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Modest moves downwards - respecting recent technical support

BONDS
  • Core fixed income has moved lower this morning, albeit respecting recent ranges. Bund futures remain above Friday's lows, gilt futures are a little below Friday's lows while Treasury futures are challenging (but have yet to break below) Wednesday's lows.
  • The main event of the day will be the release of Eurozone flash October HICP at 10:00BST / 6:00ET. This follows on from some volatile national prints at the back end of last week.
  • This week will also see focus on central banks with the Fed headlining on Wednesday. 75bp is expected but more importantly for markets will be what steer the Fed puts on future moves.
  • The Bank of England announcement on Thursday is widely expected to also see a 75bp hike (the first from the BoE). The Bank is also expected to show weak inflation at the 2/3-year policy relevant horizons in its MPR and to maintain its previous guidance.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-12+ today at 110-19+ with 10y UST yields up 4.8bp at 4.064% and 2y yields up 7.3bp at 4.492%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.78 today at 138.55 with 10y Bund yields up 4.1bp at 2.140% and Schatz yields up 2.3bp at 1.948%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.62 today at 102.69 with 10y yields up 1.8bp at 3.490% and 2y yields up 1.0bp at 3.209%.
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