MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fibo Support From $1.2055 Offers Near Term Reprieve

*RES 4: $1.2210 Apr 26 high

*RES 3: $1.2182 Apr 24 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2156/60 Initial low Apr 26, Apr 25 low

*RES 1: $1.2139 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2110 @0750GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2075 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2032/55 11 week bear channel, 50% $1.1554-$1.2556 

*SUP 3: $1.1990 1.618 proj'n tgt from $1.2415, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: $1.1956/61 1.618 swing $1.2155-$1.2477, Nov 27 high 

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2055 offer some support

to the 2 week decline from the Apr 17 high at $1.2415. The subsequent bounce has

resistance from between$1.2156-$1.2182 but needs to overcome the Apr 26 high at

$1.2210, before the chance of seeing a higher $1.2245-$1.2329 recovery.

Meanwhile, some near term support from $1.2075 protects against another fall,

$1.2032-$1.1990 then the next band of support below $1.2055.

CABLE TECHS: Has Congested Support From Between $1.3734-$1.3702

*RES 4: $1.3935 Apr 27 high

*RES 3: $1.3895 Apr 26 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3865/70 hourly basing area Apr 27, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3810/20 Hourly resistance 

*PRICE: $1.3762 @0815GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3734/47 2018 bull channel base, Apr 27 low

*SUP 2: $1.3712/15 Mar 1 low, weekly support line Mar 2017

*SUP 3: $1.3675 76.4% Fibo of $1.3458-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1.3747 on Friday, as we move toward an area of congested

support from between the 2018 bull channel base at $1.3734 and the Mar 1 low at

$1.3712. Slightly below here resides the lower 2% volatility band, at $1.3702 by

time today and the protection against a further $1.3675-$1.3659 slip. Resistance

initially from $1.3810-$1.3820, above would allow $1.3865-$1.3895 next but back

above Friday's $1.3935 high is currently needed to generate any real momentum.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.51-Y109.61 Still Proving Difficult Resistance

*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y109.79 Feb 8 high, 

*RES 2: Y109.61 1.618 swing of Y109.20-Y108.54

*RES 1: Y109.51/54 1.618 proj'n from Y105.66, Apr 27 high

*PRICE: Y109.28 @0825GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.75/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low

*SUP 3: Y108.13 Hourly base Apr 23

*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Y109.51-Y109.61 proved a tough area of resistance last week, a

combination of a projection target from the Apr 2 low at Y105.66 and the swing

of the more recent Y109.20-Y108.54 pullback. These currently preventing a higher

Y109.79-Y110.27 rise. Support from above Y108.85-Y108.75 keeps the near term

outlook bullish but any lower would caution putting the Apr 24 low at Y108.54 at

risk and with it the chance of a deeper correction of gains from Y106.88.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.82-Y131.76 The Brake Against A Deeper Correction

*RES 4: Y133.49 Apr 24 high

*RES 3: Y133.25/26 Apr 26, Apr 25 highs

*RES 2: Y132.87/90 Initial pullback Apr 24, Apr 25 low

*RES 1: Y132.55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.37 @0840GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.76/82 38.2% Fibo, Apr 12 low, Mar 27 high

*SUP 2: Y131.22/32 50% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Y130.68 61.8% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49

*SUP 4: Y129.98/02 Apr 2 low, 2% vol band, 76.4% Fibo 

*COMMENTARY* Last Tuesday's Y133.49 high has been the zenith of the recovery so

far, subsequent rallies failed to trouble it and the loss of Y132.56 support

spoiled the look of recent upside momentum. The next real area of interest comes

from between Y131.82-Y131.76 and will need to hold here, if a deeper correction

of gains from the Mar 22 low at Y128.95, is to be avoided. A move back above

Y132.55 would assist initially, Y132.90-Y133.26 higher.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rallies Back Into Top Half of 6 Month Bear Channel 

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 2: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 1: Stg0.8830 1% volatility band 

*PRICE: Stg0.8806 @0852GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8765 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8750 Apr 26 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Support from Stg0.8681 held the pullback last week and Friday's

recovery saw us back to challenging the previously troublesome

Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance. Today's move higher takes us back into the upper

half of the 6 month bear channel, the Stg0.8830-Stg0.8835 area likely to provide

the next test to this rally. As a result, nearest support of note moves up to

Stg0.8765-Stg0.8750. The equality rise at Stg0.8851 is next above Stg0.8835.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7589-$0.7600 Still In Way Of Any Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: $0.7639 38.2% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7532

*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $0.7595/00 Congestion area Apr 23-24

*RES 1: $0.7589 Apr 26 high

*PRICE: $0.7547 @0906GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7532/35 Apr 27 low, 12 week bear channel base

*SUP 2: $0.7502 Dec 8 low

*SUP 3: $0.7481/86 50% Fibo of $0.6827-$0.8136, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: $0.7425 2018 weekly bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Have seen a move below the base of the $0.7553-$0.7539 support

area, a low of $0.7532, before encountering some near term oversold conditions.

In this respect, last Thursday's $0.7589 high and then the congested

$0.7595-$0.7600 region, offer resistance and any recovery of note will be

beholden to a move through here. Below $0.7532 and there is currently not much

showing until the Dec 8 low at $0.7502 and then the $0.7486-$0.7481 area.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2821-$1.2813 Provides Important Near Term Support

*RES 4: $1.3026 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: $1.2897/01 61.8% of $1.3125-$1.2528, Apr 27 high

*PRICE: $1.2858 @0916GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2813/21 Apr 24, Apr 26 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2750 Apr 23 low

*SUP 3: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20

*SUP 4: $1.2676/86 Apr 19 high, initial rally high Apr 20

*COMMENTARY* Extended through $1.2846-$1.2848 last week, an interim dip to

$1.2813 helping to remove some of the near term overbought conditions. Now

looking to clear the 61.8% Fibo retrace at $1.2897, then $1.2941-$1.2944 of more

consequence higher. Support currently comes from $1.2821 and that $1.2813. A

loss would caution now and suggest the rise was losing momentum and open the way

for some deeper correction of gains from the Apr 17 low at $1.2528.

GOLD TECHS: $1315.4 Next Support After 8 Week Bull Channel Break 

*RES 4: $1350.6 Apr 9 high

*RES 3: $1345.8 Apr 20 high

*RES 2: $1341.0 Apr 19 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1334.9 Base of broken 9 week bull channel

*PRICE: $1317.3 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1315.4 Apr 26 low

*SUP 2: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1334.9

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued $1315.4-$1307.3 fall. The latter keeping

us away from a move back towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime, that

$1334.9 level provides initial resistance to any recovery efforts.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]