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AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Cheaper After US Payrolls, More Trump Tariffs Due Monday

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.5) are modestly cheaper after US tsys came under pressure after solid labour market data. 

  • US tsys gapped richer after lower-than-expected jobs gains for January, and a small dip in the unemployment rate -- but quickly reversed on robust two-month net revisions along with a smaller-than-expected benchmark revision.
  • The combination saw Fed rate cut expectations trimmed again to 37bp of cuts for 2025 vs 43bp pre-data.
  • Headlines have crossed from Bloomberg, with US President Trump stating that the US will announce tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports from Monday. Trump didn't announce a time when these tariffs will take effect.
  • Cash ACGBs are3-4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps higher.
  • The bills strip flat to -3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (128%), with the probability of a February cut at 89% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Today, the local calendar is empty.
  • This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 2.75% 21 May 2041 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday. 
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ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.5) are modestly cheaper after US tsys came under pressure after solid labour market data. 

  • US tsys gapped richer after lower-than-expected jobs gains for January, and a small dip in the unemployment rate -- but quickly reversed on robust two-month net revisions along with a smaller-than-expected benchmark revision.
  • The combination saw Fed rate cut expectations trimmed again to 37bp of cuts for 2025 vs 43bp pre-data.
  • Headlines have crossed from Bloomberg, with US President Trump stating that the US will announce tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports from Monday. Trump didn't announce a time when these tariffs will take effect.
  • Cash ACGBs are3-4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps higher.
  • The bills strip flat to -3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (128%), with the probability of a February cut at 89% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Today, the local calendar is empty.
  • This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 2.75% 21 May 2041 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.