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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Finds Support From 61.8% Fibo Level On Wednesday
*RES 4: $1.2139 Apr 30 high
*RES 3: $1.2096/06 Apr 26 low, Apr 30 hourly recovery high
*RES 2: $1.2055/64 Apr 27, Apr 30 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2010/32 Hourly resistance, May 2 high
*PRICE: $1.2000 @0825GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1937 61.8% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556
*SUP 2: $1.1916 Jan 9 low
*SUP 3: $1.1872 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477
*COMMENTARY* Further downside exuberance on Wednesday saw the $1.1981-$1.1954
area lost, with eventual support found from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1.1937. Is currently correcting some oversold conditions, with $1.2010 the
initial bar to any bounce, $1.2032 higher but no real corrective impact will be
felt, until such time as resistance from between $1.2055-$1.2106 is overcome.
Below $1.1937 and the Jan 9 low at $1.1916, ahead of the 2% vol band.
CABLE TECHS: Pace Of Decline Slows Above $1.3550-$1.3541 Support
*RES 4: $1.3773 May 1 high
*RES 3: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3667 May 2 high
*RES 1: $1.3630/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3595 @0838GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3550/55 Dec 1 high, May 2 low
*SUP 2: $1.3541/43 Equality fall from $1.4000, 61.8% Fibo
*SUP 3: $1.3534 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3458 Jan 11 low
*COMMENTARY* Lost a bit more ground on Wednesday, pulling up just above the Dec
1 high at $1.3550 and the dual support from the slightly lower $1.3543-$1.3541
area. The slowed pace of the decline has allowed a move back within the lower 2%
volatility band, at $1.3534 by time today. Resistance is initially from
$1.3630-$1.3640 but any recovery hopes will benefit further by a move back above
Wednesday's $1.3667 high, $1.3713-$1.3773 then possible.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 1% Volatility Band Caps Rally On Wednesday
*RES 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y110.48 Feb 2 high
*RES 2: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band
*RES 1: Y110.04 May 2 high
*PRICE: Y109.61 @0844GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.45/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y109.18 Initial recovery high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 3: Y108.97 Apr 27 low
*SUP 4: Y108.54 Apr 24 low
*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance on Tuesday,
but so far the rise has been contained by the upper 1% volatility band, at
Y110.06 on Wednesday. This has risen by time today to join the 61.8% Fibo
retrace level at Y110.27. Am aware that the rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63
is beginning to look mature and a cap below the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is
possible. Meanwhile, support from Y109.50-Y109.18 but Y108.97 remains key.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.90-Y132.12 The Bar To Recovery Potential
*RES 4: Y132.87/90 Initial pullback Apr 24, Apr 25 low
*RES 3: Y132.55 Apr 30 high
*RES 2: Y132.12 May 2 high
*RES 1: Y131.80/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y131.52 @0853GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.22/24 50% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49, May 2 low
*SUP 2: Y130.97 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y130.68 61.8% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49
*SUP 4: Y129.99 Apr 2 low, 76.4% of Y128.95-Y133.49
*COMMENTARY* Further fall on Wednesday was held just above the 50% Fibo retrace
level at Y131.22. Oversold as a result in the near term, so looking towards
Y131.80-Y131.90 for initial resistance, yesterday's Y132.12 high of more
consequence higher. Will need back through here, before the chance of a greater
correction of losses seen since last week's Y133.49 high. Below Y131.22 and the
1% volatility band at Y130.97 is the protection against a further Y130.68 fall.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8857 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol
*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790
*RES 1: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*PRICE: Stg0.8821 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Support from Stg0.8681 held the pullback last week and Friday's
recovery saw us back to challenging the previously troublesome
Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance. Monday's move higher takes us back into the
upper half of the 6 month bear channel, the Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to
provide the next test to this rally. As a result, nearest support moves up to
Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter would caution near term.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7547-$0.7552 Now The Near Term Bar To Recoveries
*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $0.7547/52 May 1 high, Apr 25 low
*PRICE: $0.7526 @0914GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7473 May 1 low
*SUP 2: $0.7425/35 2018 weekly bear channel base, hrly support
*SUP 3: $0.7408 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7373 May 29 2017 low
*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued on Tuesday, breaking beneath the
$0.7510-$0.7502 support area. Below and the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level
at $0.7481 is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, nearest
resistance of note falls to $0.7547-$0.7552 but currently requires a move back
above last Friday's $0.7585 high, before any correction of note is likely. Lose
$0.7473 and $0.7435-$0.7425 is next support.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Failure To Rally Higher Than $1.2888 A Concern
*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 3: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 2: $1.2914 May 1 high
*RES 1: $1.2888 May 2 high
*PRICE: $1.2836 @0920GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows
*SUP 2: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 3: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20
*SUP 4: $1.2676 Apr 19 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under pressure again on
Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from
$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak at $1.2914, falling shy of the anticipated
$1.2941-$1.2944 area before yielding ground again. A sustained break below
$1.2806 will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base at
$1.2528, beginning with $1.2750-$1.2718. Back above $1.2888 would ease pressure.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4
*RES 4: $1337.7 Base of broken 9 week bull channel
*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $1325.0 Apr 30 high
*RES 1: $1315.4 Apr 26 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1312.1 @0922GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low
*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1337.7
today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2
high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,
suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the
meantime, $1315.4-$1325.0 presents initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.