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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2375-$1.2385 Provides Next Test To Recovery
*RES 4: $1.2446 Mar 7, Mar 8 highs
*RES 3: $1.2413 Mar 14 high
*RES 2: $1.2375/85 Mar 14 congestion, Mar 15 high
*RES 1: $1.2359 Mar 19 high
*PRICE: $1.2338 @0840GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2280/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2258/66 Mar 19 low, 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446
*SUP 3: $1.2224 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.2155-$1.2446
*SUP 4: $1.2186 1.618 swing of $1.2273-$1.2413
*COMMENTARY* The failure to cope with $1.2410-$1.2413 resistance last week, the
catalyst behind the recent fall, which has slightly surpassed the 61.8% Fibo
retrace level at $1.2266. A low of $1.2258 but has become oversold in the near
term. With the move back above $1.2315-$1.2336 now looking to the congested
$1.2375-85 area for next clues. Will need back through here to revive upside
momentum. Meanwhile, $1.2290-$1.2280 supports.
CABLE TECHS: $1.4104-$1.4133 Next Potential Upside Target Zone
*RES 4: $1.4196 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712
*RES 3: $1.4133/45 1.618 swing $1.4089-$1.4018, Feb 16 high
*RES 2: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712
*RES 1: $1.4089 Mar 19 high
*PRICE: $1.4054 @0850GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4015/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3996 Mar 14 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3950 Initial rally high Mar 16, now support
*SUP 4: $1.3913 Mar 19 low
*COMMENTARY* Finally got the break above $1.3997-$1.4000 on Monday. This
followed by a further move through the next bands of resistance from between
$1.4029-$1.4070. A high of $1.4089 so far, as we head for the 61.8% Fibo retrace
level at $1.4104. Monday's rise created some near term overbought levels, so
support comes initially from $1.4020-$1.4015 and then last Wednesday's $1.3996
high. Ideally pullbacks are held above here, if rally to continue.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.65-Y106.90 Provides Near Term Resistance
*RES 4: Y107.38 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high
*RES 2: Y106.90 76.4% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60
*RES 1: Y106.65 61.8% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60
*PRICE: Y106.36 @0903GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.10/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y105.79 Mar 15, Mar 19 lows
*SUP 3: Y105.60 Mar 16 low
*SUP 4: Y105.25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low
*COMMENTARY* Y105.70 support was considered pivotal near term and was pressured
by last Friday's dip to Y105.60 before seeing a recovery. So far, this has
reached towards the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y106.65 as we recoup some of the
losses seen from the month's Y107.30 high. Will likely need to see a move above
the upper 1% volatility band, at Y107.38 today however, before any real upside
interest will develop. Support Y106.10-Y105.79 now protects that Y105.60 low.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Stalls Below 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: Y133.43 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y129.35
*RES 3: Y133.06 Feb 21 high
*RES 2: Y132.44/51 Mar 13 high, 38.2% Fibo, 1% vol band
*RES 1: Y131.73/77 i'day high, 76.4% Fibo of Y132.44-Y129.61
*PRICE: Y130.98 @0918GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.65/70 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y130.42 Hourly low Mar 19
*SUP 3: Y130.08 Hourly base Mar 16
*SUP 4: Y129.61 Mar 19 low
*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y129.61 has stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level at Y131.77. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end to
the rise at Y131.73. Attention now switches to Y130.75-Y130.42 support, loss
would concern but the Y130.08 level currently remains more pivotal to direction.
Loss would swing bias back to the downside. Above Y131.77 and scope to increase
gains toward Y132.44-Y132.51, where equally important upside decisions are made.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 The Near Term Bar To Recovery Hopes
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Mar 15 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Stg0.8800/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8777 @0922GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8745 Mar 19 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8732 Feb 8 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8717 Feb 1 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8676/87 2% volatility band, Jan 25 low
*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested
trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, continued with a
vengeance Monday. The loss of Stg0.8815 was followed by a further move below
Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771. This now leaves the Feb 8 low at Stg0.8732 and the Feb 1
low at Stg0.8717 protecting the range base at Stg0.8687. In the meantime,
resistance from Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 keeps a lid on near term recovery potential.
AUSSIE TECHS: Sharp Decline Sees Decent Support From $0.7651-$0.7652
*RES 4: $0.7833 Hourly recovery high Mar 15
*RES 3: $0.7804 Mar 16 high
*RES 2: $0.7771 Initial base Mar 16, now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7735/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7698 @0928GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7687 Mar 19 low
*SUP 2: $0.7651/52 6 week bear channel, 76.4% $0.7502-$0.8136
*SUP 3: $0.7644 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7628 Dec 14 low
*COMMENTARY* Continued to lose ground rapidly early on Monday, exacerbated by
the loss of $0.7772-$0.7760 support and the lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7722
by time today. A low of $0.7687 so far, this protecting what currently looks a
decent area of support from between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and
the 6 week bear channel base at $0.7651. Resistance from $0.7735-$0.7740, above
needed for near term respite.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Interesting Resistance From Between $1.3125-$1.3177
*RES 4: $1.3226 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3165/77 Jun 14 low, 2 year falling res line
*RES 2: $1.3132 61.8% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 1: $1.3125 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2803, Mar 19 high
*PRICE: $1.3073 @0936GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3047/48 Mar 19, Mar 16 lows
*SUP 2: $1.3001/02 Mar 7, Mar 5 highs, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2965 Congestion area Mar 14-Mar 15
*SUP 4: $1.2921 Mar 14 low
*COMMENTARY* The rally through $1.3000 continued Monday, reaching $1.3125, the
swing target of the recent $1.3002-$1.2803 fall. This leaves us just shy of the
61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.3132. As a result, became overbought in the near
term, so looking to $1.3048 support for clues. Loss here will likely kick start
a correction, potentially of those gains from $1.2803. Above $1.3132 and the 2
year falling resistance line at $1.3177 becomes the next attraction.
GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Protects Against $1302.8-$1301.4 Fall
*RES 4: $1341.1 Feb 26 high
*RES 3: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7
*RES 2: $1330.1 Mar 14 high
*RES 1: $1321.9 Mar 16 high
*PRICE: $1314.6 @0939GMT
*SUP 1: $1307.1 Feb 8 low
*SUP 2: $1302.8 Mar 1 low
*SUP 3: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*COMMENTARY* Unable to find a way above $1334.1 resistance over the course of
the month and is paying the price as a result. The loss of $1311.2 support now
sees the Feb 8 low at $1307.1 as the remaining protection against a return to
the $1302.8-$1301.4 support area. The latter a 50% Fibo retrace level and guard
against a deeper $1286.1 decline. Meanwhile, $1321.9-$1330.1 provides resistance
against another attempt to reach that elusive $1334.1.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.