MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Next Band Of Support Seen Between $1.1894-$1.1868

*RES 4: $1.2106 Hourly recovery high Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.2032 May 2 high

*RES 2: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 1: $1.1978/85 May 7 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1894 @0910GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1883/94 Intraday low, 1.618 swing $1.1938-$1.2009

*SUP 2: $1.1868 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477

*SUP 4: $1.1781/90 2% vol band, 76.4% of $1.1554-$1.2556

*COMMENTARY* Trying to push lower again today, a low of $1.1883, just below

support from the swing target at $1.1894. Lower and can allow $1.1868 next,

which becomes the brake to the projection target at $1.1828 and the key 76.4%

Fibo support at $1.1790. Resistance still from $1.1978-$1.1985, above and then

$1.2009 and $1.2032 of more importance higher. Through here and some correction

of losses from $1.2414 then underway.

CABLE TECHS: Held By 2% Volatility Band As Pace Of Decline Slows 

*RES 4: $1.3667 May 2 high

*RES 3: $1.3630 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.3587/93 May 4, intraday highs

*RES 1: $1.3560/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3510 @0914GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3487 May 4 low

*SUP 2: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1.3421 1.618 swing of $1.3487-$1.3593

*SUP 4: $1.3400 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recently slowed pace of the decline has allowed a move back

within the lower 2% volatility band and this held the fall on Friday at $1.3487.

This has moved lower by time this week and at $1.3400 becomes the protection to

the next Fibo level of note at $1.3386. In between, there is plenty of support

from $1.3458 to $1.3421. Resistance from $1.3587 has been squeezed today but any

recovery hopes will only benefit by a move back above Thursday's $1.3630 high.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y108.65-Y108.54 Area Is Still Key To Retaining Upside

Momentum

*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high

*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.40/45 May 7 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y108.98 @0807GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.89 7 week rising support line

*SUP 2: Y108.54/65 Apr 24, May 4 lows

*SUP 3: Y108.19 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04

*COMMENTARY* The rise was contained by the upper 1% volatility band last week,

the high of Y110.04 on Wednesday, failing to reach the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at Y110.27. The subsequent fall has been guided by the 7 week rising support

line, at Y108.89 by time today. A loss would be cautionary but greater respect

should still be paid to the Y108.65-Y108.54 area. In the interim,

Y109.40-Y109.45 and then Y109.75-Y109.80, stand in the way of any recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Swing Target Protects Key Y128.95-Y128.75 Area

*RES 4: Y131.67 May 3 high

*RES 3: Y131.14/24 Hourly recovery high May 3, May 2 low

*RES 2: Y130.64 Recovery high May 4

*RES 1: Y130.25/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y129.59 @0922GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.44 1.618 swing of Y129.90-Y130.64

*SUP 2: Y128.95 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Y128.75/85 2% vol band, 2 year bull channel base 

*SUP 4: Y128.33 Aug 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Pushing lower again today, the 2 month median line at Y129.79 under

pressure. Below here and the swing target at Y129.44 then becomes the protection

to the Mar 22 base at Y128.95 and the 2 year bull channel base projection at

Y128.85. As a consequence, nearest resistance falls to Y130.25-Y130.35 but it

remains the higher Y130.64 level, that is the key to any lasting recovery. The

2% volatility band at Y128.75 can catch any loss of Y128.85.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Tests Top Of Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761 Support

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8857/74 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol

*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 1: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8804 @0822GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance took

us back into the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the

Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a

result, nearest support moves up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter

would caution near term. Directly through Stg0.8857 and the upper 1% volatility

band at Stg0.8874 can be the next bar to a higher Stg0.8886 rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: Failure To Move Above $0.7585 Sees Downside Pressure Resume

*RES 4: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $0.7585 Apr 27 high

*RES 2: $0.7561 May 4 high

*RES 1: $0.7520/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7472 @0834GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7460 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7449 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7419 1.618 swing target of $0.7473-$0.7561

*SUP 4: $0.7397 2018 weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continues, the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level

at $0.7481, the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, have seen a

recovery to $0.7561 but currently requires a move back above the Apr 27 high at

$0.7585, before any correction of losses from the Apr 19 high at $0.7813 is

likely. Nearest support now from above $0.7460, lose here and $0.7449-$0.7419

then protects against a deeper $0.7397-$0.7373 fall.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Tests Into Next Key Resistance At $1.2984

*RES 4: $1.3125 Mar 19 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3045 Max 5th wave target in rise from $1.2528

*RES 2: $1.2998/02 1% volatility band, Mar 5 high

*RES 1: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*PRICE: $1.2979 @0847GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2914/18 May 1, May 4 highs, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2876 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2840/41 May 4, May 7 lows

*SUP 4: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 

*COMMENTARY* The $1.2806-$1.2803 region withstood pressure at the turn of the

month, more latterly the $1.2841-$1.2840 area. This has allowed a fresh rally

through $1.2918 and now $1.2944. This has the 76.4% Fibo retrace level and swing

target at $1.2984 as the next potential barrier higher. As a result, nearest

support also on the rise, $1.2918-$1.2914 now ahead of the day's $1.2876 low.

Sustained break of $1.2984 sees $1.2998-$1.3045 next.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1340.5 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1311.2 @0851GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1340.5

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the

meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]