Moderation In Core Inflation Pressures In Line With MAS's Recent On-hold Outcome

Singapore inflation for March came in a touch below expectations. The headline was expected at 5.5% y/y. Still, we continue to track lower relative to Sep 2022 peaks of 7.50% y/y. Core inflation showed some signs of easing, coming in at 5.0% y/y, versus 5.1% expected and 5.5% prior.

• Looking at the detail, 8 out of the 10 sub categories saw slower y/y momentum compared to Feb. Only education and miscellaneous good and services saw upticks (and modest ones at that to 3%y/y).
• Still looking at the m/m data we had pick up in food and transport costs, as well as recreation. Hence the authorities we will be mindful of a renewed pick up in underlying inflation pressures.
• At this stage though, this data won't shift market expectations around the MAS policy outlook and is likely to reinforce the recent on hold stance from mid April.
• The SGD NEER is down slightly today, last around -1.12% from the top end of the band (per Goldman Sachs estimates). This is lows back to mid-March, relative to deviation from the top-end of the band.