1311.2 support now

sees the Feb 8 low at $1307.1 as the remaining protection against a return to

the $1302.8-$1301.4 support area. The latter a 50% Fibo retrace level and guard

against a deeper $1286.1 decline. Meanwhile, $1321.9-$1330.1 provides resistance

against another attempt to reach that elusive $1334.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]