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STIR: Modest Hawkish Adjustment In Fed Pricing After PPI

STIR

The combination of hawkish leaning PCE components within the PPI reading (compared with the CPI readthrough, confirming our thoughts from yesterday), coupled with the lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims readings, counters the knee-jerk dovish move that followed the softer-than-expected headline PPI data.

  • Fed Funds pricing little changed to 2bp less dovish vs. pre-data levels, with 7.5bp of cuts priced through May, 22.5bp showing through June, 33bp through July, 50bp through Sep and 68bp through Dec.
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The combination of hawkish leaning PCE components within the PPI reading (compared with the CPI readthrough, confirming our thoughts from yesterday), coupled with the lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims readings, counters the knee-jerk dovish move that followed the softer-than-expected headline PPI data.

  • Fed Funds pricing little changed to 2bp less dovish vs. pre-data levels, with 7.5bp of cuts priced through May, 22.5bp showing through June, 33bp through July, 50bp through Sep and 68bp through Dec.