MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $1.2072 21-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.2019 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1916 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead of

this region. Above $1.2053 is needed to shift initial focus back to

$1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close below $1.1871 to see pressure back on

2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and

focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3617 Remains Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3617 High May 9

*PRICE: $1.3546 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 2: $1.3393 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15 

*SUP 4: $1.3208 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: Oscillation around the 200-DMA ($1.3553) continues but follow

through remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum

divergence seen as key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above $1.3617 to

gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3792-1.3922

where, 55 ($1.3922) & 100 ($1.3892) DMAs are noted. Bears still need a close

below $1.3456 to initially target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.45 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.17 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High May 2

*PRICE: Y109.93 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.13 Low May 11 

*SUP 2: Y108.81 Low May 8 

*SUP 3: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 4: Y108.46 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips following recent

rejections ahead of the 200-DMA & 55-WMA. Bears still need a close below the

100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift focus to

Y106.57-107.85 where the 55-DMA (Y107.35) is located. Bulls continue to look for

a close above the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall

focus to tests of 2018 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Failed To Take Out 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y132.38 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.51 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.37 High May 14

*PRICE: Y131.03 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.74 Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 2: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: Y129.19 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite day studies correcting from O/S and adding support to the

case for a bigger correction, bears take comfort in the hesitation around the

55-DMA (Y131.25) to start the new week. The topside failure around the 55-DMA

now sees focus back on the break of Y129.91 needed to reconfirm immediate focus

on 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to add to confidence and

above the 100-DMA (Y132.67) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Worry

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8870 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High May 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.8797 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8782 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8725 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Thursday bought bulls breathing room but the

hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted is less than

ideal. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and

to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease

pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8725 to shift focus back to 2018

lows.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2849

*RES 4: $1.3048 - Low Mar 16 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2996 - High May 5

*RES 2: $1.2849 - High May 10

*RES 1: $1.2834 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2821 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2731 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.2686 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2647 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2579 - High Apr 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off last week is starting to see support emerge on dips

with bears struggling to gain traction below the 21-DMA ($1.2808). Bears

continue to look for the close below the 200-DMA needed to confirm initial focus

on $1.2528 Apr lows and overall focus on 2018 lows. Bulls still need a close

above $1.2849 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to shift immediate focus to

$1.2996-1.3048.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7679 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7570 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7511 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls and places

the recovery from $0.7410 in question. Bears look for a close below $0.7518 to

gain breathing room and below $0.7472 to return immediate focus to 2018 lows and

then $0.7326 June lows beneath. Bulls now need a close above $0.7590 to confirm

a break of the 21-DMA and above $0.7648 to shift initial focus to $0.7679-0.7735

where the 55-DMA is located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1301.5 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $1326.8 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1317.4 - Low May 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $1310.0 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1306.5 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 3: $1293.3 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back to the 200-DMA last week resulted in a

test of key DMAs only to be rejected Friday. The 55-DMA capped Friday with bulls

still needing a close above $1332.6 to gain traction above key DMAs and to

return focus to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are found. Bears continue to

look for a close below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the

200-WMA ($1234.5).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]