MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Attempts Clearance Of $1.1740-$1.1745 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1839 Equality rise from $1.1575 to $1.1527-$1.1791

*RES 3: $1.1805 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1775/91 Hourly resistance, Jul 9 high

*RES 1: $1.1751 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1736 @0748GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1679/84 Initial high Jul 20, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1645/55 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20

*SUP 3: $1.1626 Jul 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.1613 Jul 13 low

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band came under pressure last Thursday but

survived the test, before launching into a correction of losses seen since the

Jul 9 high at $1.1791. On Friday this recovery was capped by the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.1740, and the last prominent peak at $1.1745. Will need to

see a sustained rally through this area before thoughts can turn to a higher

$1.1775-$1.1839 rise. In the interim, nearest support rises to $1.1684-$1.1679.

CABLE TECHS: Recovers Well After Challenge To 6 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.3293 Jul 16 high

*RES 3: $1.3269 Jul 17 high

*RES 2: $1.3214/17 76.4% Fibo of $1.3293-$1.2958, Jul 16 low

*RES 1: $1.3165/75 61.8% $1.3293-$1.2958, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3155 @0753GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3084 Jul 19 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.3050 Initial recovery high Jul 19, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2995 Jul 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.2958/65 Jul 19 low, 6 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday saw the base of the 6 week bear channel come under

pressure, a slight dip below, before rallying strongly on Friday. The recovery

aims to test resistance from $1.3165-$1.3175 next, any higher and the

$1.3214-$1.3217 area comes back into view. As a consequence, support moves up

accordingly. The first levels of note coming from the Jul 19 high at $1.3084 and

then $1.3050. A loss of the latter would concern again.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pullback Continues, Y111.14-Y110.96 Support Gives Way

*RES 4: Y112.25/35 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20

*RES 3: Y112.05 Jul 19 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y111.70 Hourly high Jul 20

*RES 1: Y111.30/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.96 @0806GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.57/65 8 week rising support line, 50% Fibo 

*SUP 2: Y110.28 Jul 4 low

*SUP 3: Y110.05 61.8% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18

*SUP 4: Y109.81 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the pullback continue, toward Y111.39-Y111.36 support,

this being the brake to a deeper Y111.14-Y110.96 fall, where stronger questions

would be asked of near term direction. The latter has given way today, leaving

Y110.65-Y110.57 as the next key support area. Resistance falls to

Y111.30-Y111.35, above would allow some near term respite, with Y111.70 and the

Jul 19 low at Y112.05 waiting higher. Below Y110.65 and look to Y110.28 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Continues To Lose Ground After 1% Volatility Band Caps

*RES 4: Y131.50/53 Hourly high Jul 18, Jul 17 low

*RES 3: Y131.21 Jul 20 high

*RES 2: Y130.88 Jul 18 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.50/60 Hourly resistance, initial low Jul 20

*PRICE: Y130.14 @0820GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Jul 11 low

*SUP 2: Y129.65/78 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99

*SUP 3: Y129.26 76.4% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99

*SUP 4: Y129.09 2 mkonth rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Having broken above key Y131.38-Y131.40 resistance, the rally was

frustrated by the upper 1% volatility band at Y131.99 last Tuesday. The

subsequent fall has now broken below initial support from Y130.42 and the 50%

Fibo retrace level at Y130.20. These were the protection to the key near term

level from the Jul 11 low at Y129.91. Loss would spoil recent upside momentum.

Meanwhile, Y130.50-Y130.88 forms immediate resistance to any recovery hopes.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Approaching Decent Resistance Between Stg0.8966-Stg0.8969

*RES 4: Stg0.9032 Oct 12 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8966/69 1% vol, Mar 7 high, 3 month bull channel 

*RES 1: Stg0.8958 Jul 20 high 

*PRICE: Stg0.8921 @0825GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8913/19 Hourly support, Jul 20 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8890/99 Jul 29, Jul 9 highs, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8866/73 Jul 13 high, Jul 17 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8850 Congestion area Jun 28-Jul 17

*COMMENTARY* Last week's break above the 9 month bear channel top at Stg0.8908

has seen a rally towards next key resistance from the Stg0.8966-Stg0.8969

region. This the upper 1% volatility band, the Mar 7 high and the current level

of the 3 month bull channel top projection. While capped into here, look for

support from between Stg0.8919-Stg0.8913 and then Stg0.8899-Stg0.8890. Loss of

the latter would caution now. Above Stg0.8969 and not much until Stg0.9013.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Once Again Faces $0.7443-$0.7445 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7515 2018 daily falling resistance line

*RES 3: $0.7493 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310

*RES 2: $0.7474/84 1% volatility band, Jul 9-10 highs

*RES 1: $0.7443/45 Ju1 16, Jul 19 highs, 76.4% $0.7484-$0.7318

*PRICE: $0.7414 @0830GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7380/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7360 Hourly congestion Jul 19-Jul 20

*SUP 3: $0.7343 Jul 18 low

*SUP 4: $0.7310/18 Jul 2, Jul 3, Jul 20 lows

*COMMENTARY* Still trying to find a base from within the $0.7318-$0.7310 area.

The latest fall held around the lower 1% volatility band on Friday. The

subsequent bounce has seen us once again reaching towards $0.7443-$0.7445

resistance. The latter a 76.4% Fibo retrace of losses from the the Jul 9-10

highs at $0.7484. Higher and the upper 1% band at $0.7474 and then that $0.7484

level prohibit a $0.7493-$0.7515 challenge. Support $0.7385-$0.7380.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 1% Volatility Band Caps Gains

*RES 4: $1.3246 Initial pullback Jul 20, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3227 Hourly base Jul 19, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3190/00 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.3160/65 Jul 19 low, hourly recovery Jul 20

*PRICE: $1.3136 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3110/18 Jul 16 Jul 17 lows, 76.4% $1.3065-$1.3290

*SUP 2: $1.3065/67 Jul 11 low, Jun 5 high

*SUP 3: $1.3058 50% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387

*SUP 4: $1.3039 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week's rally was constrained at $1.3290 by the upper 1%

volatility band, also falling shy of a test to the next key resistance level,

the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3311. This of the $1.3387-$1.3065 fall between Jun

27 and Jul 11. While capped between here, the risk will be for lower and another

look at $1.3118-$1.3110 support. The latter the protection against another

$1.3065 decline and perhaps $1.3058-$1.3039. Resistance from $1.3160-$1.3200.

GOLD TECHS: Slips Below 61.8% Fibo Level Before Recovering

*RES 4: $1266.0 Jul 9 high

*RES 3: $1253.1 76.4% Fibo of $1266.0-$1211.4

*RES 2: $1245.7 Jul 16 high

*RES 1: $1238.0 Jul 3 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1230.4 @0840GMT

*SUP 1: $1216.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1211.4 Jul 19 low

*SUP 3: $1204.8 Jul 10 2017 low

*SUP 4: $1195.0 Mar 10 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week slipped below support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at $1215.7 and posted a low of $1211.4, before staging a near term recovery.

This meets first resistance of note from the Jul 3 low at $1238.0. Back above

here would allow a further $1245.7 rise, with the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1253.1 a stiffer test above. Meanwhile, support rises to $1216.9, loss would

caution again, $1204.8 the next support to watch below $1211.4.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]