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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Finds Support From 61.8% Fibo Level On Wednesday
*RES 4: $1.2139 Apr 30 high
*RES 3: $1.2096/06 Apr 26 low, Apr 30 hourly recovery high
*RES 2: $1.2055/64 Apr 27, Apr 30 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2010/32 Hourly resistance, May 2 high
*PRICE: $1.2000 @0825GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1937 61.8% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556
*SUP 2: $1.1916 Jan 9 low
*SUP 3: $1.1872 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477
*COMMENTARY* Further downside exuberance on Wednesday saw the $1.1981-$1.1954
area lost, with eventual support found from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1.1937. Is currently correcting some oversold conditions, with $1.2010 the
initial bar to any bounce, $1.2032 higher but no real corrective impact will be
felt, until such time as resistance from between $1.2055-$1.2106 is overcome.
Below $1.1937 and the Jan 9 low at $1.1916, ahead of the 2% vol band.
CABLE TECHS: Pace Of Decline Slows Above $1.3550-$1.3541 Support
*RES 4: $1.3773 May 1 high
*RES 3: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3667 May 2 high
*RES 1: $1.3630/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3595 @0838GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3550/55 Dec 1 high, May 2 low
*SUP 2: $1.3541/43 Equality fall from $1.4000, 61.8% Fibo
*SUP 3: $1.3534 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3458 Jan 11 low
*COMMENTARY* Lost a bit more ground on Wednesday, pulling up just above the Dec
1 high at $1.3550 and the dual support from the slightly lower $1.3543-$1.3541
area. The slowed pace of the decline has allowed a move back within the lower 2%
volatility band, at $1.3534 by time today. Resistance is initially from
$1.3630-$1.3640 but any recovery hopes will benefit further by a move back above
Wednesday's $1.3667 high, $1.3713-$1.3773 then possible.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  1% Volatility Band Caps Rally On Wednesday
*RES 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y110.48 Feb 2 high
*RES 2: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band
*RES 1: Y110.04 May 2 high
*PRICE: Y109.61 @0844GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.45/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y109.18 Initial recovery high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 3: Y108.97 Apr 27 low
*SUP 4: Y108.54 Apr 24 low
*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance on Tuesday,
but so far the rise has been contained by the upper 1% volatility band, at
Y110.06 on Wednesday. This has risen by time today to join the 61.8% Fibo
retrace level at Y110.27. Am aware that the rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63
is beginning to look mature and a cap below the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is
possible. Meanwhile, support from Y109.50-Y109.18 but Y108.97 remains key.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.90-Y132.12 The Bar To Recovery Potential
*RES 4: Y132.87/90 Initial pullback Apr 24, Apr 25 low
*RES 3: Y132.55 Apr 30 high
*RES 2: Y132.12 May 2 high
*RES 1: Y131.80/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y131.52 @0853GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.22/24 50% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49, May 2 low
*SUP 2: Y130.97 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y130.68 61.8% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49
*SUP 4: Y129.99 Apr 2 low, 76.4% of Y128.95-Y133.49
*COMMENTARY* Further fall on Wednesday was held just above the 50% Fibo retrace
level at Y131.22. Oversold as a result in the near term, so looking towards
Y131.80-Y131.90 for initial resistance, yesterday's Y132.12 high of more
consequence higher. Will need back through here, before the chance of a greater
correction of losses seen since last week's Y133.49 high. Below Y131.22 and the
1% volatility band at Y130.97 is the protection against a further Y130.68 fall.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8857 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol
*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790
*RES 1: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*PRICE: Stg0.8821 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Support from Stg0.8681 held the pullback last week and Friday's
recovery saw us back to challenging the previously troublesome
Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance. Monday's move higher takes us back into the
upper half of the 6 month bear channel, the Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to
provide the next test to this rally. As a result, nearest support moves up to
Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter would caution near term.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7547-$0.7552 Now The Near Term Bar To Recoveries
*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $0.7547/52 May 1 high, Apr 25 low
*PRICE: $0.7526 @0914GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7473 May 1 low
*SUP 2: $0.7425/35 2018 weekly bear channel base, hrly support
*SUP 3: $0.7408 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7373 May 29 2017 low
*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued on Tuesday, breaking beneath the
$0.7510-$0.7502 support area. Below and the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level
at $0.7481 is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, nearest
resistance of note falls to $0.7547-$0.7552 but currently requires a move back
above last Friday's $0.7585 high, before any correction of note is likely. Lose
$0.7473 and $0.7435-$0.7425 is next support.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Failure To Rally Higher Than $1.2888 A Concern
*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 3: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 2: $1.2914 May 1 high
*RES 1: $1.2888 May 2 high
*PRICE: $1.2836 @0920GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 
*SUP 2: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 3: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20
*SUP 4: $1.2676 Apr 19 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under pressure again on
Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from
$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak at $1.2914, falling shy of the anticipated
$1.2941-$1.2944 area before yielding ground again. A sustained break below
$1.2806 will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base at
$1.2528, beginning with $1.2750-$1.2718. Back above $1.2888 would ease pressure.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4
*RES 4: $1337.7 Base of broken 9 week bull channel
*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $1325.0 Apr 30 high
*RES 1: $1315.4 Apr 26 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1312.1 @0922GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low
*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1337.7
today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2
high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,
suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the
meantime, $1315.4-$1325.0 presents initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email:

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