MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Renewed Pressure Can See A $1.1647-$1.1634 Fall Next

*RES 4: $1.1830 May 22 high

*RES 3: $1.1806 6 week falling resistance line

*RES 2: $1.1794 Hourly recovery high May 22

*RES 1: $1.1755/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1728 @0745GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1676 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1.1647 1.618 swing of $1.1717-$1.1830

*SUP 3: $1.1634 1.618x $1.1838-$1.1717 from $1.1830

*SUP 4: $1.1592 Max 5th wave target in fall from $1.2477

*COMMENTARY* Lower again Wednesday, this time below $1.1717-$1.1709 support and

also put the 1% volatility band, at $1.1691 by time today, under pressure. A

maintained break below here will likely reach the swing target at $1.1647 next,

perhaps the projection target at $1.1634. Currently reducing some near term

oversold conditions, resistance from $1.1755-$1.1770 and then $1.1794. The six

week falling resistance line and Tuesday's $1.1830 high are tougher above.

CABLE TECHS: Some Respite After Decline Retests The Mid December Lows

*RES 4: $1.3528 May 18 high

*RES 3: $1.3487/92 May 4 low, May 22 high 

*RES 2: $1.3443/48 May 23 high, 76.4% of $1.3492-$1.3305  

*RES 1: $1.3414/21 Initial low May 22, 61.8% $1.3492-$1.3305

*PRICE: $1.3398 @0853GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3330/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3302/05 Dec 15, Dec 12 and May 23 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3269 Aug 3 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3221/33 Nov 28 low, 1.618 swing $1.3305-$1.3421

*COMMENTARY* Failure to deal with $1.3490-$1.3500 resistance on Tuesday put the

downside under pressure again. With the subsequent loss of $1.3386 support,

Wednesday also saw the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3346 and the swing target

at $1.3329 give way. This sees the mid December lows at $1.3303-$1.3302 as next

protection lower. Resistance from Tuesday's $1.3391 low has been broken but

$1.3414-$1.3448 a tougher area above. Loss of $1.3340-$1.3330 would concern.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Fall Holding Above Next Key Support From Y109.15

*RES 4: Y110.90 Hourly congestion May 22

*RES 3: Y110.61 May 18 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y110.20/33 Base 2 month bull channel, hourly high 

*RES 1: Y110.00/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.63 @0810GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.33 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y109.15 May 11 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y108.81 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y111.40

*SUP 4: Y108.65 May 4 low

*COMMENTARY* The appearance of the 'shooting star' candle close on the daily

chart on Monday was the warning and precursor to the subsequent decline, which

has reached Y109.33 today. The fall has lost support from the 2 month bull

channel base at Y110.20 and also the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y109.68. The

next real support of note comes from Y109.15, where bigger questions are asked

of direction. Y110.00-Y110.33 provides resistance against any near term bounce.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Swing Target At Y127.90 Protecting Downside At Present

*RES 4: Y130.05 Hourly recovery high May 23

*RES 3: Y129.54 2 year bull channel base, now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.23 May 8 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y128.80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.60 @0822GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.90/97 1.618 swing Y129.23-Y131.38, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y127.56/62 Aug 18 low, 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y127.12 Equality fall from Y131.38 to Y133.49-Y129.23

*SUP 4: Y126.18 50% Fibo of Y114.85-Y137.51

*COMMENTARY* Unable to move through Y131.36-Y131.38 resistance on Tuesday and

has subsequently paid the price. The resultant fall has lost support from the 2

year bull channel base at Y129.54 and also the key Y129.23-Y128.85 area. A low

of Y127.97 so far, as we head into near term oversold territory. In this regard,

look to Y128.80-Y129.23 for initial resistance, that Y129.54 above. Below

Y127.90 and next targets are set between Y127.56 and Y127.12.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Marooned In Midst Of Six Month Channel

*RES 4: Stg0.8842 May 4 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8835 May 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8814/18 76.4% of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8713, May 15 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8795/97 May 11 low, May 23 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8765 @0826GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/39 May 18, May 23 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8713 May 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8678/81 1% volatility band, Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8713 toward the end of last week. Once

again keeping us from a test to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at the slightly

lower Stg0.8705 level. The subsequent recovery, now sees earlier support from

Stg0.8730-Stg0.8724 as protecting against a downside return. Meanwhile, having

moved through the May 16 high at Stg0.8783, the focus returns to the

Stg0.8795-Stg0.8797 area, where better questions are asked of this rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7606-$0.7612 Still The Key To Direction Here

*RES 4: $0.7660 61.8% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7641/43 1.618 swing $0.7567-$0.7447, Mar 29 low

*RES 2: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 1% vol, 50% $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 1: $0.7583 May 23 high

*PRICE: $0.7562 @0832GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7515/23 Congestion area May 17-21, May 23 low

*SUP 2: $0.7503 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $0.7485/88 76.4% of $0.7447-$0.7606, May 18 low

*SUP 4: $0.7462 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's rally failed to deal with resistance from the upper 1%

volatility band, shy of the 50% Fibo retrace level at $0.7612. A small 'Doji'

candle close on Tuesday the initial warning and has seen a setback into

$0.7525-$0.7515 support. This now seen as the protection against a further

$0.7503-$0.7485 fall. Resistance in the meantime now comes from Wednesday's

$0.7583 high, ahead of that $0.7606-$0.7612 area again.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continues To Meander Within Two Week Range

*RES 4: $1.2952 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2925/35 May 15 high, 76.4% of $1.2998-$1.2729

*RES 2: $1.2911/16 May 18, May 23 highs

*RES 1: $1.2890/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2854 @0838GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2835 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2812 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2780 Initial recovery high May 22, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2743 May 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Rallies over the last week or so have been held back by

$1.2925-$1.2935 resistance. It is through the latter that is still required

before the upside will find the basis for any renewed strength. Meanwhile,

congested resistance between $1.2890-1.2916 still stands in the way of near term

gains. As a result, support rises to $1.2835 and then Wednesday's $1.2812 low.

Loss here would concern again.

GOLD TECHS: $1298.9-$1301.7 Break Needed For Near Term Respite

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1301.7 May 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1298.9 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1297.2 @0841GMT

*SUP 1: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1261.5 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1366.2-$1301.7

*SUP 4: $1252.8 Dec 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area on Monday which

raises concerns. This the rising support line from the December 2016 lows and

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be

sustained, then there is not much to stop an eventual $1267.2, perhaps a lower

$1261.5 fall. In the meantime, $1298.9 currently provides initial resistance,

ahead of the May 1 low at $1301.7. Back above the latter would help.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]