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Models Point to Neutral USD Rebalancing Flows into Month-End

FOREX
  • Worth recalling today is month-end value date, meaning markets will be on watch for any corporate USD demand through NY hours, with the personal income/spending data and the September PCE deflator in focus.
  • Month-end FX rebalancing models are generally neutral toward the USD, with both Citi and Credit Agricole's models pointing to no overall directional bias on the greenback.
  • This is due to the weakness in US bond and equity markets being countered by weakness elsewhere, and when adjusted for market caps, rebalancing should be broadly neutral.
  • Credit Agricole write that the strongest buy signal this month is the USD against the AUD, while their corporate flow model looks for EUR selling at month-end.
  • Citi see fixed income hedge rebalancing flows as being mildly USD positive, except against the JPY due to JGB underperformance.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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