MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1889 Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 2: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 1: $1.1774 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1772 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1723 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 3: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the $1.1723 resistance took its toll last week with a

break and close above Friday only to pause ahead of the 55-DMA. The

$1.1889-1.1924 region where the 55-WMA ($1.1924) is noted is key. Bulls now need

a close above the 55-WMA to shift initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100

($1.2019) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs are found. Bears now need a close below $1.1670

to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3314

*RES 4: $1.3458 55-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.3446 High June 14 

*RES 2: $1.3405 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.3362 Hourly resistance July 6

*PRICE: $1.3330 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3326 Hourly resistance July 9 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3297 Hourly resistance July 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3274 High July 5 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3254 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The rally from a dip below the 100-WMA ($1.3078) bought bulls

breathing room in past weeks but bulls continue to look for a close above

$1.3314 (June 22 high) to confirm focus on $1.3404-1.3528 where the 55-WMA

($1.3458) & 55-DMA ($1.3405) are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.3274 to

gain breathing room and below $1.3201 to return focus to 2018 $1.2995-1.3048

where 2018 lows are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.78 High June 6

*PRICE: Y110.48 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.13 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.91 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where May highs

are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish

hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.23-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.23) is

noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below the

200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to confirm a break of the

bull channel base (Y110.27) off 2018 lows return pressure to Y109.01. A close

below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.34

*RES 4: Y131.47 55-WMA

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y130.34 Highs June 13 & 14

*RES 1: Y130.28 100-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.02 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.42 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 3: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support

*COMMENTARY: Last week saw a pop above the daily bear channel top (Y129.67) but

hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is a concern. Bulls now need a close above

Y130.34 to confirm breaks of 55 (Y129.42) & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top to

shift immediate focus to Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA (Y131.95) is noted.

Bears now need a close below Y129.09 to gain breathing room and below Y128.40 to

shift immediate focus back to Y126.22.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8868-0.8904 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8890 High June 29 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8868 High July 2

*PRICE: Gbp0.8822 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8803 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is currently supporting with bears continuing to look

for a close below Gbp0.8779 to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8782), 100 (Gbp0.8784)

& 21-DMAs and to shift focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715. The bounces from the

21-DMA retain focus on the Gbp0.8868-0.8904 region with a close above shifting

immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top is noted at Gbp0.8872

and has limited follow through last week.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3222 - High July 2 

*RES 3: $1.3182 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3161 - High July 4 

*RES 1: $1.3120 - Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*PRICE: $1.3082 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3040 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 2: $1.2995 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: $1.2951 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 4: $1.2913 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains offered with focus currently on $1.2995-1.3040

where a bull channel base and 55-DMA are situated. Bears look for a close below

the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of the $1.2731-1.2826 region

where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and the 200-DMA are noted. Bulls need

a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $1.3268 (June 26 high)

to shift focus back to 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7502 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7481 - High June 15

*PRICE: $0.7472 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7444 - High July 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7426 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 & 18mth lows last week

with the pair trading at the week's high Friday. Bulls now need a close above

$0.7481 to hint at a move back to $0.7615-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7615) & 200

($0.7693) are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg higher before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1262.7-1272.7 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1272.7 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1261.4 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1257.0 - Hourly breakout level July 9 

*SUP 2: $1250.7 - Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 4: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1234.0). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls need a close above $1262.7 to

return initial focus to $1272.7 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting O/S

studies are a concern for bears.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]