MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1733 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1697 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1610 Low July 13 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1544 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1733) was lacking last week and

resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below

this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to

confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls

now need a close above $1.1790 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above

the 55-WMA ($1.1927) to shift initial focus to $1.1983-1.2053 where 100

($1.1988) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3195

*RES 4: $1.3446 High June 14 

*RES 3: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 2: $1.3346 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3300 High July 10

*PRICE: $1.3257 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3195 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 2: $1.3144 Hourly resistance July 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.3079 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.3190 buys bulls breathing room but the $1.3362

resistance remains key. A close above $1.3362 remains needed to shift initial

focus to the 55-WMA ($1.3460). The recovery from ahead of the $1.3092 support is

a concern for bears who are focused on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted.

Bears now need a close below $1.3195 to ease pressure on resistance layers and

below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June 2017 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.86 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.45 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region where the

200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top

(Y112.44) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35

to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.78 where key DMAs and the bull channel base

off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 3: Y131.92 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.70 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y131.55 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y131.51 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and aggressive reversal following the

pop above the 55-WMA is less than ideal for bulls when combined with very O/B

daily studies looking to correct. Bears now look for a close below Y130.64 to

gain breathing room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with

below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to confirm. Overall bulls look for a close above the

200-DMA to target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21 & 200-DMAs Pressured 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8838 Hourly resistance July 16

*PRICE: Gbp0.8825 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8819 200-DMA, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally

that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance Monday. Bulls need a close

above Gbp0.8904 to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger

top is noted at Gbp0.8874 and recently limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779

support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55

(Gbp0.8791) & 100 (Gbp0.8785), shifting focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: $1.3268 - High June 29 

*RES 3: $1.3222 - High July 2 

*RES 2: $1.3208 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3180 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3146 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3084 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 2: $1.3067 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: $1.3025 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: $1.2938 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at the $1.3208-68 region where the 21-DMA is noted has

taken its toll with the pair looking a little offered and focus now on layers of

support $1.3025-84 where the 55-DMA and bull channel base are situated. Bears

now need a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of the

$1.2731-1.2864 region where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and the 200-DMA

are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3268 to shift initial

focus to $1.3384 June highs and overall focus to $1.3507-1.3564 where daily bull

channel tops are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7488 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 1: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7430 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7398 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to

tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA

to hint at a move back to $0.7594-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7594) & 200 ($0.7684)

DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1271.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 2: $1256.0 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1243.2 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with gold now flirting with the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below

the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close

above $1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to

$1271.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted and above $1272.6 now to initially

target $1283.4-1292.1 where the bear channel top off Apr highs and the 55-DMA

($1283.4) are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]