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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Back In Trouble, Fallout From $1.1721 Swift
*RES 4: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high
*RES 3: $1.1672 Jun 27 high
*RES 2: $1.1635 Jun 26 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1590/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1564 @0750GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1527 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.1497/08 1% volatility band, Jun 21 low
*SUP 3: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556
*SUP 4: $1.1376/77 Swing $1.1508-$1.1721, equality fall target
*COMMENTARY* The fallout since reaching $1.1721 on Tuesday has been swift,
revealing the underlying downtrend. The fall has however been held at $1.1527 so
far, leaving the key $1.1508-$1.1497 area untouched as yet. That said,
$1.1590-$1.1635 provides a strong near term resistance area and in fact it would
take back above $1.1672 for things to really improve. Below $1.1497 and the 50%
Fibo at $1.1448 next, ahead of dual $1.1377-$1.1376 support.
CABLE TECHS: Fresh Fall As Lower 1% Volatility Band Gets Tested
*RES 4: $1.3221 Jun 25 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.3192 Jun 26 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3167/73 Hourly highs Jun 27
*RES 1: $1.3125/35 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3087 @0815GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3066/76 Intraday low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $1.3049 7 week bear channel base projection
*SUP 3: $1.3027 Oct 6 low
*SUP 4: $1.2970 1.618 swing of $1.3102-$1.3315
*COMMENTARY* All of the recovery since the month's earlier $1.3102 base has now
been whittled away, as we test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band
today. Any lower and the 7 week bear channel at $1.3049 and the Oct 6 low at
$1.3027 can slow the fall. Beneath here and the swing target at $1.2970 and the
equality fall target at $1.2944 are next likely support. Resistance
$1.3125-$1.3173 but currently back above $1.3192 needed for any impact.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Facing Y110.49-Y110.81 Resistance
*RES 4: Y111.25/40 1% volatility band, May 21 high
*RES 3: Y110.91 Jun 15 high
*RES 2: Y110.76/81 Jun 21 high, 1.618 swing Y110.49-Y109.97
*RES 1: Y110.49 Jun 27 high
*PRICE: Y110.39 @0826GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.90/97 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y109.69 Jun 27 low
*SUP 3: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows
*SUP 4: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low
*COMMENTARY* The fallout since the Jun 15 high at Y110.91 found a base at
Y109.37 and has been trying to improve ever since. Still has resistance from
between Y110.49-Y110.81 to scale, before that Y110.91 comes into view again. In
the interim, support comes from between Y109.97-Y109.69 with only back below the
latter spoiling recent upward momentum and pressure back on Y109.37-Y109.18.
Directly through Y110.91 and Y111.25-Y111.40 bars the way to Y111.86.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Fresh Fall Exposes Y127.09-Y126.99 Support
*RES 4: Y128.85/94 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62
*RES 3: Y128.46 Jun 26 high
*RES 2: Y128.20 Congestion area Jun 25-Jun 27
*RES 1: Y127.80 Jun 26 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Y127.38 @0840GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.99/09 Jun 21, Jun 20 lows
*SUP 2: Y126.62/64 1% volatility band, Jun 19 low
*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.36
*SUP 4: Y125.27/34 1.618 swing Y126.64-Y128.85, 2% vol band
*COMMENTARY* This week saw another attempt to reach the 61.8% Fibo retrace level
at Y128.94, attaining a high of Y128.85 before retreating on the back of some
overbought hourly conditions. In this respect, support from Y127.65-Y127.28 has
since been overcome leaving the main downside protection between Y127.09-Y126.99
exposed. Loss would put Y126.64 back under pressure. Resistance Y127.80-Y128.20
but Y128.46 currently provides a stiffer test higher.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Attempting Challenge To Recent Consolidation Highs
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8876 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8847 1.618 swing of Stg0.8828-Stg0.8797
*RES 1: Stg0.8842 May 4 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8830 @0845GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8790/97 Hourly support, Jun 27 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8760 Congestion area Jun 18-22
*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Hourly basing area Jun 15-18
*SUP 4: Stg0.8717/26 Jun 15, Jun 21 lows
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to chip away at recent highs in an effort to once
again reach and attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which has capped
rallies over the last couple of months. Daily studies remain supportive, so
while Stg0.8797-Stg0.8790 support holds, there is the chance for another
challenge. Directly through Stg0.8842, has resistance from the recent swing
target at Stg0.8847, in the way of further Stg0.8876-Stg0.8886 gains.
AUSSIE TECHS: Downside Back Under Pressure As Long Term Fibo Support Wavers
*RES 4: $0.7423 Jun 26 high
*RES 3: $0.7407 Jun 27 high
*RES 2: $0.7385/90 Hourly congestion area Jun 26-27
*RES 1: $0.7362 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7344 @0908GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7300/16 Hourly support, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7345-$0.7457
*SUP 3: $0.7252 Max 5th wave target in fall from $0.7677
*SUP 4: $0.7235 2018 bear channel base Proj'n, 2% vol band
*COMMENTARY* Last week's $0.7347-$0.7345 lows have given way now and the longer
term 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7327, has had its cage rattled. A low of
$0.7323 on Wednesday, as we approach the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7316,
being the protection against a further $0.7300-$0.7252 fall. Meanwhile, $0.7362
provides immediate resistance but $0.7385-$0.7407 is tougher higher.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Halted At Edge Of $1.3385-$1.3404 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.3462 1.618 swing of $1.3385-$1.3261
*RES 3: $1.3404 Equality rise from $1.2528 to $1.2249-$1.3125
*RES 2: $1.3385/87 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061, Jun 27 high
*RES 1: $1.3360/70 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3340 @0916GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3300/10 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3261/72 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows
*SUP 3: $1.3210 Jun 15 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.3159 Jun 18 low
*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support this month has continued to produce
a significant recovery, which has broken above the top of the 9 month bull
channel and also the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348. It has however again found the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385 a significant barrier. This and the equality
rise target at $1.3404 are the primary contenders to put a halt to this rise, at
least for the time being. Support from 1.3272-1.3261, loss here would caution.
GOLD TECHS: Decline Continues, $1248.1 Now Protects Against $1236.6 Return
*RES 4: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1276.6 Jun 20 high
*RES 2: $1272.7 Jun 22 high
*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1250.2 @0928GMT
*SUP 1: $1248.1 3 month bear channel base projection
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2
*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which
raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the December
2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.
Below and with the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the risk is for a test
to the 3 month channel base at $1248.1. Resistance $1261.2-$1272.7 keeps focus
lower. The Dec 12 low at $1236.6 is next on the agenda below $1248.1.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.