MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2258 Back Under Pressure, $1.2209-$1.2186 Below

*RES 4: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 3: $1.2375/85 Mar 14 congestion, Mar 15 high

*RES 2: $1.2359 Mar 19 high

*RES 1: $1.2330/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2266 @1635GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2258 Mar 19 low

*SUP 2: $1.2224 76.4% Fibo of $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2186 1.618 swing of $1.2273-$1.2413

*COMMENTARY* The failure to cope with $1.2410-$1.2413 resistance last week, the

catalyst behind the recent fall, which slightly surpassed the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.2266. A low of $1.2258 before becoming oversold, the subsequent move

back above $1.2315-$1.2336 failing to trouble the congested $1.2375-85 area,

before heading lower again. Beneath $1.2258 and look to $1.2209-$1.2186 for next

support, resistance $1.2330-$1.2335.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3980-$1.3950 Support As Overbought Conditions Kick In

*RES 4: $1.4133/45 1.618 swing $1.4089-$1.4018, Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 2: $1.4089 Mar 19 high

*RES 1: $1.4055/67 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3992 @1645GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3980 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3950 Initial rally high Mar 16, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3913 Mar 19 low

*SUP 4: $1.3890 Mar 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally got the break above $1.3997-$1.4000 on Monday. This

followed by a further move through the next bands of resistance from between

$1.4029-$1.4070. A high of $1.4089 so far, just shy of the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.4104. Monday's rise created some near term overbought levels, so

with the loss of $1.4015-$1.3996, support comes initially from $1.3980-$1.3950.

Ideally pullbacks are now held above the latter. Resistance $1.4055-$1.4067.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.65-Y106.90 Provides Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: Y107.38 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 2: Y106.90 76.4% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60

*RES 1: Y106.65 61.8% Fibo of Y107.30-Y105.60

*PRICE: Y106.41 @1647GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.79 Mar 15, Mar 19 lows

*SUP 3: Y105.60 Mar 16 low

*SUP 4: Y105.25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Y105.70 support was considered pivotal near term and was pressured

by last Friday's dip to Y105.60 before seeing a recovery. So far, this has

reached towards the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y106.65 as we recoup some of the

losses seen from the month's Y107.30 high. Will likely need to see a move above

the upper 1% volatility band, at Y107.38 today however, before any real upside

interest will develop. Support Y106.10-Y105.79 now protects that Y105.60 low.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Stalls Below 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.44/51 Mar 13 high, 38.2% Fibo, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Y131.73/77 i'day high, 76.4% Fibo of Y132.44-Y129.61

*RES 1: Y131.20/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.43 @1650GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.42 Hourly low Mar 19

*SUP 2: Y130.08 Hourly base Mar 16

*SUP 3: Y129.61 Mar 19 low

*SUP 4: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Y129.61 has stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at Y131.77. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end to

the rise at Y131.73. Attention now switches to Y130.42 support, loss would

concern but the Y130.08 level currently remains more pivotal to direction. Below

would swing bias back to the downside. Above Y131.77 and scope to increase gains

toward Y132.44-Y132.51, where equally important upside decisions are made.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 The Near Term Bar To Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Mar 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8800/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8761 @1652GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8745 Mar 19 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8732 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8717 Feb 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8676/87 2% volatility band, Jan 25 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, continued with a

vengeance Monday. The loss of Stg0.8815 was followed by a further move below

Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771. This now leaves the Feb 8 low at Stg0.8732 and the Feb 1

low at Stg0.8717 protecting the range base at Stg0.8687. In the meantime,

resistance from Stg0.8800-Stg0.8810 keeps a lid on near term recovery potential.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Sharp Decline Sees Decent Support From $0.7651-$0.7652 

*RES 4: $0.7833 Hourly recovery high Mar 15

*RES 3: $0.7804 Mar 16 high

*RES 2: $0.7771 Initial base Mar 16, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7735/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7685 @1653GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7685/87 Intraday, Mar 19 lows

*SUP 2: $0.7651/52 6 week bear channel, 76.4% $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 3: $0.7644 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7628 Dec 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Continued to lose ground rapidly early on Monday, exacerbated by

the loss of $0.7772-$0.7760 support and the lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7722

by time today. A low of $0.7685 so far, this protecting what currently looks a

decent area of support from between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and

the 6 week bear channel base at $0.7651. Resistance from $0.7735-$0.7740, above

needed for near term respite.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Interesting Resistance From Between $1.3125-$1.3177

*RES 4: $1.3226 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3165/77 Jun 14 low, 2 year falling res line

*RES 2: $1.3132 61.8% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.3125 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2803, Mar 19 high

*PRICE: $1.3081 @1655GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3047/48 Mar 19, Mar 16 lows

*SUP 2: $1.3001/02 Mar 7, Mar 5 highs, now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2965 Congestion area Mar 14-Mar 15

*SUP 4: $1.2921 Mar 14 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally through $1.3000 continued Monday, reaching $1.3125, the

swing target of the recent $1.3002-$1.2803 fall. This leaves us just shy of the

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.3132. As a result, became overbought in the near

term, so looking to $1.3048 support for clues. Loss here will likely kick start

a correction, potentially of those gains from $1.2803. Above $1.3132 and the 2

year falling resistance line at $1.3177 becomes the next attraction.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Protects Against $1302.8-$1301.4 Fall

*RES 4: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 3: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 2: $1330.1 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: $1321.9 Mar 16 high

*PRICE: $1310.9 @1657GMT

*SUP 1: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Unable to find a way above $1334.1 resistance over the course of

the month and is paying the price as a result. The loss of $1311.2 support now

sees the Feb 8 low at $1307.1 as the remaining protection against a return to

the $1302.8-$1301.4 support area. The latter a 50% Fibo retrace level and guard

against a deeper $1286.1 decline. Meanwhile, $1321.9-$1330.1 provides resistance

against another attempt to reach that elusive $1334.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]