MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Finds Support From Above $1.1828 Projection Target

*RES 4: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 3: $1.1978 May 7 high

*RES 2: $1.1939 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.1900/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1884 @1625GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477

*SUP 2: $1.1790 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*SUP 3: $1.1778 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1738 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Pushing lower again today, initially below the swing target at

$1.1894 and then more latterly hourly support at $1.1868. A low of $1.1838 on

the day, just above the next support from the projection target at $1.1828. This

the remaining protection to the key 76.4% Fibo level at $1.1790. Resistance from

$1.1900-$1.1910, although it will currently take a move above $1.1939-$1.1978 to

raise any corrective hopes of the fall from last month's $1.2414 high.

CABLE TECHS: Held By 2% Volatility Band As Pace Of Decline Slows 

*RES 4: $1.3667 May 2 high

*RES 3: $1.3630 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.3587/93 May 4, intraday highs

*RES 1: $1.3570 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3560 @1630GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3484/87 Intraday, May 4 lows

*SUP 2: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1.3421 1.618 swing of $1.3487-$1.3593

*SUP 4: $1.3400 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recently slowed pace of the decline has allowed a move back

within the lower 2% volatility band and this held the fall on Friday at $1.3487.

This has moved lower by time this week and at $1.3400 becomes the protection to

the next Fibo level of note at $1.3386. In between, there is plenty of support

from $1.3458 to $1.3421. Resistance from $1.3587 has been squeezed today but any

recovery hopes will only benefit by a move back above Thursday's $1.3630 high.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y108.65-Y108.54 Area Is Still Key To Retaining Upside

Momentum

*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high

*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.40/45 May 7 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.16 @1632GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.89 7 week rising support line

*SUP 2: Y108.54/65 Apr 24, May 4 lows

*SUP 3: Y108.19 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04

*COMMENTARY* The rise was contained by the upper 1% volatility band last week,

the high of Y110.04 on Wednesday, failing to reach the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at Y110.27. The subsequent fall has been guided by the 7 week rising support

line, at Y108.89 by time today. A loss would be cautionary but greater respect

should still be paid to the Y108.65-Y108.54 area. In the interim,

Y109.40-Y109.45 and then Y109.75-Y109.80, stand in the way of any recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Finds Support From Above The Key Y128.95-Y128.75 Area

*RES 4: Y130.88 May 4 high

*RES 3: Y130.64 Hourly recovery high May 4

*RES 2: Y130.31 Hourly high May 7

*RES 1: Y130.00/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y129.70 @1639GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.23 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y128.95 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Y128.75/85 2% vol band, 2 year bull channel base 

*SUP 4: Y128.33 Aug 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower again today, the 2 month median line at Y129.79 giving

way early doors. A low of Y129.23 just below the swing target at Y129.44. This

now becomes the protection to the Mar 22 base at Y128.95 and the 2 year bull

channel base projection at Y128.85. As a consequence, nearest resistance falls

to Y130.00-Y130.31, above would encourage although most will be looking to the

higher Y130.64 level for the key to any lasting recovery.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Testing Back Towards Stg0.8761 Support

*RES 4: Stg0.8857/74 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol

*RES 3: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 2: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8810 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8768 @1645GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8761 May 1 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8742 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8681-Stg0.8842

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714/19 Initial rally high Apr 27, 76.4% Fibo

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 took us back into

the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area

then likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a result, nearest support

moved up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, a loss of the latter would caution near term

and allow some deeper correction, initially of gains from the Apr 26 low at

Stg0.8681. Nearest  resistance falls to the day's Stg0.8810 high.

AUSSIE TECHS: Downside Pressure Resumes Toward Swing Target At $0.7419

*RES 4: $0.7561 May 4 high

*RES 3: $0.7531 Hourly recovery high May 7

*RES 2: $0.7510 Hourly high/low May 7-8

*RES 1: $0.7493 May 7 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7455 @1735GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7434 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7419 1.618 swing target of $0.7473-$0.7561

*SUP 3: $0.7397 2018 weekly bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.7372 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continues, a low of $0.7434 so far today, as the

$0.7460-$0.7449 area is the latest support to give way. This leaves the swing

target at $0.7419 as the remaining protection to the 2018 weekly bear channel

base at $0.7397. In the meantime, nearest resistance comes from Monday's $0.7493

low and then $0.7510. It is however, the higher $0.7531 level that is currently

the key to any better recovery prospects.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Spikes Key Resistance At $1.2984 Into 1% Vol Band

*RES 4: $1.3125 Mar 19 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3045 Max 5th wave target in rise from $1.2528

*RES 2: $1.2998/02 1% volatility band, Mar 5 high

*RES 1: $1.2975/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2960 @1748GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2914/18 May 1, May 4 highs, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2876 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2840/41 May 4, May 7 lows

*SUP 4: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 

*COMMENTARY* A brief spike through key resistance at $1.2984 was abruptly halted

by the upper 1% volatility band at $1.2998. The subsequent pullback now allows

some earlier resistance to appear again between $1.2975-$1.2985. Nearest support

of note remains from the former highs of $1.2918-$1.2914 and it will take a loss

of the day's $1.2876 low to upset recent upside momentum, then putting $1.2840

back under pressure. Directly through $1.2998-$1.3002 and $1.3045 next.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1340.5 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1313.3 @1750GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1340.5

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the

meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]