MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1889

*RES 4: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 3: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1838 High May 17

*PRICE: $1.1810 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1761 2018 Low May 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1696 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead. The

sell-off that followed resulted in fresh 2018 lows with bears now initially

focused on $1.1690-1.1716 with overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows. Bulls look for

a close above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a correction back to

$1.1987-1.2053 where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3617 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 3: $1.3617 High May 9 

*RES 2: $1.3572 High May 15 

*RES 1: $1.3538 Hourly resistance May 17

*PRICE: $1.3494 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3471 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $1.3449 2018 Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3393 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows and

closes below the 200-DMA ($1.3561). The $1.3617 resistance remains key with

bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift

initial focus to $1.3792-1.3906 where, 55 ($1.3906) & 100 ($1.3893) DMAs are

noted. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.3449 to initially target

$1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Closes Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.83 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.22 High Jan 22

*PRICE: Y111.01 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.47 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 4: Y109.13 Low May 11

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows with the close above the 55-WMA adding

support to the case for a test of Y111.22-98. A close above Y111.98 is then

needed to target Y112.97-113.75 where the 200-WMA, Dec and 2018 highs are noted.

Bears still need a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room and below the

100-DMA (Y108.39) to shift initial focus back to Y107.34-85 where the 55-DMA is

noted. The Bollinger top (Y110.93) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.37 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y132.21 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y131.27 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.24 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.07 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.22 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Y129.51 Low May 16 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y129.91 lacked follow through Wednesday which is less

than ideal for bears given daily studies correcting from O/S. Y131.37 remains

key resistance this week with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish

pressure and above the 100-DMA (Y132.54) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. While

Y131.37 caps bears initially focus on 2018 lows with a close below needed to

target the daily bear channel base around Y125.52 today.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8782

*RES 4: Gbp0.8866 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8782 High May 16 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8760 Hourly resistance May 17

*PRICE: Gbp0.8746 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8710 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8618 2018 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted has

resulted in closes back below the 55-DMA and dips below Gbp0.8725 with immediate

focus now on Gbp0.8664-78. Below Gbp0.8664 confirms focus on tests of 2018 lows.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. The Gbp0.8782 resistance is

key today. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8782 to return pressure to

Gbp0.8844-0.8904.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2845 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.3048 - Low Mar 16 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2996 - High May 5

*RES 2: $1.2923 - High May 15

*RES 1: $1.2845 - High May 17

*PRICE: $1.2816 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2731 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.2693 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2649 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2579 - High Apr 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2731 support reconfirmed significance with the pair bouncing

ahead to now flirt with the 55-DMA ($1.2834). Bulls now look for a close above

$1.2845 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus back to

$1.2923-1.2996. The $1.2649-1.2731 support region where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted

remains key overall. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to initially target

$1.2828 Apr lows and then $1.2255 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7665 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 1: $0.7533 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7510 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7495 - Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returned to the 21-DMA after bears failed to trouble 2018

lows so far this week. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to $0.7648. Bears

continue to look for a close below 2018 lows to confirm focus on the $0.7326-68

region where May & June 17 lows are noted. Daily studies are well placed for a

fresh leg lower.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above 200-DMA To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1296.9 - High May 16

*PRICE: $1288.3 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.4 - 2018 Low May 17 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows have defined so far with closes below 55 & 200-WMAs

adding weight to the bearish case and immediate focus on $1268.9-1277.7 where

the 100-WMA is situated. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls now needing a close

above the $1301.5 to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to hint at a

correction to $1324.4-1332.6.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]