MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pullback Now Has $1.2155-$1.2143 As Potential Support

*RES 4: $1.2329/36 Apr 19, Apr 17 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2299/00 Apr 12 low, Apr 20 recovery high

*RES 2: $1.2270/75 Hourly congestion area Apr 20-23

*RES 1: $1.2245 Apr 24 high, base broken bull channel

*PRICE: $1.2175 @1550GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2153/55 Equality fall from $1.2415, Mar 1 low

*SUP 2: $1.2143 1.618 swing of $1.2182-$1.2245

*SUP 3: $1.2091/93 1.618 swing $1.2215-$1.2415, Sep 8 high

*SUP 4: $1.2059 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The overnight recovery has retested the base of the previously

broken 8 week bull channel at $1.2245. The subsequent pullback is once again

challenging the lower 1% volatility band. Below and look to the Mar 1 low at

$1.2155 next, with added possibility of seeing $1.2153-$1.2143, if the equality

fall and recent swing of $1.2182-$1.2245 play out in full. Lower and

$1.2093-$1.2091 comes into view. Still need above $1.2230-$1.2245 for respite.

CABLE TECHS: Failure To Recover Above $1.4004 A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: $1.4161 Initial low Apr 19, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.4088/08 Apr 20 high, broken 9 week bull channel

*RES 2: $1.4031 Apr 23 high

*RES 1: $1.3997/04 Apr 24 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3937 @1605GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3918 Apr 24 low

*SUP 2: $1.3890 Mar 16 low

*SUP 3: $1.3869 76.4% $1.3712-$1.4377, swing $1.3918-$1.3997

*SUP 4: $1.3846 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Failure to move back above $1.4004 overnight, once again leaves the

downside vulnerable. A loss of Tuesday's $1.3918 base then having the potential

to enter the next region of support, from between the Mar 16 low at $1.3890 and

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3869. Any lower and will be looking to the 2%

volatility band at $1.3846 to protect the Mar 8 low at $1.3782. Need back above

$1.3997-$1.4004 to spark any recovery hopes.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.51-Y109.61 On Sustained Break Above Y109.19

*RES 4: Y110.00/27 2% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y109.79 Feb 8 high, 

*RES 2: Y109.61 1.618 swing of Y109.20-Y108.54

*RES 1: Y109.51 1.618 projection target from Y105.66

*PRICE: Y109.35 @1609GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.70/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low

*SUP 3: Y108.36 Hourly base Apr 23

*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Having capped the rally on Tuesday, the 50% Fibo retrace level at

Y109.19 is under assault today. A sustained break will allow Y109.51-Y109.61

next, a projection target from the Apr 2 base at Y105.66 and the swing of the

recent Y109.20-Y108.54 pullback. Meanwhile, nearest support rises to

Y108.80-Y108.70 and then importantly that Y108.54 low. Support from Y108.65

should really have held the dip yesterday. Y110.00-Y110.27 next targets higher.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Continues With Break Of 50% Fibo Retrace At Y133.23 

*RES 4: Y134.24 61.8% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 3: Y134.02 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y133.80 Feb 12 high

*RES 1: Y133.49 Apr 24 high

*PRICE: Y133.12 @1618GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.90/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.57 Initial rally high Apr 23, now support

*SUP 3: Y132.35/40 Hourly congestion Apr 19-23

*SUP 4: Y132.04/11 Apr 20, Apr 17 lows

*COMMENTARY* Only have to mention 'embroiled in congested trading' and hey

presto! it produces a break. This time higher, in line with the recent trend,

since breaking above the head and shoulders neckline on Apr 5. Has moved through

Y133.09-Y133.23 resistance, possible the rally can stretch toward

Y133.80-Y134.02 next. The latter the current level of the upper 1% volatility

band, always an awkward customer. Y132.57-132.35 support should now hold.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Still Faltering Below Familiar Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8884/86 2% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 2: Stg0.8798 Mar 27 high, 1% volatility band 

*RES 1: Stg0.8790/94 Apr 20 high, 50% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*PRICE: Stg0.8735 @1621GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8725/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8706 Initial rally high Apr 19, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8689 Apr 19 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8661 Apr 17 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break below the 6 month bear channel earlier in

the month, a brief dip to Stg0.8620 was held by the lower 1% volatility band at

the time. The subsequent rise, has now broken back above Stg0.8753-Stg0.8759

resistance but this again sees the Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 region as potential

trouble and threat to extending gains back up the channel. Support moves up to

Stg0.8730-Stg0.8725, with Stg0.8706 more important below.

AUSSIE TECHS: Still See $0.7557-$0.7539 As Decent Support Area

*RES 4: $0.7683 Apr 23 high

*RES 3: $0.7655 Apr 20 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 1: $0.7600/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7559 @1623GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7552/57 Intraday low, 10 week bear channel base *SUP 2: $0.7547 2%

volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7539 Equality fall from $0.7813 to $0.7917-$0.7643

*SUP 4: $0.7502 Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Now approaching decent support from within the $0.7557-$0.7539

area. In amongst here lies the lower 2% volatility band, at $0.7547 today.

Always cautious on any break below here, as never usually has any longevity.

Last happened on Feb 8-9 and was quickly reversed. That said, will need a lift

firstly back through $0.7600-$0.7610 and more importantly $0.7621 before any

upside belief will appear. Below $0.7539 and Dec 8 low next at $0.7502.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: A $1.2813 Hold Is Important To Upside Momentum

*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 3: $1.2948 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: $1.2897 61.8% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*PRICE: $1.2872 @1628GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2830/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2813 Apr 24 low

*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low

*SUP 4: $1.2676/86 Apr 19 high, initial rally high Apr 20

*COMMENTARY* The rally has extended through the potentially troublesome

$1.2846-$1.2848 region, the subsequent dip to $1.2813 yesterday helped to remove

some of the near term overbought conditions. Now looking to the 61.8% Fibo

retrace at $1.2897 for next resistance, $1.2941-$1.2948 of more likely

consequence higher. Support $1.2840-$1.2830 but below $1.2813 would caution now

and suggest the rise was losing some momentum, $1.2750 then below.

GOLD TECHS: $1317.6-$1315.5 Next Support After 8 Week Bull Channel Break 

*RES 4: $1350.6 Apr 9 high

*RES 3: $1345.8 Apr 20 high

*RES 2: $1335.8 Apr 23 high

*RES 1: $1332.0 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1322.0 @1632GMT

*SUP 1: $1317.6 76.4% Fibo of $1302.8-$1365.4

*SUP 2: $1315.5 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1332.0 today,

following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2 high

earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1326.7,

opens the way for a continued $1317.6-$1315.5 fall. The latter keeping us away

from a move back towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime, that $1332.0

and then Monday's $1335.8 high provide initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]