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Modest Pulling Forward Of FOMC Hike Expectations

STIR
  • With the Sintra panel wrapped up, the main impact on FOMC-dated OIS has been a small uptick in near-term expectations for the Jul & Sept meetings but subsequent meetings have mostly pared the initial rise.
  • Now sitting at +20bp for July (+1bp since the panel started) and a cumulative +26bp for Sept (+2bp), with the main impetus coming early on with Powell not ruling out consecutive hikes.
  • The Dec’23 rate is back to pre-Powell levels, still almost fully holding the additional hike priced from the current effective of 5.07%.

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