MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1672-$1.1675 Becomes Pivotal To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: $1.1771 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508

*RES 3: $1.1733 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high

*RES 1: $1.1672/75 Jun 27 high, 76.4% of $1.1721-$1.1527

*PRICE: $1.1619 @0902GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1601 Jun 28 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.1551 Hourly basing area Jun 28

*SUP 3: $1.1527 Jun 28 low

*SUP 4: $1.1501/08 1% volatility band, Jun 21 low

*COMMENTARY* Thursday's fall from the week's $1.1721 high, was held at $1.1527,

keeping the month's previous $1.1508 low out of trouble for the time being.

Subsequently, having exceeded $1.1590-$1.1600 resistance, the recovery has grown

in pace, reaching towards the near term pivot level at $1.1675. Will need to go

on and reclaim levels above here, if there is to be a complete turnaround in

fortunes. Meanwhile, $1.1601 provides support against a $1.1551-$1.1527 return.

CABLE TECHS: Thursday's Fall Held By 7 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.3315 Jun 22 high

*RES 3: $1.3252 76.4% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050

*RES 2: $1.3214/21 61.8% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050, Jun 25 low

*RES 1: $1.3192 Jun 26 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3167 @0918GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3129 Initial intraday rally high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.3100/10 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.3080/85 Hourly highs/lows Jun 28

*SUP 4: $1.3042/50 7 week bear channel base, Jun 28 low

*COMMENTARY* All of the recovery since the month's earlier $1.3102 base was

whittled away on Thursday, as the lower 1% volatility band and the 7 week bear

channel base came under pressure. A low of $1.3050, before regaining some ground

and an initial $1.3129 recovery. Subsequent move above the latter today, now has

sights on $1.3192-$1.3221 next. Support as a result, climbs to $1.3129-$1.3080.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.81-Y110.91 Resistance The Bar To Higher Recovery

*RES 4: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y111.27/40 1% volatility band, May 21 highh

*RES 2: Y110.91 Jun 15 high

*RES 1: Y110.76/81 Jun 21 high, 1.618 swing Y110.49-Y109.97

*PRICE: Y110.67 @0824GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.20/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.92/97 Hourly base Jun 27, Jun 28 low 

*SUP 3: Y109.69 Jun 27 low

*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows

*COMMENTARY* The fallout since the Jun 15 high at Y110.91 found a base at

Y109.37 and has been trying to improve ever since. Following this week's

recovery, still has resistance from Y110.81 and that Y110.91 to scale, before

the way becomes  clear for a higher Y111.27-Y111.86 rise. The latter the swing

target of that Y110.91-Y109.37 drop. Support meanwhile comes from

Y110.25-Y110.20 initially, loss would spark a correction of this week's gains.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Today's Rise Has Y129.25-Y129.48 As Next Resistance

*RES 4: Y130.10 5 month bear channel top 

*RES 3: Y129.91 1.618 swing of Y128.85-Y127.14

*RES 2: Y129.48 76.4% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62

*RES 1: Y129.25/35 1% volatility band, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.71 @0844GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.25/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.93/95 Jun 28 high, initial intraday high

*SUP 3: Y127.61 Initial high Jun 28, now support

*SUP 4: Y127.14 Jun 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Thursday's fall held at Y127.14, leaving the key Y127.09-Y126.99

support area untouched for the time being. The subsequent recovery has been

swift, this morning breaking through former Y127.93 highs to eclipse

Y128.46-Y128.94 resistance. Next barrier is anticipated to come from between

Y129.25-Y129.48, requiring above the latter, before any further impetus will

follow for a Y129.91-Y130.10 rise. In the interim, Y128.35-Y128.25 is support.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Held By 76.4% Fibo Retrace And 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8922 8 month bear channel top

*RES 2: Stg0.8911 1.618 swing of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*RES 1: Stg0.8886/90 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, 1% vol band

*PRICE: Stg0.8842 @0851GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8828/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion area Jun 25-27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27 low, Jun 20 high

*SUP 4: Stg0.8772 Initial recovery high Jun 21, now support

*COMMENTARY* Daily studies remained supportive and has now been successful in

its attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which had capped rallies

over the last couple of months. A high of Stg0.8890 so far on the day, as the

topside again tracks toward the upper 1% volatility band. This and the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 are the barriers to a higher Stg0.8911-Stg0.8922

move. Support now Stg0.8828-Stg0.8810 but loss of Stg0.8797 will disappoint.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7407 The Bar To A Higher $0.7423-$0.7460 Recovery

*RES 4: $0.7500 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7323

*RES 3: $0.7457/60 Jun 22 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7423 Jun 26 high

*RES 1: $0.7407 Jun 27 high

*PRICE: $0.7395 @0904GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7362 Jun 28 high, now support

*SUP 2: $0.7336/40 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 3: $0.7323/27 Jun 27 low, 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136

*SUP 4: $0.7313 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* $0.7347-$0.7345 support gave way this week and the longer term

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7327 had its cage rattled. A low of $0.7323 on

Wednesday, as we so far hold above the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7313. This

being the protection against a further $0.7252-$0.7235 fall. Meanwhile, back

above $0.7362-$0.7385 now has $0.7407 in the way of a higher $0.7423-$0.7460

rise. Meanwhile, $0.7362-$0.7336 reverts to support.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Loss Of $1.3261 Concerns After 76.4% Fibo Caps Gains

*RES 4: $1.3404 Equality rise from $1.2528 to $1.2249-$1.3125

*RES 3: $1.3385/87 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061, Jun 27 high

*RES 2: $1.3352 Jun 28 high

*RES 1: $1.3285/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3222 @0907GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3210/20 Jun 15 high, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3147/59 1% volatility band, Jun 18 low

*SUP 3: $1.3114 Jun 15 low

*SUP 4: $1.3052 Jun 13 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* This month's recovery, broke above the top of the 9 month bull

channel and also the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348. It has however found the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at $1.3385 a significant barrier. This and the equality rise

target at $1.3404 are the primary contenders to put a halt to this rise, at

least for the time being. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost, raising

corrective concerns of gains from at least the Jun 14 low at $1.2950.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Continues, $1246.9 Now Protects Against $1236.6 Return 

*RES 4: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1276.6 Jun 20 high

*RES 2: $1272.7 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1251.8 @0910GMT

*SUP 1: $1246.9 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which

raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the December

2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.

Below and with the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the risk is for a test

to the 3 month channel base at $1246.9. Resistance $1261.2-$1272.7 keeps focus

lower. The Dec 12 low at $1236.6 is next on the agenda below $1246.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]