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MNI View: Dovish overall but little steer for December

BOE
  • Compared to the curve immediately before the decision, the SONIA futures curve is around 5 ticks higher.
  • OIS market pricing now peaks at around 169bp - so a Bank Rate of below 4.75%.
  • The BOE has said that it thinks the rate should be below the 5.25% rate used in their forecast assumption, but above the 3.00% rate we have currently. But gave no steer of where in that range it should be.
  • The forecasts point to very low inflation and recession, so overall this should be seen as dovish.
  • We have no steer on whether December will be 50bp or another 75bp. But it seems as though hikes of larger than 75bp can largely be ruled out.
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