July 16, 2024 12:54 GMT
Modest Hawkish Adj. In Fed Pricing On Data, Still A Little Over 65bp Of '24 Cuts Priced
STIR
Some modest hawkish adjustments seen in the wake of the firmer-than-expected retail sales and import price data.
- Fed Funds futures show ~27bp of cuts through the September FOMC and ~66bp of easing through the Dec FOMC (vs. 28 & 68bp ahead of the data).
- Ultimately, inflation and labour market data trends underpin the idea of fairly imminent easing from the Fed, with a little over 2.5x 25bp cuts priced through year end vs. ~40bp of cuts a little over a month ago and cycle extremes of ~28bp seen in early May.
91 words