MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Holds Into Decent Support Between $1.1717-$1.1709

*RES 4: $1.1854 May 16 high

*RES 3: $1.1822 May 18 high

*RES 2: $1.1790/95 Congestion area May 17-18

*RES 1: $1.1780 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1757 @1530GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1713/17 Nov 21 & Dec 12 lows, 1% volatility band, 

*SUP 2: $1.1709 38.2% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*SUP 3: $1.1649 Oct 6 low

*SUP 4: $1.1616 May 2016 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Sliding earlier towards decent support from $1.1717-$1.1709. This

region includes the lower 1% volatility band, as well as a 38.2% Fibo

retracement of the $1.0340-$1.2556 rise seen between January last year and

February this. Meanwhile, $1.1780 has provided resistance, $1.1790-$1.1795 on

any break higher. Currently it would take a move back above $1.1822 to make a

real difference. Lose $1.1709 and minor ahead of $1.1616-$1.1592.

CABLE TECHS: Heads Toward Top Of Next $1.3386-$1.3346 Support Zone

*RES 4: $1.3570 May 17 high

*RES 3: $1.3528 May 18 high

*RES 2: $1.3490/95 Hourly congestion area May 17-18

*RES 1: $1.3455/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3419 @1535GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3383/86 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377

*SUP 2: $1.3377 1.618 swing of $1.3451-$1.3570

*SUP 3: $1.3346 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3302/03 Dec 15, Dec 12 lows

*COMMENTARY* After a couple of weeks of waiting we have finally got the test

into the top of the next region of support at $1.3386-$1.3377. This includes the

lower 1% volatility band at $1.3383 by time today. Any lower and the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.3346 can provide some protection against a $1.3303-$1.3302

return. In the interim, look to $1.3455-$1.3465 and then the congested

$1.3490-$1.3495 area for resistance.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y111.60-Y111.68 Likely To Provide Next Test To This Rise

*RES 4: Y112.31 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y112.03/06 Dec 15, Jan 2 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: Y111.68 2 month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*PRICE: Y111.12 @1540GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.80/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.61 May 18 low

*SUP 3: Y110.35 Hourly highs/lows May 16-17

*SUP 4: Y110.04 May 2 high, May 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to benefit from finding support earlier in the month,

from the 2 month bull channel base, at Y109.83 by time today. Having straddled

the upper 1% volatility band at Y111.21 today, the next upside targets range

between the Jan 18 high at Y111.48 and the channel top at Y111.68. Sandwiched in

between lies the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y111.60. Support comes from above

Y110.90-Y110.80 and then Friday's Y110.61 low.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.13 Again Stands In The Way Of Further Gains

*RES 4: Y131.72 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y131.36/38 50% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23, May 14 high

*RES 2: Y131.13 May 18 high

*RES 1: Y131.01 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y130.66 @1545GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.15/25 61.8% of Y129.53-Y131.13, May 18 low

*SUP 3: Y129.91 76.4% Fibo of Y129.53-Y131.13

*SUP 4: Y129.53 May 16 low, 2 year bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* After flirting with the base of the 2 year bull channel over the

last couple of weeks, has begun to slightly pull away, is at Y129.53 this week.

Next test to the latest rise comes again from last Friday's Y131.13 high. Need

back above here before we are back on track to retest the 50% Fibo retrace level

and May 14 high between Y131.36-Y131.38. Meanwhile, support from Y130.40

protects against another push lower, Y130.25-Y129.91 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Still Struggling To Retain Any Sense Of Direction

*RES 4: Stg0.8835 May 10 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8818 May 15 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8789/92 May 11, May 14 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8783 May 16 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8767 @1548GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724 May 18 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8713 May 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8642

*SUP 4: Stg0.8678/81 1% volatility band, Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8713 toward the end of last week. Once

again keeping us from a test to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at the slightly

lower Stg0.8705 level. The subsequent recovery, now sees earlier support from

Stg0.8724 as protecting against a downside return. Meanwhile, the May 16 high at

Stg0.8783 is currently the bar to a Stg0.8789-Stg0.8792 rise, where bigger

questions are asked of this rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: Further Recovery Requires Sustained $0.7565-$0.7567 Break

*RES 4: $0.7641 1.618 swing of $0.7567-$0.7447

*RES 3: $0.7602/12 Equality rise target, 50% $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 2: $0.7583 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7567/70 May 11, intraday highs

*PRICE: $0.7564 @1555GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7520 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7503 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $0.7477/88 Hourly base may 16, May 18 low

*SUP 4: $0.7447 May 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally today has seen a fresh challenge to the key $0.7565-$0.7567

area. A high of $0.7570 before slipping slightly. It is through here that is

needed before any real chance of a recovery will appear and with it a higher

correction of the losses sustained since the Apr 19 high at 0.7813. Meanwhile,

while capped here, then look to $0.7520 and then the day's $0.7503 low for

support and protection against a $0.7488-$0.7477 return.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Slipping Back After Failure To Test $1.2925-$1.2935 

*RES 4: $1.2998 May 8 high

*RES 3: $1.2967 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2925/35 May 15 high, 76.4% of $1.2998-$1.2729

*RES 1: $1.2891/11 Intraday high, May 18 high

*PRICE: $1.2836 @1600GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2820 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2791 May 18 low

*SUP 3: $1.2750 May 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.2729 May 11 low

*COMMENTARY* Rallies over the last week or so have been held back by

$1.2925-$1.2935 resistance. It is through the latter that will be required

before the upside will find any renewed strength and for a further

$1.2967-$1.2998 rise. Meanwhile, there is interim resistance from between

$1.2891-$1.2911 to deal with first. Support now from $1.2820 and then Friday's

$1.2791 low, keeps the downside out of trouble for now.

GOLD TECHS: Breaking Below Key $1286.6-$1286.1 Support

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1301.7 May 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1298.9 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1289.4 @1605GMT

*SUP 1: $1282.2 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1261.5 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1366.2-$1301.7

*SUP 4: $1252.8 Dec 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Losing support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area today. This the

rising support line from the December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not

much to stop an eventual $1267.2, perhaps a lower $1261.5 fall. In the meantime,

$1298.9 currently provides initial resistance of note, ahead of the May 1 low at

$1301.7. Will need back above here for near term respite.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]