MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Back In Trouble, Fallout From $1.1721 Swift

*RES 4: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high

*RES 3: $1.1672 Jun 27 high

*RES 2: $1.1635 Jun 26 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1590/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1564 @0750GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1527 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.1497/08 1% volatility band, Jun 21 low

*SUP 3: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*SUP 4: $1.1376/77 Swing $1.1508-$1.1721, equality fall target

*COMMENTARY* The fallout since reaching $1.1721 on Tuesday has been swift,

revealing the underlying downtrend. The fall has however been held at $1.1527 so

far, leaving the key $1.1508-$1.1497 area untouched as yet. That said,

$1.1590-$1.1635 provides a strong near term resistance area and in fact it would

take back above $1.1672 for things to really improve. Below $1.1497 and the 50%

Fibo at $1.1448 next, ahead of dual $1.1377-$1.1376 support.

CABLE TECHS: Fresh Fall As Lower 1% Volatility Band Gets Tested

*RES 4: $1.3221 Jun 25 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3192 Jun 26 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3167/73 Hourly highs Jun 27

*RES 1: $1.3125/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3087 @0815GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3066/76 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.3049 7 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1.3027 Oct 6 low

*SUP 4: $1.2970 1.618 swing of $1.3102-$1.3315

*COMMENTARY* All of the recovery since the month's earlier $1.3102 base has now

been whittled away, as we test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band

today. Any lower and the 7 week bear channel at $1.3049 and the Oct 6 low at

$1.3027 can slow the fall. Beneath here and the swing target at $1.2970 and the

equality fall target at $1.2944 are next likely support. Resistance

$1.3125-$1.3173 but currently back above $1.3192 needed for any impact.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Facing Y110.49-Y110.81 Resistance

*RES 4: Y111.25/40 1% volatility band, May 21 high

*RES 3: Y110.91 Jun 15 high

*RES 2: Y110.76/81 Jun 21 high, 1.618 swing Y110.49-Y109.97

*RES 1: Y110.49 Jun 27 high

*PRICE: Y110.39 @0826GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.90/97 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.69 Jun 27 low

*SUP 3: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows

*SUP 4: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout since the Jun 15 high at Y110.91 found a base at

Y109.37 and has been trying to improve ever since. Still has resistance from

between Y110.49-Y110.81 to scale, before that Y110.91 comes into view again. In

the interim, support comes from between Y109.97-Y109.69 with only back below the

latter spoiling recent upward momentum and pressure back on Y109.37-Y109.18.

Directly through Y110.91 and Y111.25-Y111.40 bars the way to Y111.86.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fresh Fall Exposes Y127.09-Y126.99 Support

*RES 4: Y128.85/94 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62

*RES 3: Y128.46 Jun 26 high

*RES 2: Y128.20 Congestion area Jun 25-Jun 27

*RES 1: Y127.80 Jun 26 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y127.38 @0840GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.99/09 Jun 21, Jun 20 lows

*SUP 2: Y126.62/64 1% volatility band, Jun 19 low

*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.36

*SUP 4: Y125.27/34 1.618 swing Y126.64-Y128.85, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* This week saw another attempt to reach the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at Y128.94, attaining a high of Y128.85 before retreating on the back of some

overbought hourly conditions. In this respect, support from Y127.65-Y127.28 has

since been overcome leaving the main downside protection between Y127.09-Y126.99

exposed. Loss would put Y126.64 back under pressure. Resistance Y127.80-Y128.20

but Y128.46 currently provides a stiffer test higher.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Attempting Challenge To Recent Consolidation Highs

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8876 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8847 1.618 swing of Stg0.8828-Stg0.8797

*RES 1: Stg0.8842 May 4 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8830 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8790/97 Hourly support, Jun 27 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8760 Congestion area Jun 18-22

*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Hourly basing area Jun 15-18

*SUP 4: Stg0.8717/26 Jun 15, Jun 21 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to chip away at recent highs in an effort to once

again reach and attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which has capped

rallies over the last couple of months. Daily studies remain supportive, so

while Stg0.8797-Stg0.8790 support holds, there is the chance for another

challenge. Directly through Stg0.8842, has resistance from the recent swing

target at Stg0.8847, in the way of further Stg0.8876-Stg0.8886 gains.

AUSSIE TECHS: Downside Back Under Pressure As Long Term Fibo Support Wavers

*RES 4: $0.7423 Jun 26 high

*RES 3: $0.7407 Jun 27 high

*RES 2: $0.7385/90 Hourly congestion area Jun 26-27

*RES 1: $0.7362 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7344 @0908GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7300/16 Hourly support, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7345-$0.7457

*SUP 3: $0.7252 Max 5th wave target in fall from $0.7677

*SUP 4: $0.7235 2018 bear channel base Proj'n, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Last week's $0.7347-$0.7345 lows have given way now and the longer

term 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7327, has had its cage rattled. A low of

$0.7323 on Wednesday, as we approach the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7316,

being the protection against a further $0.7300-$0.7252 fall. Meanwhile, $0.7362

provides immediate resistance but $0.7385-$0.7407 is tougher higher.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Halted At Edge Of $1.3385-$1.3404 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3462 1.618 swing of $1.3385-$1.3261

*RES 3: $1.3404 Equality rise from $1.2528 to $1.2249-$1.3125

*RES 2: $1.3385/87 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061, Jun 27 high

*RES 1: $1.3360/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3340 @0916GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3300/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3261/72 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3210 Jun 15 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3159 Jun 18 low

*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support this month has continued to produce

a significant recovery, which has broken above the top of the 9 month bull

channel and also the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348. It has however again found the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385 a significant barrier. This and the equality

rise target at $1.3404 are the primary contenders to put a halt to this rise, at

least for the time being. Support from  1.3272-1.3261, loss here would caution.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Continues, $1248.1 Now Protects Against $1236.6 Return 

*RES 4: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1276.6 Jun 20 high

*RES 2: $1272.7 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1250.2 @0928GMT

*SUP 1: $1248.1 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which

raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the December

2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.

Below and with the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the risk is for a test

to the 3 month channel base at $1248.1. Resistance $1261.2-$1272.7 keeps focus

lower. The Dec 12 low at $1236.6 is next on the agenda below $1248.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]