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Moderation In CPI-ATE Momentum In Feb

NORWAY
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Statistics Norway's seasonally adjusted CPI-ATE series was 0.0% M/M. This meant inflation momentum, measured as the 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate, moderated to 3.93% Y/Y (vs 4.71% in January). This was the lowest since January 2022.

  • Looking at the annualised M/M development of the SA CPI-ATE series (image below), momentum decelerated over 1, 3, 6 and 12-month horizons.
  • While the 1M annualised change is volatile, the downward trend over 3/6-month horizons remains in place. However, the 3/6-month run rates remain at above-target levels.
  • Today's print will probably warrant a downward shift of the Norges Bank's policy rate path in the March MPR forecasts, all else equal.
  • The main question ahead of next week's meeting is how the Norges Bank weighs up inflation outcomes and the NOK in forming its rate path.
  • The I-44 index is 4.5% lower (indicating a stronger NOK) compared to before the December MPR meeting, but there is still a risk the Norges Bank will want to retain its hawkish guidance to protect the currency from a renewed weakening.



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Statistics Norway's seasonally adjusted CPI-ATE series was 0.0% M/M. This meant inflation momentum, measured as the 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate, moderated to 3.93% Y/Y (vs 4.71% in January). This was the lowest since January 2022.

  • Looking at the annualised M/M development of the SA CPI-ATE series (image below), momentum decelerated over 1, 3, 6 and 12-month horizons.
  • While the 1M annualised change is volatile, the downward trend over 3/6-month horizons remains in place. However, the 3/6-month run rates remain at above-target levels.
  • Today's print will probably warrant a downward shift of the Norges Bank's policy rate path in the March MPR forecasts, all else equal.
  • The main question ahead of next week's meeting is how the Norges Bank weighs up inflation outcomes and the NOK in forming its rate path.
  • The I-44 index is 4.5% lower (indicating a stronger NOK) compared to before the December MPR meeting, but there is still a risk the Norges Bank will want to retain its hawkish guidance to protect the currency from a renewed weakening.