MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1717-$1.1709 Holds, Now $1.1854-$1.1856 Becomes Key

*RES 4: $1.1930/39 76.4% of $1.1996-$1.1717, May 15 high

*RES 3: $1.1889 61.8% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1717

*RES 2: $1.1854/56 May 16 high, 50% of $1.1996-$1.1717

*RES 1: $1.1822/24 May 18 high, 38.2% of $1.1996-$1.1717

*PRICE: $1.1824 @0820GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1757/70 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1726/43 1% volatility band, hourly base May 21

*SUP 3: $1.1713/17 Nov 21, Dec 12 & May 21 lows

*SUP 4: $1.1709 38.2% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*COMMENTARY* Found support on Monday from the top of the anticipated

$1.1717-$1.1709 area. Today's move above $1.1790-$1.1795 offered initial

encouragement, now trying to sustain a break of $1.1822-$1.1824. Through here

and $1.1854-$1.1856 then becomes important, as it also includes the falling

resistance line from the mid April highs. Support $1.1770-$1.1757, currently

backed up by $1.1743 and the lower 1% volatility band at $1.1726.

CABLE TECHS: Recovering After Hold Above $1.3386-$1.3346 Support Zone

*RES 4: $1.3570 May 17 high

*RES 3: $1.3557 2 week bear channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.3528 May 18 high, 76.4% of $1.3570-$1.3391

*RES 1: $1.3490/00 Hourly congestion area May 17-18

*PRICE: $1.3474 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3435/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3386/91 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377, May 21 low

*SUP 3: $1.3375/77 1% vol band, 1.618 swing of $1.3451-$1.3570

*SUP 4: $1.3346 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* After a couple of weeks of waiting, on Monday we finally got the

test to the top of the next region of support between $1.3386-$1.3375. If there

was to be a case for an intermediate base, then $1.3386-$1.3346 fitted the bill.

The subsequent recovery is encouraging but will need to sustain a break through

$1.3474-$1.3500 next, with $1.3528 considered key higher. As a result, nearest

support moves up to $1.3440-$1.3435.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  'Shooting Star' Candle Close Raises Near Term Concerns

*RES 4: Y112.03/06 Dec 15, Jan 2 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: Y111.81 2 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 1: Y111.40/48 May 21 high, 1% vol band, Jan 18 high

*PRICE: Y110.98 @0846GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.61 May 18 low

*SUP 3: Y110.35 Hourly highs/lows May 16-17

*SUP 4: Y110.04 May 2 high, May 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Tried to break through the upper 1% volatility band on Monday but

frustrated by resistance from Y111.40, just ahead of the Jan 18 high at Y111.48.

The subsequent 'shooting star' close on the daily chart raises some concerns, so

eyes initially on Y110.80-Y110.61 support. Loss of the latter would weaken

immediate upside argument and put pressure back on Y110.35. Main support still

from 2 month bull channel at Y109.95. Above Y111.48 and Y111.60-Y111.81 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Will Be Measured Against Y131.36-Y131.38 Reaction

*RES 4: Y132.48 76.4% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 3: Y131.95 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y131.86 61.8% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 1: Y131.36/38 50% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23, May 14 high

*PRICE: Y131.09 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.50/61 Hourly base May 21, intraday low

*SUP 3: Y130.24 May 18 low

*SUP 4: Y129.95 Initial recovery high May 16, now support

*COMMENTARY* After flirting with the base of the 2 year bull channel over the

last couple of weeks, has begun to pull away, this is at Y129.53 this week. Have

moved above Y131.13 today, which puts us back on track to retest the 50% Fibo

retrace level and May 14 high between Y131.36-Y131.38. Through the latter would

add more credence to this rise. Meanwhile, support from between Y130.80-Y130.50

protects against another push lower, Y130.24-Y129.95 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Still Struggling To Retain Any Sense Of Direction

*RES 4: Stg0.8842 May 4 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8835 May 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8814/18 76.4% of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8713, May 15 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8789/92 May 11, May 14 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8774 @0907GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/30 May 18 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8713 May 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 1% volatility band, Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8713 toward the end of last week. Once

again keeping us from a test to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at the slightly

lower Stg0.8705 level. The subsequent recovery, now sees earlier support from

Stg0.8730-Stg0.8724 as protecting against a downside return. Meanwhile, having

moved through the May 16 high at Stg0.8783, the focus returns to

Stg0.8789-Stg0.8792, where bigger questions are asked of this rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Meets Resistance Next From $0.7605-$0.7612

*RES 4: $0.7676 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7660 61.8% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 2: $0.7641 1.618 swing of $0.7567-$0.7447

*RES 1: $0.7605/12 1% volatility band, 50% $0.7813-$0.7412

*PRICE: $0.7600 @0920GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7565 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7548 May 17 high, now support

*SUP 3: $0.7534 Initial rally high May 21, now support

*SUP 4: $0.7515 Congestion area May 17-21

*COMMENTARY* Have now seen a rally through $0.7570 resistance. This increases

the chance of seeing a decent correction, initially of losses sustained since

the Apr 19 high at 0.7813. Next up is $0.7605-$0.7612, which area also includes

the upper 1% volatility band today. While capped around here, then look to

$0.7565-$0.7548 for initial support, $0.7534-$0.7515 below. Loss of the latter

would concern. $0.7641-$0.7660 next on sustained move through $0.7612.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Sliding Back Toward Base Of Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.2891/11 May 21, May 18 highs

*RES 3: $1.2875/85 Hourly congestion area May 18-21

*RES 2: $1.2854/56 Hourly basing May 21, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2800/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2762 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2750 May 17 low

*SUP 2: $1.2729/35 May 11 low, hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.2708 61.8% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*SUP 4: $1.2683 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Rallies over the last week or so have been held back by

$1.2925-$1.2935 resistance. It is through the latter that will be required

before the upside will find any renewed strength. Meanwhile, $1.2891-$1.2911 has

proved tough and seen a move back below Friday's $1.2791 low. Now looking at

$1.2750-$1.2729 for support, else $1.2708-$1.2683 comes back into focus.

Resistance from between $1.2800-$1.2810 keeps immediate recovery hopes in check.

GOLD TECHS: Break Below Key $1286.6-$1286.1 Support Is A Concern

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1301.7 May 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1298.9 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1294.3 @0948GMT

*SUP 1: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1261.5 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1366.2-$1301.7

*SUP 4: $1252.8 Dec 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area on Monday which

raises concerns. This the rising support line from the December 2016 lows and

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be

sustained, then there is not much to stop an eventual $1267.2, perhaps a lower

$1261.5 fall. In the meantime, $1298.9 currently provides initial resistance,

ahead of the May 1 low at $1301.7. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]