MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Monday's Rise Falls Short Of Key $1.1754 Resistance 

*RES 4: $1.1810 61.8% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510

*RES 3: $1.1787/92 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.1725-$1.1617

*RES 2: $1.1745/54 Jun 4 high, 76.4% of $1.1830-$1.1510

*RES 1: $1.1705/17 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1672 @1550GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1653/54 Intraday low, hourly base Jun 1

*SUP 2: $1.1641/49 May 31 low, equality fall from $1.1717

*SUP 3: $1.1615/17 Hourly congestion May 28-30, Jun 1 low 

*SUP 4: $1.1590/94 Recovery high May 29, hourly base May 30

*COMMENTARY* Having broken above $1.1725 earlier in the day, Monday's rally

failed just below the next key resistance level at $1.1754. All is not lost

however, especially in the near term while support from between $1.1649-$1.1641

is able to contain any setbacks. Resistance now from $1.1705-$1.1717 ahead of

$1.1745-$1.1754 again. Higher and $1.1792_1.1810 next above. Below $1.1641 will

disappoint and put Friday's $1.1617 low back under pressure.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3460 Potential If $1.3399-$1.3422 Can Be Overcome

*RES 4: $1.3481/87 23.6% Fibo of $1.4377-$1.3204, May 4 low

*RES 3: $1.3460 May 10 low, 61.8% of $1.3618-$1.3204, 1% vol

*RES 2: $1.3411/22 50% of $1.3618-$1.3204, May 24 high

*RES 1: $1.3399 Jun 4 high

*PRICE: $1.3352 @1554GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3330/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3315 Hourly congestion Jun 4-5

*SUP 3: $1.3283/95 Hourly low Jun 1, Jun 4 low

*SUP 4: $1.3254 Jun 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Was slow to take up the opportunity given the break above $1.3370

yesterday. A high of $1.3399 before giving back a lot of ground, finally coming

to rest at $1.3295, just above the next support of note at $1.3283. Has since

recovered again, $1.3399-$1.3422 now becoming the barrier to what looks the next

likely target area around $1.3460. As a result, support currently rises to

$1.3335-$1.3315, only back below the latter will caution at present.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Eyes On Y109.50-Y109.37 Support For Directional Clues

*RES 4: Y111.08 May 18 high

*RES 3: Y110.62 76.4% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11

*RES 2: Y110.44 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y110.00/14 Hourly resistance, 61.8% of Y111.40-Y108.11

*PRICE: Y109.64 @1555GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.37 Jun 4 low

*SUP 3: Y109.08 May 30 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y108.55 Hourly basing area May 30-31

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has now stretched above Y109.75-Y109.83 resistance,

moving towards the next Fibo retrace of note, the 61.8% at Y110.14. Overbought

in the near term, so eyes are on Y109.50-Y109.37 support. A loss of the latter

would caution, putting pressure back on the May 30 high at Y109.08. Upside

momentum would take a hit on a move below here, Y108.55-Y108.39 then next

support lower. Above Y110.14 and the upper 1% volatility band is at Y110.44.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Faltering Below Y128.80-Y128.90 Resistance

*RES 4: Y129.78 76.4% Fibo of 131.38-124.62

*RES 3: Y129.23 May 8 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y128.80/90 61.8% Fibo of 131.38-124.62, 1% vol band 

*RES 1: Y128.70 Jun 4 high

*PRICE: Y127.96 @1557GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.80/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.58 Hourly base Jun 1

*SUP 3: Y127.13/18 Jun 1 low, hourly low Jun 1

*SUP 4: Y126.81 Hourly base May 31 

*COMMENTARY* Continued to regain ground, following last week's exhaustion spike

to the base of the 4 month bear channel. The next resistance to note is from the

61.8% Fibo retrace of the Y131.38-Y124.62 fall, at Y128.80 and the 1% volatility

band at Y128.90. This ahead of the May 8 low at Y129.23. As a consequence,

support also rises, Y127.90-Y127.80 initially, Y127.58 thereafter, with the

Y127.18-Y127.13 area remaining of more importance below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8810 Proves The Bar To Further Recovery Prospects

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8840/42 1% volatility band, May 4 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8809/10 Jun 1, May 8 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8790 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8740 @1558GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/28 Jun 1 low, initial recovery May 29

*SUP 2: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8673/81 76.4% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842, Apr 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8664 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The game of snakes and ladders continues, the Stg0.8810-Stg0.8697

range having been fully exploited over the last week or so, most latterly

failing at Stg0.8809. This basically a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the

Stg0.8842-Stg0.8697 fall, seen since the beginning of May. Will need through

here, before the chance of a Stg0.8840-Stg0.8842 return. Support within the

range at Stg0.8728-Stg0.8724, this dealt with Friday's setback.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Retests Base Of 30 Month Support Line 

*RES 4: $0.7774 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7718/22 76.4% of $0.7813-$0.7412, 2% vol band

*RES 2: $0.7690 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412

*RES 1: $0.7666/67 Base 30 month support line, Jun 4 high

*PRICE: $0.7606 @1600GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7594 May 31 high, now support

*SUP 2: $0.7560/73 Hourly base Jun 1, Jun 1 high

*SUP 3: $0.7540 Hourly congestion area May 23-28

*SUP 4: $0.7514 Jun 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has broken above the 2018 falling resistance at $0.7632-$0.7618,

depending on whether you look at the daily or weekly chart. But so far unable to

deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band and then the base of the

previously broken 30 month support line at $0.7666. Further clearance through

here will encourage, $0.7690-$0.7718 then next targets higher. Support currently

from above 0.7594, loss would pressure $0.7573-$0.7560.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Still Troubled By 2 1/2 Year Resistance Line

*RES 4: $1.3125 Mar 19 high

*RES 3: $1.3074 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, intraday high

*RES 1: $1.3040/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3003 @1610GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2970/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2946 Initial recovery high Jun 4, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2914 Intraday low

*SUP 4: $1.2895/00 Hourly recovery high May 30, Jun 4 low

*COMMENTARY* Having found support from $1.2818 last Thursday, then proceeded to

correct the previous fall from $1.3047 by just over 76.4%, with Friday's spike

high to $1.3008. The subsequent pullback has since held support above

$1.2895-$1.2875, providing the springboard for today's rally through

$1.3008-$1.3047. Has reached $1.3067 so far, basically a test to the 2 1/2 year

resistance line. Support from $1.2975-$1.2946 should hold any setbacks now.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Fails To Deal With 9 Week Falling Resistance Line

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high

*RES 1: $1296.5 9 week falling resistance line

*PRICE: $1296.2 @1615GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, unable to maintain a break through

the 9 week falling resistance line, so eyes back on $1287.8-$1282.2 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]