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Modest Cheapening With MNI Chicago PMI and SLOOS Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are off overnight lows but still trade slightly cheaper across the curve with yields 1-3bp higher on Friday’s close, with the sell-off still led by 10s despite a block buy in TY futures of ~$402k DV01 earlier helping stabilise the cheapening.
  • Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’23 voter) is the second FOMC speaker post the decision blackout, although increased data dependency should see greater focus on the MNI Chicago PMI and SLOOS.
  • 2YY +1.3bp at 4.887%, 5YY +2.5bp at 4.202%, 10YY +2.8bp at 3.979% and 30YY +1.8bp at 4.029%.
  • TYU3 trades 2+ ticks lower at 111-08+ but remains within Friday’s range, with Friday’s low of 110-25+ providing initial support whilst resistance is seen at 112-07 (Jul 27 high). Volumes at 260k are below the recent average for the time of day, which was skewed higher by last week's BoJ reaction, but in keeping with more typical levels.
  • Data: MNI Chicago PMI Jul (0945ET), Dallas Fed Mfg. Activity Jul (1030ET), SLOOS (1400ET)
  • Fedspeak: Chicago Fed Goolsbee, Yahoo interview (0920ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 13W, $58B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)
  • Recall that Fed Chair Powell provided a preview of the SLOOS last week, noting "I would just say it's broadly consistent with what you would expect. You've got lending conditions tight and getting a little tighter. You've got weak demand. And you know, it gives a picture of pretty tight credit conditions in the economy. I think it's really hard to tease out whether, how much of that is from this source or that source, but I think what matters is the overall picture is of tight and tightening lending conditions."
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