MNI: Von der Leyen Nears Backing For Second Term - MEPs
MNI (BRUSSELS ) - Talks between Ursula von der Leyen and the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group are closing in on securing her a second term as European Commission president, EP sources told MNI.
Von der Leyen should pick up the bulk of votes from the two biggest political blocs in the European Parliament, the centre-right EPP and centre-left S+D, but around 15-20% of their members are likely to withhold support, meaning she can only be confident of 320 in her favour, 41 short of a majority in the secret ballot of 720 MEPs. This leaves her dependent on support from the Greens and the rightist ECR.
One senior parliamentary source said there had been a significant "movement" as of Tuesday morning and that ECR MEPs seemed ready to vote for Von der Leyen in larger numbers, particularly those from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. (See MNI: Meloni To Back Von Der Leyen In EU Commission Deal-Source)
“UvL should sail in. I hear support from the ECR is bigger than previously expected. That seems to be specifically from Meloni’s delegation, but maybe not only. That should do the trick,” the source said.
Another senior EU politician agreed:
"The Fratelli [Brothers of Italy] are leaning towards voting for. That means a majority of 410 - 420 votes in favour, given a 15% no show or abstention rate, to be expected in a secret ballot."
A German MEP also supported that scenario:
"I would expect Von der Leyen to receive a few votes from both the Greens and the ECR, which ultimately should get her across the line, probably with a more comfortable majority thah she had last time."
VON DER LEYEN AND MELONI
Other sources noted that on a personal level Von der Leyen and Meloni have always got on well and the promise of a substantial role for Italy in the next Commission would help to get the Italian PM on board.
Some MEPs still think the vote could prove tighter, and that Von der Leyen still needs to work to persuade MEPs of other political groups to vote for her in larger numbers.
“No single group will give her more than 85% of their own votes. Since yesterday though, things are moving in her favour, although it is still tight. 361 is just enough and anything over 370 will still be a triumph.”
The Greens are largely expected to back Von der Leyen, despite her public backtracking on some aspects of the net zero agenda. Another EP source pointed out that the vast bulk of the green agenda legislation has already been passed and that the next five years will only require implementation.
“The Greens are already onboard, you can ignore the theatrics,” another source said.
The centre left S+D has set out demands for the Commission including a call for a central EU fiscal capacity as well as a permanent replacement for the pandemic recovery instrument NGEU when that expires in 2026.
Another EP source thought that hurdle could be easily finessed.
“A well-crafted speech with a broad cross-party appeal on Thursday morning should address their concerns,” another source said, “and it will hardly be her fault if a future German government decides to block it - again.”