MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Returns To $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1688 Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1675 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1647 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA was less than

ideal for bulls and now sees pressure on the 21-DMA as the euro remains offered.

Bears shift focus back to the $1.1506-89 support region with below the 21-DMA to

add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above $1.1790 to confirm

traction above the 55-DMA and above the 55-WMA ($1.1922) to shift initial focus

to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2001) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3188

*RES 4: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 3: $1.3325 Hourly support July 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 1: $1.3225 Hourly resistance July 11

*PRICE: $1.3213 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3188 Low July 9 

*SUP 2: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.3314 resistance lacked follow through with

the move aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA Monday. Bears need a close

below $1.3188 to reconfirm focus on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted.

Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-WMA ($1.3455) to shift initial

focus to $1.3586-1.3711 where 100 ($1.3660) & 200 ($1.3586) DMAs are located.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.39 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.45 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs has provided the base for

continued fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus now shifting to the

Y113.24-74 region where 2018 & Dec highs are located. Daily studies approaching

O/B and the Bollinger top (Y111.82) are the key concern for bulls. Bears now

need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift

focus back to Y109.95-110.75 where key DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018

lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y133.48 Monthly High Apr 24

*RES 3: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 2: Y131.93 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.49 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y131.29 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.95 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Hourly support July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to layers of resistance took its toll with the

pair breaking above the 100-DMA (Y130.24) and Y130.34 resistance. Bulls take

comfort as the pair gains topside traction and focus on Y131.49-93 where the

55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies at O/B levels are the key concern

for bulls. Overall bulls look for a close above the 200-DMA to target

Y133.48-135.67 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. Bears now look for a

close below Y130.64 to gain breathing room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move

back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA to confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8779 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8833 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8811 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally

that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance Monday. Bulls need a close

above this level to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger

top is noted at Gbp0.8887 and recently limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779

support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55

(Gbp0.8789), 100 (Gbp0.8784) & 21-DMAs, shifting focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: TECHS: Channel Base Confirms Significance

*RES 4: $1.3490 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.3384 - Monthly High June 27 

*RES 2: $1.3268 - High June 29 

*RES 1: $1.3222 - High July 2

*PRICE: $1.3195 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3161 - High July 4 now support

*SUP 2: $1.3067 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: $1.3060 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 4: $1.3014 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base off Apr lows confirmed significance

with an aggressive bounce that sees the pair flirting with 21-DMA ($1.3210) and

pressuring $1.3222-68. Bulls now look for a close above $1.3268 to shift initial

focus to $1.3384 June highs and overall focus to $1.3490-1.3553 where daily bull

channel tops are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.3161 to gain breathing

room and below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of the

$1.2731-1.2864 region where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and the 200-DMA

are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 3: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly resistance July 11

*RES 1: $0.7400 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7380 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7321 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA reconfirms immediate focus on 2018 lows.

Bears look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017

lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance

have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a

close above $0.7415 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move back to $0.7602-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7602) & 200 ($0.7687) DMAs are located

with above $0.7552 confirming.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressuring LT Rising TL Off 2015 Low

*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.5 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 1: $1246.8 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1244.6 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1241.2 - LT Rising TL off 2015 low 

*SUP 2: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below the

200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls still need a close above

the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6 where

the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]