MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 3: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 2: $1.1695 High July 12

*RES 1: $1.1649 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1625 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $1.1536 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA ($1.1740) was

less than ideal for bulls and the break below the 21-DMA leaving the euro

looking offered. Bears currently focus on the $1.1506-89 support region. Below

$1.1311 remains needed to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1446) & 200 ($1.1386) WMAs

and target $1.0819. Bulls now need a close above $1.1790 to confirm traction

above the 55-DMA and above the 55-WMA ($1.1922) to shift initial focus to

$1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1994) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3190 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 3: $1.3244 High July 12 

*RES 2: $1.3190 Hourly resistance July 13 

*RES 1: $1.3164 Hourly support July 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3119 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $1.3076 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.3314 resistance lacked follow through with

the move aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA Monday. The break of $1.3188

has lacked follow thorough but bears now focus on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows

are noted. Bulls now look for a close above $1.3190 to gain breathing room. A

close above $1.3362 is then needed to shift initial focus to the 55-WMA

($1.3454). Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.86 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.71 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus now shifting to the Y113.24-74

region where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. Daily studies

approaching O/B and the Bollinger top (Y112.27) are the key concern for bulls

with potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to

ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.75

where key DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 3: Y131.92 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.52 Hourly resistance July 13

*RES 1: Y131.49 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y131.02 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.64 Hourly support July 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 4: Y129.29 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and aggressive reversal following the

pop above the 55-WMA is less than ideal for bulls when combined with very O/B

daily studies looking to correct. Bears now look for a close below Y130.64 to

gain breathing room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with

below the 55-DMA (Y129.30) to confirm. Overall bulls look for a close above the

200-DMA to target Y133.48-135.67 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8779 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8853 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8817 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally

that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance Monday. Bulls need a close

above Gbp0.8904 to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger

top is noted at Gbp0.8884 and recently limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779

support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55

(Gbp0.8790), 100 (Gbp0.8785) & 21-DMAs, shifting focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3268

*RES 4: $1.3498 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.3384 - Monthly High June 27 

*RES 2: $1.3268 - High June 29 

*RES 1: $1.3222 - High July 2

*PRICE: $1.3194 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3151 - Low July 12

*SUP 2: $1.3075 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: $1.3067 - Low July 9

*SUP 4: $1.3020 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base off Apr lows confirmed significance

with an aggressive bounce that saw the pair flirting with 21-DMA ($1.3212) and

pressuring $1.3222-68. Bulls look for a close above $1.3268 to shift initial

focus to $1.3384 June highs and overall focus to $1.3490-1.3553 where daily bull

channel tops are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.3151 to gain breathing

room and below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of the

$1.2731-1.2864 region where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and the 200-DMA

are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7490 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7423 - Low July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7373 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7327 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to

tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7423 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA

to hint at a move back to $0.7598-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7598) & 200 ($0.7685)

DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 2: $1257.8 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1240.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1233.9 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows ($1241.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below

the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close

above $1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6

where the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to initially target

$1284.0-1292.1.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]